# What will AI look like in the next few years?

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/q/ai-predictions/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

[All questions](https://realalpha.app/q/)

Question

Of the 25 moments we cut that answer this, 18 look a year or two out, 6 look a decade or more out and one looks about five years out. Tiago Sada said on MTS (Oct 20, 2026) that online services will increasingly be accessed through agents acting with proof delegated by specific users. Sergey Levine said on Minus One (Oct 22, 2026) that robots will eventually generate vast amounts of physical-world data and learn faster by transferring skills across tasks.

Every dated prediction in the moments we cut, with its deadline and what came of it, is in the [predictions ledger](https://realalpha.app/predictions/): of 19 predictions with deadlines, none has come due yet. 4 more have no deadline.

## Where they stand

- In a year or two 18
  - Marc Andreessen
  - Pierre Stock
  - Ivan Burazin
  - Tanishq Abraham ×2
  - Tiago Sada
  - Josh Gao
  - Bernardo Aceituno
  - Alexander Wissner-Gross
  - +7 more
- Within five years 1
  - Alex Reeves
- Ten years and more 6
  - Chris Dixon
  - Sergey Levine
  - George Kurtz
  - Chamath Palihapitiya
  - Alexander Wissner-Gross
  - Jakub Pachocki

## In a year or two 18

1. a16z Podcast · Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min
   **[AI is widening the gap between startups and incumbents](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-is-widening-the-gap-between-startups-and-incumbents/)**
   > “We would have built the whole damn internet. It would have been absolutely incredible.”
   [Marc Andreessen](https://realalpha.app/people/marc-andreessen/) Co-founder & General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz [19:32](https://realalpha.app/v/-9XQMHhpypc/?t=1172)
2. The MAD Podcast · Oct 22, 2026 · 2 min
   **[Mistral says its models speed senior researchers up two to four times](https://realalpha.app/s/mistral-says-its-models-speed-senior-researchers-up-two-to/)**
   > “it accelerates our most senior researcher by a factor two, three or four with our models.”
   [Pierre Stock](https://realalpha.app/builders/pierre-stock/) VP of Science, Mistral AI [1:14:53](https://realalpha.app/v/nxAoCPsGfe8/?t=4493)
3. MTS · Oct 21, 2026 · 2 min
   **[Real-world AI will become more visible in San Francisco](https://realalpha.app/s/real-world-ai-will-become-more-visible-in-san-francisco/)**
   > “i think we're going to see more and more of that actually happening a year from now and we'll probably be quite surprised where that lands.”
   [Ivan Burazin](https://realalpha.app/people/ivan-burazin/) Co-founder & CEO, Daytona [12:01](https://realalpha.app/v/qyuTg6KpEC0/?t=721)
4. MTS · Oct 21, 2026 · 2 min
   **[Cancer AI tools could reach clinical trials within a year](https://realalpha.app/s/cancer-ai-tools-could-reach-clinical-trials-within-a-year/)**
   > “some of these tools could potentially reach these clinical trials, at the very least, definitely like retrospective trials, potentially even prospective trials.”
   [Tanishq Abraham](https://realalpha.app/people/tanishq-abraham/) Co-founder & CEO, Sophont [21:50](https://realalpha.app/v/G3IDxDh6FO4/?t=1310)
5. MTS · Oct 21, 2026 · 3 min
   **[Patient tests may matter before new drugs reach the clinic](https://realalpha.app/s/patient-tests-may-matter-before-new-drugs-reach-the-clinic/)**
   > “that can be done in a lot quicker timeline, in my opinion, compared to like developing drugs from scratch.”
   [Tanishq Abraham](https://realalpha.app/people/tanishq-abraham/) Co-founder & CEO, Sophont [16:39](https://realalpha.app/v/G3IDxDh6FO4/?t=999)
6. MTS · Oct 20, 2026 · 3 min
   **[Agents could prove they act for a specific human](https://realalpha.app/s/agents-could-prove-they-act-for-a-specific-human/)**
   > “being able to delegate your proof of human to your bot”
   [Tiago Sada](https://realalpha.app/builders/tiago-sada/) CPO, World [7:06](https://realalpha.app/v/W9KrNbY2Q6s/?t=426)
7. Training Data · Oct 20, 2026 · 3 min
   **[Constrained jobs will come before household robots](https://realalpha.app/s/constrained-jobs-will-come-before-household-robots/)**
   > “Laundry folding, we spent about a year and a half plus trying to solve. And I think it will absolutely get solved in your term.”
   [Josh Gao](https://realalpha.app/people/josh-gao/) Founder & CEO, Mecka AI [22:59](https://realalpha.app/v/0idrTKCDhuE/?t=1379)
8. MTS · Oct 17, 2026 · 2 min
   **[Enterprise agents will spread across apps and act proactively](https://realalpha.app/s/enterprise-agents-will-spread-across-apps-and-act/)**
   > “proactively suggest actions, suggest next steps. Proactively take actions for you when needed.”
