# Evidence about AI company control could shift their views

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/evidence-about-ai-company-control-could-shift-their-views/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Tom Davidson](https://realalpha.app/people/tom-davidson/) · Senior Research Fellow, Forethought · Co-authored research on how a small group could use AI to seize power, elevating AI-enabled coups as a risk.
- Host: Zershaaneh Qureshi
- Show: 80,000 Hours Podcast
- Episode: [AI Overlords vs Power-hungry Humans: Which Should Scare You More?](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/), Sep 29, 2026
- Moment: 1:22:32 to 1:25:42 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/evidence-about-ai-company-control-could-shift-their-views/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=4952

## Quote

> “And, you know, I think it's quite plausible that that shifts me, you know, to thinking that, yeah, the **misalignment risk is notably bigger** overall.”
> — [Tom Davidson](https://realalpha.app/people/tom-davidson/) at [1:24:06](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=5046) · 80,000 Hours Podcast

## Takeaways

1. Katja focuses on how decisions inside AI labs are made.
2. Tom says weak responses to warning shots would raise concern.
3. Recent political actions and lab concentration also affect Tom’s view.

## About this segment

Katja would update if one person could shape a model without broad internal checks. Tom Davidson watches misalignment incidents and whether the world responds, while noting rising power-concentration risks.

From “AI Overlords vs Power-hungry Humans: Which Should Scare You More?”, Sep 29, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[1:22:35](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=4955) Yeah, I'm interested in what evidence or new information you could imagine getting in the next couple of years that would update you in a different direction from your current position. Like, are there particular types of warning shot that might make you think differently about this or like particular evidence about the character and behaviors and propensities of AI systems that might skew you one way or another?

[1:23:10](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=4990) What are you looking out for? I think in practice, if I were to change my mind on this, the sort of evidence seems much more likely to come from like me learning more facts about the current world or like thinking through it more myself. For instance, I guess I think I'm assuming various things about like, you know, what does it look like inside an AI company and how easy would it be for a particular person to like affect how the AI is trained in a sufficiently important way to cause this kind of thing.

[1:23:40](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=5020) And I think if I learned that it more looked like one person could do that sort of thing without many other people having to let it pass, that would make a big difference. Yeah, same question to you, Tom. I think the big thing is the chance of misalignment. So I have updated based on the Hugging Face stuff. I was really, really surprised by that. And, you know, I'm going to keep thinking about it.

[1:24:09](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=5049) And, you know, I think it's quite plausible that that shifts me, you know, to thinking that, yeah, the misalignment risk is notably bigger overall. and I think it'll be really interesting to see the response that the world takes to the recent incidents and any other future incidents that come where you know I still have a kind of perhaps naively hopeful expectation that okay wow we've got really quite compelling evidence of messed up misalignment like surely like as this filters through it's not going to happen overnight but as this filters through and like people can go in with briefings of like really really compelling um evidence like the world is going to change its stance significantly and so if that doesn't happen um which it might not then again that that that that's going to make me you know but you know more worried about misalignment because i'll lose this this kind

[1:25:07](https://realalpha.app/v/FHCxnHU6jFQ/?t=5107) of idea of the warning shots help helping out significantly um and you know on the power concentration side there have unfortunately also been updates towards power concentration being more worrying than I thought. Actions of the current admin, as well as just it seeming more plausible that there's going to be a very small number of AI companies has made those risks seem bigger too. But overall, I have been updating towards misalignment recently. Yeah, it's all super interesting to hear. Thank you both so much. I think that's all we've got time for,