# Michael Kofman

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/people/michael-kofman/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

Real Alpha has cut 8 moments of Michael Kofman (Senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) talking, from an interview on Lex Fridman Podcast published Nov 10, 2026.

- Role: Senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- About: Led foundational research on Russia’s military and studies Ukrainian forces and Eurasian security at Carnegie.
- On X: https://x.com/KofmanMichael

## What Michael Kofman said

- [Offensive success depends on suppressing enemy drone units](https://realalpha.app/s/offensive-success-depends-on-suppressing-enemy-drone-units/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 5 min
  > “And the side that is able to suppress the other side's drone units through drone strikes” — Michael Kofman · [27:19](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=1639)
- [Analysts over-rationalized Russia's invasion plan](https://realalpha.app/s/analysts-over-rationalized-russias-invasion-plan/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min
  > “I learned as an analyst that even if all the pieces kind of look right, people naturally want to believe it's anything other than that.” — Michael Kofman · [1:04:37](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=3877)
- [Bakhmut's symbolic value outlasted its military value](https://realalpha.app/s/bakhmuts-symbolic-value-outlasted-its-military-value/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 6 min
  > “the loss of Bakhmut wasn't nearly that critical at the end of the day.” — Michael Kofman · [1:27:37](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=5257)
- [Russian battlefield reports can distort fire support](https://realalpha.app/s/russian-battlefield-reports-can-distort-fire-support/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min
  > “In some ways, we are fortunate that they have such a cultural falsification of battlefield data because they then organize fire support around lines and positions they don't actually hold.” — Michael Kofman · [1:38:23](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=5903)
- [A ceasefire could leave Ukraine exposed to renewed attack](https://realalpha.app/s/a-ceasefire-could-leave-ukraine-exposed-to-renewed-attack/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 3 min
  > “Ukraine is very vulnerable some months after a ceasefire. Eventually, it'll have to demobilize all the men at the front line” — Michael Kofman · [2:39:29](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=9569)
- [Political leaders may ask how to delay defeat, not win](https://realalpha.app/s/political-leaders-may-ask-how-to-delay-defeat-not-win/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min
  > “what is the amount of troops you need for me to kick this can down the road so that we don't lose the war on my watch?” — Michael Kofman · [1:50:35](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=6635)
- [The Russian military adopted Wagner's assault tactics](https://realalpha.app/s/the-russian-military-adopted-wagners-assault-tactics/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 3 min
  > “So I just want to put this postscript that Wagner as an organization may have died, but it in some ways infected the Russian military.” — Michael Kofman · [2:08:27](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=7707)
- [Russia is spending a large share of its economy on the war](https://realalpha.app/s/russia-is-spending-a-large-share-of-its-economy-on-the-war/)
  Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026 · 6 min
  > “Russia's spending 44% of the government budget on the war and maybe somewhere around 9% to 10% of GDP.” — Michael Kofman · [2:25:26](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/?t=8726)

## The episode

- [Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Zelenskyy, Trump and the Future of Warfare | Lex Fridman Podcast #504](https://realalpha.app/v/2hJkprFnzhY/) · Lex Fridman Podcast · Nov 10, 2026