   [Bernardo Aceituno](https://realalpha.app/builders/bernardo-aceituno/) President, Stack AI [18:29](https://realalpha.app/v/cvOgHWMFunE/?t=1109)
9. Moonshots · Oct 15, 2026 · 2 min
   **[In-silico cures for 5,000 diseases may arrive in 2 to 3 years](https://realalpha.app/s/in-silico-cures-for-5-000-diseases-may-arrive-in-2-to-3/)**
   > “I think we're going to see that in the next two to three years maximum.”
   Alexander Wissner-Gross Founder, Reified [57:49](https://realalpha.app/v/A5YVqEpbgaU/?t=3469)
10. Knuckle Up with Nakul · Oct 13, 2026 · 5 min
    **[Agent growth could make compute the next infrastructure bottleneck](https://realalpha.app/s/agent-growth-could-make-compute-the-next-infrastructure/)**
    > “I still think that we are undervaluing just how much that inference is going to come online, how fast these new models are”
    [Jake Cooper](https://realalpha.app/people/jake-cooper/) Founder & CEO, Railway [56:11](https://realalpha.app/v/LQNqM1mA2e8/?t=3371)
11. a16z Podcast · Oct 9, 2026 · 5 min
    **[AI speeds chip design, but fab, memory and power still bind](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-speeds-chip-design-but-fab-memory-and-power-still-bind/)**
    > “I can design the thing in three months, but I can't actually get it into real silicon at scale for nine months.”
    [Pat Gelsinger](https://realalpha.app/people/pat-gelsinger/) General Partner, Playground Global [9:49](https://realalpha.app/v/1Q_7yU7FZ1k/?t=589)
12. a16z Podcast · Oct 9, 2026 · 5 min
    **[The 100 AI chip startups will consolidate to a few winners](https://realalpha.app/s/the-100-ai-chip-startups-will-consolidate-to-a-few-winners/)**
    Pat argues the flood of specialized AI chips is temporary. Shifting workloads, the need for scale and capital, and buyers picking winners will narrow the field.
    [Pat Gelsinger](https://realalpha.app/people/pat-gelsinger/) General Partner, Playground Global
13. a16z Podcast · Oct 9, 2026 · 3 min
    **[Energy capacity will cap the AI buildout](https://realalpha.app/s/energy-capacity-will-cap-the-ai-buildout/)**
    Pat says US energy capacity was flat for 15 years and is growing only about 4% a year. He expects data center projects to default because the power will not be there.
    [Pat Gelsinger](https://realalpha.app/people/pat-gelsinger/) General Partner, Playground Global
14. Minus One · Oct 8, 2026 · 4 min
    **[AI will speed simple builds, while safety-critical work stays hard](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-will-speed-simple-builds-while-safety-critical-work-stays/)**
    > “things that in the past would take a large company a year. Now you'd be able to do with a team of five people in a month.”
    [Dmitri Dolgov](https://realalpha.app/builders/dmitri-dolgov/) Co-CEO, Waymo [43:14](https://realalpha.app/v/Ev2fta0vGJ4/?t=2594)
15. AI & I · Oct 7, 2026 · 2 min
    **[Work will run on company agents while personal agents stay personal](https://realalpha.app/s/work-will-run-on-company-agents-while-personal-agents-stay/)**
    > “I really don't see like, us, or the industry, repeating the chaos of like, every worker gets their coworker, and we're all gonna like double our company size, you know?”
    [Willie Williams](https://realalpha.app/people/willie-williams/) Head of Platform, Every [18:46](https://realalpha.app/v/_pcy1_jU27k/?t=1126)
16. The Cognitive Revolution · Oct 7, 2026 · 3 min
    **[AI is making decades-old system migrations feasible in months](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-is-making-decades-old-system-migrations-feasible-in/)**
    > “instead of planning it as a six-year thing, we're now going to do it in six months.”
    [Woodson Martin](https://realalpha.app/builders/woodson-martin/) CEO, OutSystems [44:10](https://realalpha.app/v/Y2qs-BKoMb4/?t=2650)
17. Lenny's Podcast · Oct 4, 2026 · 2 min
    **[Most internet actions will soon be taken by agents](https://realalpha.app/s/most-internet-actions-will-soon-be-taken-by-agents/)**
    > “I think the majority of actions on the internet will be taken by agents. Models are going to become more cheaper and faster at rates that are, you know, quite incredible.”
    [Tibo Sottiaux](https://realalpha.app/builders/tibo-sottiaux/) Head of ChatGPT, OpenAI [30:55](https://realalpha.app/v/MM-C3JqCXBk/?t=1855)
18. All-In · Oct 2, 2026 · 5 min
    **[Cyber defense will force governments to allocate GPUs](https://realalpha.app/s/cyber-defense-will-force-governments-to-allocate-gpus/)**
    > “So the attempt to try and centralize and manage the control of the software, I think is a fool's errand.”
    David Friedberg CEO, Ohalo [20:34](https://realalpha.app/v/ZJKs08oU1zg/?t=1234)

