# Avoid letting macro timing override your investment mandate

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/avoid-letting-macro-timing-override-your-investment-mandate/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Gavin Ezekowitz](https://realalpha.app/people/gavin-ezekowitz/) · Gavin Ezekowitz is co-founder and chief investment officer of BFA Global Investors. · Built a career across capital markets and investment banking, then became a venture and growth investor.
- Host: [David Weisburd](https://realalpha.app/people/david-weisburd/)
- Show: How I Invest
- Episode: [Gavin Ezekowitz on AI Valuations, Asymmetric Returns, and Why Great Investors Fail](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/), Oct 28, 2026
- Moment: 48:09 to 53:00 of the episode (5 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/avoid-letting-macro-timing-override-your-investment-mandate/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=2889

## Quote

> “if I am taking too big a macro leg view, too big a macro view on allocating capital, **I'm doing you a disservice**”
> — [Gavin Ezekowitz](https://realalpha.app/people/gavin-ezekowitz/) at [49:05](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=2945) · How I Invest

## Takeaways

1. Big macro calls can pull a manager away from the fund’s mandate.
2. Adjust position size rather than trying to time the whole market.
3. Keep dry powder to add to companies you know and believe in.

## About this segment

Gavin Ezekowitz argues that trying to time venture around macro conditions can keep managers from doing the job investors hired them to do. He favors sizing commitments to the cycle and keeping capacity to add when prices fall.

From “Gavin Ezekowitz on AI Valuations, Asymmetric Returns, and Why Great Investors Fail”, Oct 28, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/)

## Transcript

From the transcript How I Invest publishes with the episode.

[48:21](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=2901) I was on a call early this morning with a very significant LP, and she she asked a really great question. She said, well, look, given the macro environment and so forth, and we know a little bit about that. Given the macro environment, like how are you, you know, how are thinking about allocating capital in your fund and so forth? I said, This is a really big question. Because I think what LPs want is you to perfectly predict the future and not buy the overvalued stuff, wait six months and buy it all cheaper, and so forth.

[49:04](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=2944) It was all wonderful if we could get it so perfect. I said, Whether or not I've got an absolutely precise and perfect view of the cycle, if I am taking too big a macro leg view, too big a macro view on allocating capital, I'm doing you a disservice because you've given us capital to invest with a very specific agenda. And if we are not delivering that capital allocation, to the extent that I'm completely wrong, let's say I'm bearish and the market continues to travel, I haven't done the job for you.

[49:55](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=2995) And I'd say on the flip side, your sizing should be sufficient such that I know that Gavin is gonna go and allocate capital to these kinds of companies with this kind of underwrite, and not in a sloppy way, but he's allocating in this environment, in this current environment. And I need to size accordingly. I need to size because I think it might be a toppy market. So maybe my check will be half as large as it might have otherwise been.

[50:27](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=3027) And if it turns out that there's a a downturn and, you know, there's a maybe that'll be a chance to re up and do other things and and so forth, and I can take advantage of that. But I think that it's very tempting to get overly manufactured around macro views to become very embedded in having a conviction that certain things absolutely won't work, or this is going to be the way. And I think one of the things that being in the investment industry for a long time has taught me is that we are wrong a lot.

[51:06](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=3066) As investment managers, we are wrong a lot. At least half the time in venture, 70% of the time. We're wrong even when we have conviction. And so, we need to have an open minded view about what the paths may be. I think all that we really need to lean on is digging deep and saying, Do I really have conviction here? Or am I just afraid that I'm gonna miss this name? That I won't be able to face my family because I didn't invest in the cursor $10,000,000,000 round.

[51:41](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=3101) You have a tough family. My brother's an LP. But, you know, that reality, right? But I think, you know, where is your real conviction? Do you really believe it? We know we're gonna get them wrong. And then we invest in this market. As a very wise investor said to me the other day, he said, There's going to be a cycle. The kinds of companies I buy going to get... He buys hyper growth companies, are going to get sold off.

[52:10](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=3130) Even in the private market, they're going get sold off. And my playbook has been to know those companies well enough to go and be happy to buy, increase my position at a discount, and wait it out because I I believe in the fundamentals of the business. Right? That is... You know, you've you've just gotta be willing to do it. So you gotta have the dry powder to do it. You gotta have the knowledge of the company, the relationship with the company in order to be able to deliver on them.

[52:44](https://realalpha.app/v/-aC4qH9eMsM/?t=3164) I'm always so impressed when I meet people that have a read on the market and they're drinking their coffee.