# Is open-source AI catching up?

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/q/is-open-source-ai-catching-up/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

[All questions](https://realalpha.app/q/)

Question

Of the 6 moments we cut that answer this, 4 say open models are close behind, one says they’re behind but useful and one says they’re falling behind. Arvind Krishna said on All-In (Oct 21, 2026) that open-weight models can handle most enterprise work at much lower cost, while frontier models remain for high-value tasks. Gavin Baker said on BG2 (Jun 11, 2026) that open models handle cheaper back-office work, while frontier models keep high-value tasks like coding.

## Where they stand

- Close behind 4
  - George Kurtz
  - Arvind Krishna
  - Guillermo Rauch
  - John Coogan
- Behind but useful 1
  - Gavin Baker
- Falling behind 1
  - Dylan Patel

## Close behind 4

1. No Priors · Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min
   **[Enterprises may reserve frontier models for their hardest tasks](https://realalpha.app/s/enterprises-may-reserve-frontier-models-for-their-hardest/)**
   > “the open weight models right now are so good. Even if they're three months behind, it's plenty for what we need.”
   [George Kurtz](https://realalpha.app/people/george-kurtz/) President & CEO, CrowdStrike [23:28](https://realalpha.app/v/PST8yesYOSo/?t=1408)
2. All-In · Oct 21, 2026 · 6 min
   **[Open-weight models could handle most enterprise AI at lower cost](https://realalpha.app/s/open-weight-models-could-handle-most-enterprise-ai-at-lower/)**
   > “Which enterprise in the world will not accept a 10 times, or in this case, a 40 times cheaper answer for effectively what can do 95% of the work”
   [Arvind Krishna](https://realalpha.app/builders/arvind-krishna/) Chairman & CEO, IBM [13:13](https://realalpha.app/v/yzk44lz-RGI/?t=793)
3. Sourcery · Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min
   **[Open models now handle most token traffic on Vercel](https://realalpha.app/s/open-models-now-handle-most-token-traffic-on-vercel/)**
   > “I don't need to hire Albert Einstein to solve every problem, like answer every support ticket and spell check my stuff and classify my data.”
   [Guillermo Rauch](https://realalpha.app/builders/guillermo-rauch/) Founder & CEO, Vercel [56:15](https://realalpha.app/v/WuorvLfAFmA/?t=3375)
4. TBPN · Oct 9, 2026 · 5 min
   **[Open-source models trail closed ones by about six months](https://realalpha.app/s/open-source-models-trail-closed-ones-by-about-six-months/)**
   > “This is different because we're getting this capability before we've really characterized the shape of the threat.”
   [John Coogan](https://realalpha.app/people/john-coogan/) Co-host, TBPN [6:21](https://realalpha.app/v/7Svao3YGtp0/?t=381)

## Behind but useful 1

1. BG2 · Jun 11, 2026 · 3 min
   **[Frontier labs capture the revenue, but open source may carry most tokens](https://realalpha.app/s/frontier-labs-capture-the-revenue-but-open-source-may-carry/)**
   > “Frontier might be 90% of the economic value. Open source might be 80% of tokens.”
   [Gavin Baker](https://realalpha.app/people/gavin-baker/) Managing partner & CIO, Atreides Management [53:34](https://realalpha.app/v/Tx9jT2c6e3U/?t=3214)

## Falling behind 1

1. Big Technology Podcast · Oct 9, 2026 · 4 min
   **[Frontier labs are holding back models before public release](https://realalpha.app/s/frontier-labs-are-holding-back-models-before-public-release/)**
   > “Anthropic had Mythos ready in February. Their model safety cards noted that they have two other models since Mythos that have released.”
   [Dylan Patel](https://realalpha.app/people/dylan-patel/) Founder & CEO, SemiAnalysis [55:47](https://realalpha.app/v/LwMtHI7BHWI/?t=3347)

Each moment is a few minutes of a long interview, cut by Real Alpha and filed under how it answers by a model that read its claim and quote. Open a moment for its full transcript. Last moment added Oct 23, 2026.