## Ten years and more 6

1. a16z Podcast · Oct 22, 2026 · 4 min
   **[AI agents may become the internet’s most numerous participants](https://realalpha.app/s/ai-agents-may-become-the-internets-most-numerous/)**
   > “the most numerous participants on the internet will be agents and not people.”
   [Chris Dixon](https://realalpha.app/people/chris-dixon/) [28:59](https://realalpha.app/v/-9XQMHhpypc/?t=1739)
2. Minus One · Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min
   **[General-purpose robots can bootstrap their own data](https://realalpha.app/s/general-purpose-robots-can-bootstrap-their-own-data/)**
   > “The good thing about robots is that they are less specialized. Because, like, it seems counterintuitive.”
   [Sergey Levine](https://realalpha.app/builders/sergey-levine/) Co-founder, Physical Intelligence [25:07](https://realalpha.app/v/5X166Fead8o/?t=1507)
3. No Priors · Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min
   **[Enterprises may reserve frontier models for their hardest tasks](https://realalpha.app/s/enterprises-may-reserve-frontier-models-for-their-hardest/)**
   > “the open weight models right now are so good. Even if they're three months behind, it's plenty for what we need.”
   [George Kurtz](https://realalpha.app/people/george-kurtz/) President & CEO, CrowdStrike [23:28](https://realalpha.app/v/PST8yesYOSo/?t=1408)
4. Moonshots · Oct 21, 2026 · 8 min
   **[Power shortages will constrain AI more than chips](https://realalpha.app/s/power-shortages-will-constrain-ai-more-than-chips/)**
   > “by 2050, we're still 1.4 terawatt hours short, which is effectively six California's worth of electricity.”
   Chamath Palihapitiya Founder & CEO, Social Capital [41:16](https://realalpha.app/v/kAwG9E1W_ME/?t=2476)
5. Moonshots · Oct 15, 2026 · 3 min
   **[Math is bulk-solved first because it is easiest to verify](https://realalpha.app/s/math-is-bulk-solved-first-because-it-is-easiest-to-verify/)**
   > “It simply hit math first because math is easiest to verify. It's going to hit all of science. It's going to hit all of engineering, all of medicine”
   Alexander Wissner-Gross Founder, Reified [42:51](https://realalpha.app/v/A5YVqEpbgaU/?t=2571)
6. Unsupervised Learning · Apr 9, 2026 · 4 min
   **[In-context learning may beat custom RL for most companies](https://realalpha.app/s/in-context-learning-may-beat-custom-rl-for-most-companies/)**
   > “There is a much more data efficient way of learning that we know, which is like learning in context.”
   [Jakub Pachocki](https://realalpha.app/builders/jakub-pachocki/) Chief Scientist, OpenAI [13:05](https://realalpha.app/v/vK1qEF3a3WM/?t=785)

## Within five years 1

1. The Cognitive Revolution · Oct 20, 2026 · 3 min
   **[A coordinated effort could map cellular health and disease in five years](https://realalpha.app/s/a-coordinated-effort-could-map-cellular-health-and-disease/)**
   > “within five years with a really focused coordinated effort, we can have, you know, a pretty comprehensive map there.”
   [Alex Reeves](https://realalpha.app/people/alex-reeves/) [47:51](https://realalpha.app/v/l6DPAwgUr-8/?t=2871)

Each moment is a few minutes of a long interview, cut by Real Alpha and filed under how it answers by a model that read its claim and quote. Open a moment for its full transcript. Last moment added Oct 22, 2026.