# Dean thinks AI drives roughly 40% of GDP growth

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/dean-thinks-ai-drives-roughly-40-of-gdp-growth/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Dean W. Ball](https://realalpha.app/builders/dean-w-ball/) · Head of Strategic Futures, OpenAI · Primary author of the Trump administration's AI Action Plan, now Head of Strategic Futures at OpenAI.
- Host: [John Coogan](https://realalpha.app/people/john-coogan/) · Co-host, TBPN · Co-founded Soylent and Lucy; OpenAI bought his show TBPN in April 2026.
- Host: [Jordi Hays](https://realalpha.app/people/jordi-hays/) · Co-host, TBPN · Founded Branded Native; co-founded fintech Capital, which Rho bought.
- Show: TBPN
- Episode: [Marc Andreessen & Ilya Sutskever Host TBPN](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/), Oct 31, 2025
- Moment: 2:01:12 to 2:04:46 of the episode (4 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/dean-thinks-ai-drives-roughly-40-of-gdp-growth/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7272

## Quote

> “I think it's probably at least like **25 to 50% of of growth** right now.”
> — [Dean W. Ball](https://realalpha.app/builders/dean-w-ball/) at [2:03:01](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7381) · TBPN

## Takeaways

1. He puts AI's share of growth at roughly 25–50%.
2. Tariff-related stockpiling also boosted recent GDP figures.
3. His estimate excludes productivity gains enabled by AI.

## About this segment

Dean W. Ball estimates AI may explain about 40% of current GDP growth, while tariff-related stockpiling also lifts the figures. His estimate counts AI investment, not productivity gains from AI.

From “Marc Andreessen & Ilya Sutskever Host TBPN”, Oct 31, 2025. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/)

## Transcript

From the transcript TBPN publishes with the episode.

[2:01:18](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7278) Yeah. That makes sense. What, neck like like, how how are you forecasting next year? What do you think the most important issues? Is it more is it more of the same? Is it is there gonna be a new conversation that you kind of see on the horizon? You know, basically, like, is the debate around, you know, chip sales just gonna continue throughout the entire admin, or do you think it'll, at any point, settle?

[2:01:48](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7308) I think that debate will continue. And then I think, you know, more broadly, though, my guess is that that issue becomes less salient in AI policy over time, and probably more people join the sort of join the debate. Right now, AI policy is very much an elite conversation. You know? It's not something that a lot of people, like the average American, so to speak, is thinking about that much. But I think that starts to change. Again, maybe it's the electricity prices. Maybe it's the jobs. Maybe it's a little bit of both. Maybe it's also some crisis that happens, like cyber stuff.

[2:02:19](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7339) But I think that, like, in general, the salience will go up. And it will also be quite complicated because I also expect that in 2026, just like this year, a very meaningful fraction of GDP growth will be coming from AI. So, you know, policymakers are gonna find themselves, I think, in a bind.

[2:02:37](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7357) Oh, yeah. Wait. Sorry. I I I know we're wrapping up, but, I'd love to know, your thoughts on, like, the AI as the only driver of GDP meme. How real do you think that is? How bad do you that is?

[2:02:52](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7372) Some people hear that, and they're like, this is bad. And then the other take is like, if we're not doing this, like, it's even worse. Yeah.

[2:03:01](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7381) Yeah. So I think it is it is a big chunk of it. I I, you know, I think it's probably at least like 25 to 50% of of growth right now. Another big chunk, like, the q two number was really high. It was, like, 4%, and a chunk of that is definitely companies stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs. Mhmm. So they're, like, mass importing stuff, which is gonna be counted toward GDP. Yeah. So it's like there's some of that going on probably. And but, yeah, I mean, I think that it's almost certainly the case, the GDP you know, if I had to put an if I had to guess, I would guess it's something like 40%. AI is something like 40%.

[2:03:39](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7419) Truly of course the world economy. Yeah. And that's just enabling AI. That's just AI CapEx. That's not even, you know, what is AI enabling. Like business services

[2:03:49](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7429) and and accelerated revenue growth and, your Productivity. Mean, like like, how much of Google's revenue should be counted in, like, AI GDP now or, like, Instagram reels? Like, it's an if there's an AI slop video that goes viral and that generates 20,000,000 in AI ad revenue, are we counting that in GDP? We have no idea yet. It's gonna be it's gonna be years before we understand it.

[2:04:13](https://realalpha.app/v/m2mWKU0srfY/?t=7453) Last last question that I I'd be curious to get the your read on is sentiment around, we're a couple months out from the Intel deal. Mhmm. How is Washington and, like, Capitol Hill feeling about that deal? Obviously, it it looks good on paper for the taxpayer, but but do do you expect to see, like, more of this kind of thing? We've sought with MP Materials as well.