# Dario Amodei says a one-year AI revenue miss could bankrupt a firm

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[News](https://realalpha.app/news/) · Dwarkesh Podcast

By [Rushabh Sheth](https://realalpha.app/news/authors/rushabh-sheth/) Oct. 24, 2026, 1:05 a.m. ET

Dario Amodei, who runs Anthropic, said on the Dwarkesh Podcast that buying computing power for AI is a bet that can sink a company. He spoke in an episode posted in February.

This matters because AI companies are spending heavily on data centers, which are buildings full of computers. Those bills have to be paid from what customers spend on the products. A company that guesses wrong on demand can fail.

Amodei said a data center takes a year or two to build, so a company must decide now how much to buy for 2027. He said Anthropic's revenue has grown 10x a year and stood near $10 billion at the start of this year. If that pace held, he said, he could buy trillions of dollars of computing power. But he said revenue might come in lower than that.

"If I'm just off by a year in that rate of growth" is how he put the risk at 52:10. He said that would mean going bankrupt. So Anthropic buys less, in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

The story behind the moment comes from [Yahoo Finance on MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/spacex-ceo-elon-musk-is-one-of-one-will-the-market-give-anthropic-s-dario-amodei-the-same-leeway/ar-AA2fWf3z). On Friday it asked whether the market will give Anthropic's Amodei the same leeway as Elon Musk. It reports that Musk's companies get the benefit of the doubt and that Anthropic may not.

Amodei also said some other AI companies may not understand the risks they are taking. That is his view, and he named none of them. He said Anthropic sells mostly to businesses, whose revenue is steadier than consumer revenue. He said things would have to go badly for Anthropic to be in financial trouble.

Watch the 7 minutes where he walks through the math. [46:49](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=2809)

## Sources

- The moment: [Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”](https://realalpha.app/s/compute-commitments-must-price-in-a-one-year-demand-miss/?t=3130), Dwarkesh Podcast, Feb. 13, 2026, from 46:49 to 54:00
- The story: [SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is 'one of one': Will the market give Anthropic's Dario Amodei the same leeway?](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/technology/spacex-ceo-elon-musk-is-one-of-one-will-the-market-give-anthropic-s-dario-amodei-the-same-leeway/ar-AA2fWf3z), Yahoo Finance on MSN, Oct. 23, 2026
- Earlier from Dario Amodei: [AI timelines hinge on an exponential, not an AGI label](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-timelines-hinge-on-an-exponential-not-an-agi-label/), Big Technology Podcast, Jul 2025
- Earlier from Dario Amodei: [Each model can make money while the company spends at a loss](https://realalpha.app/s/each-model-can-make-money-while-the-company-spends-at-a-loss/), Big Technology Podcast, Jul 2025
- Earlier from Dario Amodei: [Safety needs to advance alongside increasingly capable AI](https://realalpha.app/s/safety-needs-to-advance-alongside-increasingly-capable-ai/), Big Technology Podcast, Jul 2025

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