# Middle powers may not overcome AI’s concentration by policy alone

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/middle-powers-may-not-overcome-ais-concentration-by-policy/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Reed Hastings](https://realalpha.app/people/reed-hastings/) · Reed Hastings is cofounder and former CEO of Netflix. · Co-founded Netflix and led it as CEO, then became majority owner and chair of Powder Mountain.
- Host: [Reid Hoffman](https://realalpha.app/people/reid-hoffman/) · Co-founder, Manas AI · Co-founded LinkedIn; one of OpenAI's first investors; Greylock partner.
- Show: Possible
- Episode: [Reed Hastings: From Building Netflix to What Comes Next](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/), Apr 22, 2026
- Moment: 44:37 to 49:32 of the episode (5 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/middle-powers-may-not-overcome-ais-concentration-by-policy/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2677

## Quote

> “Sure, probably that makes sense. Will it work? Not clear at all because the **power imbalance** in the U.K. was so high.”
> — [Reed Hastings](https://realalpha.app/people/reed-hastings/) at [48:06](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2886) · Possible

## Takeaways

1. He expects middle powers to link up rather than compete alone.
2. Britain restricted industrialization in places including India and Argentina.
3. A national AI policy may help without guaranteeing influence.

## About this segment

Reed Hastings expects AI to be dominated by the U.S. and China, leaving middle powers with limited leverage alone. He says alliances can help, but history shows policy cannot erase large power gaps.

From “Reed Hastings: From Building Netflix to What Comes Next”, Apr 22, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[44:42](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2682) So we learned earlier that you were the one that said Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age. We define entire epics of humanity by the technology that they use. And so we're entering the AI age. Do you think even more than previous ages that now if you are left out of the AI? age, either personally or sort of as a country, like that now is the time that some folks might actually fall behind and there's going to be a bigger divergence between those who embrace the AI age and those who fall behind?

[45:12](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2712) Well, I don't know that just embracing it, like if you're a small country in Europe that has a glorious past, I don't think it's whether you embrace it or not that it's going to change outcome. I mean, you know, you got to try to figure out a strategy because, you know, it's going to be dominated, you know, by China and the U.S. Okay, how does the middle powers like Canada, you know, thrive? And I think we owe, you know, we're part of that thinking and solution to be able to build a world that we all want to live in. And so what would you do for these middle powers? Like, they don't want to live in a world where it's just China and the U.S.?

[45:53](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2753) i don't know that they have much of a choice yeah so i think it's i mean what they're doing is linking up together yeah you know and i think that probably makes sense um and certainly you know they'll embrace using you know american ai because they'll they'll need to and you know maybe they will be able to get some local things going or they'll do it by treaty where you know where they get they're not going to get shut off right but think of it as ai is going to accentuate income gaps, both in the U.S. and between the U.S. and other countries. So, you know, it's going to create tensions, just like it does in one society, it does between societies.

[46:36](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2796) I do think that one of the things, and I think you would agree, that actually having an active AI strategy for the countries, for the industries, et cetera, is actually, in fact, really important. And I think it's less important to be going, it isn't that, you know, so-called digital sovereignty isn't also important, but the most important thing is to actually be modernizing your, your kind of industry, your countries, your companies, your workforce, because it's a little bit like the industrial revolution.

[47:10](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2830) Like one of the things I put in super agency is that, you know, England, quarter of the population of France, 10th the population in China, multi-century, did not invent the Industrial Revolution, but multi-century's empire because they embraced the Industrial Revolution most robustly early. Would you also think that when you get to thinking about this from… From a countries or industries or companies perspective, that they should adopt that same thing of like, we have to have an active strategy in being there early.

[47:40](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2860) Well, your example is interesting. So you said the UK, which led industrialization, so that's kind of the equivalent of America today, right? So you didn't really phrase it as, you know, what should Argentina do about industrialization, which is a very hard challenge. because the U.K. did everything in its power to keep Argentina from being able to industrialize, to maintain their strength of their power.

[48:05](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2885) So if you are a middle power like Argentina, should you have an industrialization policy? Sure, probably that makes sense. Will it work? Not clear at all because the power imbalance in the U.K. was so high. So they were laws preventing looms and various things from being in India. So the cotton, you know, from India had to come and then get processed in the UK and they enforce those laws of their military.

[48:32](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2912) So, you know, it sounds all great that Belgium should have, you know, an AI policy. And Estonia is a small country that's done a lot on, say, digital ID and do good government tech. So I guess that's better than not doing it. But I don't know that it's actually much of an answer for a middle of a country. I mean, I think the challenges for a middle power country are quite substantial, and I don't have a good solution, but I think, you know, in them linking up and doing things and working well, and I hope that the U.S., as the Western leader of that, is, you know, embracing in a very important way, you know, which is not the current America First policy, but I think it's much more in our long-term interest to have long and strong allies.

[49:21](https://realalpha.app/v/2qoGbd9d2yA/?t=2961) So earlier you said that you think AI is going to usher in this great era of abundance, and whether it's 10 years or 20 years, when sort of AGI gets here.