# When will we get AGI?

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/q/when-will-we-get-agi/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

[All questions](https://realalpha.app/q/)

Question

Of the 5 moments we cut that answer this, 4 say it is further off and one says it comes within a few years. Demis Hassabis said on Big Technology Podcast (Jan 23, 2026) that AGI may be five to ten years away, with creativity, physical intelligence, and world models still needed. Elon Musk said on All-In (Sep 10, 2025) that AI may surpass individual humans next year and all humans combined by 2030.

## Where they stand

- Within a few years 1
  - Elon Musk
- Further off 4
  - Eric Schmidt
  - Demis Hassabis ×2
  - Stuart Russell

## Further off 4

1. Inside Blackstone · Sep 29, 2026 · 4 min
   **[Long reasoning is advancing, but original discovery remains hard](https://realalpha.app/s/long-reasoning-is-advancing-but-original-discovery-remains/)**
   > “The biggest and most important thing that has occurred in the last year is the arrival of long reasoning, deep reasoning.”
   [Eric Schmidt](https://realalpha.app/people/eric-schmidt/) CEO, Relativity Space [16:43](https://realalpha.app/v/PSbUom-p1hU/?t=1003)
2. Big Technology Podcast · Jan 23, 2026 · 5 min
   **[AGI requires creativity, physical skills and world models](https://realalpha.app/s/agi-requires-creativity-physical-skills-and-world-models/)**
   > “My definition of that is a system that can exhibit all the cognitive capabilities humans can.”
   [Demis Hassabis](https://realalpha.app/builders/demis-hassabis/) CEO, Google DeepMind [7:03](https://realalpha.app/v/bgBfobN2A7A/?t=423)
3. Big Technology Podcast · Jan 23, 2026 · 5 min
   **[Continual learning remains a key unsolved capability](https://realalpha.app/s/continual-learning-remains-a-key-unsolved-capability/)**
   > “we would love them to learn, you know, out in the wild and including things like personalization.”
   [Demis Hassabis](https://realalpha.app/builders/demis-hassabis/) CEO, Google DeepMind [5:45](https://realalpha.app/v/bgBfobN2A7A/?t=345)
4. The Diary Of A CEO · Dec 4, 2025 · 4 min
   **[AGI's bottleneck may be understanding, not compute](https://realalpha.app/s/agis-bottleneck-may-be-understanding-not-compute/)**
   > “In fact, I think we have far more computing power than we need for AGI. Maybe a thousand times more than we need.”
   [Stuart Russell](https://realalpha.app/people/stuart-russell/) Computer Science Professor, UC Berkeley [14:15](https://realalpha.app/v/P7Y-fynYsgE/?t=855)

## Within a few years 1

1. All-In · Sep 10, 2025 · 3 min
   **[Musk expects AI to surpass human intelligence within five years](https://realalpha.app/s/musk-expects-ai-to-surpass-human-intelligence-within-five/)**
   > “like say for argument's sake, like 10x more compute will double the intelligence.”
   [Elon Musk](https://realalpha.app/builders/elon-musk/) CEO, SpaceX & Tesla; founder, xAI [29:43](https://realalpha.app/v/qeZqZBRA-6Q/?t=1783)

Each moment is a few minutes of a long interview, cut by Real Alpha and filed under how it answers by a model that read its claim and quote. Open a moment for its full transcript. Last moment added Oct 24, 2026.