# Q3 numbers reveal Anthropic’s growth slowed after token maxing

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/q3-numbers-reveal-anthropics-growth-slowed-after-token/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Steve Eisman](https://realalpha.app/people/steve-eisman/) · Investor
- Host: [Ed Elson](https://realalpha.app/people/ed-elson/)
- Show: Prof G Markets
- Episode: [Steve Eisman: Here's What Anthropic Isn't Telling You](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/), Oct 28, 2026
- Moment: 2:15 to 5:33 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/q3-numbers-reveal-anthropics-growth-slowed-after-token/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=135

## Quote

> “Third quarter, **token maxing is over**. Sequential revenue growth goes from 147% to 45%. And the revenue divided by compute goes from 2.08 to 1.7.”
> — [Steve Eisman](https://realalpha.app/people/steve-eisman/) at [4:19](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=259) · Prof G Markets

## Takeaways

1. Sequential revenue growth fell from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3.
2. Revenue-to-compute costs fell from 2.08 to 1.7.
3. Eisman says Q3 results are key data for investors to watch.

## About this segment

Steve Eisman compares quarterly revenue growth with compute costs and says both weakened after token maxing faded. Those figures may show demand is less durable than the S-1’s headline growth suggests.

From “Steve Eisman: Here's What Anthropic Isn't Telling You”, Oct 28, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[2:28](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=148) now i have heard that they're going to have to put out third quarter numbers before they go public although I'm not 100% sure that's correct. However, there are reports out there that at least have the revenue for the third quarter as well as the compute and infrastructure cost for the third quarter. And that actually tells a tale because for those of us who have been paying a lot of attention, as we all know, in the first half of this year, token maxing was at its height.

[3:01](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=181) And for those viewers who don't know what that is, token maxing is where basically software engineers were ordered by their companies to use AI 24-7. with the costs. But after the first half of the year, people got a lot more cost-conscious. The Chinese open-weight models took more market share. And so what I wanted to see was what happened in third quarter after the token maxing was over. And so if you look at the fourth quarter, first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter, and you look at two statistics, the sequential revenue increase. And then the revenue divided by the compute infrastructure expense. So if you go to the fourth quarter of last year, which was really just before token maxing really took off, revenue growth was 43% and the ratio was 0.69 times, which meant, of course, that revenue was less than

[4:02](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=242) compute expense. Okay. First quarter, token maxing takes off. Revenue growth goes from 43% sequentially to 135% sequentially. And the ratio goes from 0.69 to 1.4. Impressive. And then in the second quarter, which was the height of token maxing, revenue growth jumps again to 147%. And the revenue to compute goes to 2.08 times. Now let's talk about the third quarter. Third quarter, token maxing is over. Sequential revenue growth goes from 147% to 45%. And the revenue divided by compute goes from 2.08 to 1.7. That tells you something. That tells you that the end of token maxing has had an impact. The other thing that I have heard, I haven't been able to confirm it, is that sometime in October, Anthropic cut its prices by about 50% to try and get back a lot more market share. Whether that's going to come out on the roadshow, I don't know.

[5:07](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=307) But it certainly would be the data points that I would be focused on the most. Something that was notable looking through the filing is that a lot of those charts that they put up at the top showing you how the business is doing, they do not include Q3 at all.