# AI could give democracies leverage in setting global rules

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/ai-could-give-democracies-leverage-in-setting-global-rules/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Dario Amodei](https://realalpha.app/builders/dario-amodei/) · Dario Amodei is CEO of Anthropic. · Co-founded Anthropic, the AI safety company behind Claude; earlier led OpenAI's GPT-2 and GPT-3 research.
- Host: [Dwarkesh Patel](https://realalpha.app/people/dwarkesh-patel/) · Host, Dwarkesh Podcast · Co-wrote The Scaling Era, an oral history of AI; named to TIME100 AI.
- Show: Dwarkesh Podcast
- Episode: [Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/), Feb 13, 2026
- Moment: 1:47:36 to 1:54:24 of the episode (7 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/ai-could-give-democracies-leverage-in-setting-global-rules/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6456

## Quote

> “one of those two pieces could be authoritarian or totalitarian in a way that's **very difficult to displace**.”
> — [Dario Amodei](https://realalpha.app/builders/dario-amodei/) at [1:49:29](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6569) · Dwarkesh Podcast

## Takeaways

1. Mutual overconfidence about who would win could raise conflict risk.
2. He fears AI could reinforce authoritarian governments.
3. Initial conditions may shape who has leverage over future rules.

## About this segment

Dario Amodei worries that unequal AI capabilities could create an unstable security window and make authoritarian control harder to dislodge. He wants democratic countries to have leverage when global rules are negotiated.

From “Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential””, Feb 13, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[1:47:40](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6460) You mentioned expert controls. Yeah. Why can't the US and China both have a country of geniuses on a data center? Why won't it happen or why shouldn't it happen? Why shouldn't it happen? You know, I think if this does happen, then we kind of have a – well, we could have a few – if we have like an offense dominant situation, we could have a situation like nuclear weapons but like more dangerous, right?

[1:48:07](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6487) Where it's like, you know, kind of either side could easily destroy everything. We could also have a world where it's kind of, it's unstable. Like the nuclear equilibrium is stable, right? Because it's, you know, it's like deterrence. But let's say there were uncertainty about like if the two AIs fought, which AI would win. That could create instability, right? You often have conflict when the two sides have a different assessment of their likelihood of winning, right?

[1:48:34](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6514) If one side is like, oh yeah, there's a 90% chance I'll win. And the other side's like, there's a 90% chance I'll win, then a fight is much more likely. They can't both be right, but they can both think that. But this is like a fully general argument against the diffusion of AI technology, which is the implication of this world. Let me just go on, because I think we will get diffusion eventually. The other concern I have is that people, the governments will oppress their own people with AI.

[1:49:00](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6540) And so, you know, I'm just, I'm worried about some world where you have a country that's already, you know, kind of, you know, there's a government that kind of already, you know, is kind of building a high-tech authoritarian state. And to be clear, this is about the government. This is not about the people. Like, we need to find a way for people everywhere to benefit. My worry here is about governments. So, yeah, you know, my worry is if the world gets carved up into two pieces, one of those two pieces could be authoritarian or totalitarian in a way that's very difficult to displace. Now, will governments eventually get powerful AI and there's risk of authoritarianism? Yes. Will governments eventually get powerful AI and there's risk of kind of bad equilibria? Yes, I think both things, but the initial conditions matter,

[1:49:56](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6596) right? At some point, we're going to need to set up the rules of the road. I'm not saying that one country, either the United States or a coalition of democracies, which I think would be a better setup, although it requires more international cooperation than we currently seem to want to make. But, you know, I don't think a coalition of democracies or certainly one country should just say these are the rules of the road.

[1:50:20](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6620) There's going to be some negotiation, right? The world is going to have to grapple with this. And what I would like is that the democratic nations of the world, those with, you know, whose governments have represent closer to pro-human values are holding a stronger hand then, have more leverage when the rules of the road are set. And so I'm very concerned about that initial condition. I was listening to an interview from three years ago. And one of the ways it aged poorly is that I kept asking questions, assuming there's going to be some key fulcrum moment two to three years from now, when in fact, being that far out, it just seems like progress continues, AI improves, AI is more diffused, and people will use it for more things.

[1:51:05](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6665) It seems like you're imagining a world in the future where the countries get together and here's the rules of the world and here's the leverage we have, here's the leverage you have. When it seems like on current trajectory, everybody will have more AI. Some of that AI will be used by authoritarian countries. Some of that within the authoritarian countries will be used by private actors versus state actors.

[1:51:24](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6684) It's not clear who will benefit more. It's always unpredictable to tell in advance. It seems like the internet privileged authoritarian countries more than you would have expected. And maybe the AI will be the opposite way around. Um, so I, I want to better understand what you're imagining here. Yeah. Yeah. So, so just to be precise about it, I think the exponential of the underlying technology will continue as it has before, right?

[1:51:47](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6707) The models get smarter and smarter, even when they get to country of geniuses in a data center, you know, I, I think you can continue to make the model smarter. There's a question of like getting diminishing returns on their value in the world, right? How much does it matter after you've already solved human biology or, you know, at some point you can do harder math. You can do more abstruse math problems, but nothing after that matters.

[1:52:12](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6732) But putting that aside, I do think the exponential will continue. But there will be certain distinguished points on the exponential and companies, individuals, countries will reach those points at different times. And so, you know, could there be some – you know, I talk about is a nuclear deterrent still in adolescence of technology, is a nuclear deterrent still stable in the world of AI? I don't know.

[1:52:38](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6758) But that's an example of like one thing we've taken for granted that like the technology could reach such a level that it's no longer like – you know, we can no longer be certain of it at least. you know think of think of others you know there there there you know there there are kind of points where if you if you reach a certain point you maybe you have offensive cyber dominance and like every every computer system is transparent to you after that unless the other side has it has a kind of equivalent defense so i don't know what the critical moment is or if there's a single critical moment but i think there will be either a critical moment a small number of critical moments or some critical window where it's like AI is, AI confers some large advantage from the perspective of national security

[1:53:27](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6807) and one country or coalition has reached it before others. That, you know, I'm not advocating that they're just like, okay, we're in charge now. That's not how I think about it. You know, there's always the other side is catching up. There's extreme actions you're not willing to take and it's not right to take complete control anyway. But at the point that that happens, I think people are going to understand that the world has changed.

[1:53:57](https://realalpha.app/v/n1E9IZfvGMA/?t=6837) And there's going to be some negotiation implicit or implicit about what is the post-AI world order look like. And I think my interest is in, you know, making that negotiation be one in which, you know, classical liberal democracy has, you know, has a strong hand.