# Prediction markets let skilled bettors act as the house

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/prediction-markets-let-skilled-bettors-act-as-the-house/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Shaan Puri](https://realalpha.app/people/shaan-puri/) · Co-host, My First Million · Sold Bebo to Twitch in 2019; co-founded the crypto newsletter Milk Road.
- Host: [Chris Williamson](https://realalpha.app/people/chris-williamson/) · Host, Modern Wisdom
- Show: Modern Wisdom
- Episode: [Crypto Scams, Dopamine Websites, Tasteful Slop & Vape Shop Energy - Rabbit Hole #6](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/), Oct 26, 2026
- Moment: 12:22 to 14:59 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/prediction-markets-let-skilled-bettors-act-as-the-house/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=742

## Quote

> “So I gave this guy a million dollars and he said he basically started producing **1% returns every day**.”
> — [Shaan Puri](https://realalpha.app/people/shaan-puri/) at [13:31](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=811) · Modern Wisdom

## Takeaways

1. Long-shot parlays can have a wide gap between true odds and payouts.
2. Market makers can take the other side instead of betting on an outcome.
3. Shaan says one operator returned 1% a day on a $1 million stake.

## About this segment

Shaan Puri describes a bettor who put $1 million into a strategy returning 1% a day by taking the other side of long-shot parlays. Prediction markets can let traders act as bookmakers, not only bettors.

From “Crypto Scams, Dopamine Websites, Tasteful Slop & Vape Shop Energy - Rabbit Hole #6”, Oct 26, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[12:30](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=750) Really, it's perilously close to Black Mirror. What do you think happens with prediction, Mark? Do you think they're just going to continue to happen, or is there going to be some legislation that comes in and fucks it? I think there's going to have to be legislation. I can't imagine that this just runs amok. I mean, the funny thing is, they used to present themselves as, we are the bearers of truth. Let the markets say what's true. Forget the mainstream media, blah, blah, blah. But now the volume is literally, I think, 98% sports betting.

[12:57](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=777) Even on Polymarket. On both Cal sheet and Polymark. Which is why Novick or Sidney Sweeney makes so much sense. Especially now, like, football season, it's, like, insane. There's one guy who was a very prolific sports bettor back in the day and kept in touch with this guy. You know, there's a group of these people that they kind of make their money in these arbitrage-y types of ways. Very smart people, but they're always playing this cat-and-mouse game.

[13:21](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=801) You know, so when he was sports betting, it's like you get an edge and then the casino realizes what's going on and they shut you down. So you start giving money to Floyd Mayweather and celebrities as your beards to go bet. That works for a while. Then that gets shut down. And then you move to the next thing, crypto. Then you move to the next thing, this. And so now they're all like all in on Polymarket.

[13:38](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=818) So I gave this guy a million dollars and he said he basically started producing 1% returns every day. And what he was doing, the short version of it is the way a lot of these sites work. People go and they put 10 bucks and they want this like amazing like payout of these 15 different things happen. and the odds of those 15 you know um whatever like the cowboys will score the first touchdown and the national anthem goes this long and it's like it's an acca it's an acca in the uk parlay yeah so like uh acca as you go the more you go the better the payout so 10 could be two grand and the guy's happy and he's he's gonna enjoy watching the game more but the real odds of that happening are like two million to one and you're paying two thousand and so you can just be the market so like all these quant firms like jane street and whatever like not jane street like

[14:22](https://realalpha.app/v/n9NhSWUrm38/?t=862) more like jump street like smaller quant firms instead of betting instead of playing wall street marketing maker they're going on these prediction markets and they they take action from people who want to do this so the platform is not the house you can kind of go be the house and bet and like take the action for these people if you think the odds are a million to one and this guy's willing to take the bet for a thousand to one you just picked up like all the spread of that actual event happening it's pretty amazing you know i i think is like an underappreciated thing about the like