# The Iran war may have strengthened Tehran’s leverage

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/the-iran-war-may-have-strengthened-tehrans-leverage/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/people/konstantin-kisin/) · Political Commentator
- Host: [Joe Rogan](https://realalpha.app/people/joe-rogan/) · Host, The Joe Rogan Experience
- Show: The Joe Rogan Experience
- Episode: [Joe Rogan Experience #2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/), Oct 31, 2026
- Moment: 1:34:38 to 1:41:54 of the episode (7 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/the-iran-war-may-have-strengthened-tehrans-leverage/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5678

## Quote

> “And his argument was, you got to get out of this **as quickly as possible** or it's going to get worse and worse and worse and worse.”
> — [Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/people/konstantin-kisin/) at [1:36:16](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5776) · The Joe Rogan Experience

## Takeaways

1. Control of Hormuz gives Iran leverage beyond the battlefield.
2. Regional allies and energy routes shape the conflict’s stakes.
3. Leaders may overreach after an apparent easy win in Venezuela.

## About this segment

Konstantin Kisin recounts Robert Pape’s view that Iran can use the Strait of Hormuz to gain leverage. He links the conflict’s risks to leaders acting on optimistic assumptions.

From “Joe Rogan Experience #2574 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin”, Oct 31, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[1:34:43](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5683) Well, this is an interesting thing with Iran, right? Because there were people. So last time we were here, it was right around the time that the war started. Yeah. And then we had this guy called Robert Pape on the show. I don't know if you've seen his stuff. He's a military air power analyst. And he basically said exactly how it was going to go. This is before the invasion. Yeah, yeah. And we just had him on just now to talk about it.

[1:35:11](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5711) And he calls it the escalation trap. And he talks about how effectively America trapped itself in this situation, particularly with the Strait of Hermos. and actually his argument is now look i'm not i can't judge whether it's true or false but so far everything he said to us worked out is this is put iran on the path to become a regional hegemon they are now going to be in a position where they're way more powerful than they were before this conflict how so because they are they have been given the legitimacy to block the strait reformers and they are now becoming more powerful against saudi arabia the uae who are their primary opponents and also Israel, they control a lot of the oil and where that goes.

[1:35:56](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5756) And the Houthis as well. The problem is the Saudis have this pipeline that goes to the Red Sea. The idea is you don't need the Stratformers, you can go around it, but the Houthis are bombing the shit out of that pipeline right now. So it's a trap. It was a trap, according to his analysis. And that's why, coming back to your point, the war isn't over and you have to find a way to resolve it. And his argument was, you got to get out of this as quickly as possible or it's going to get worse and worse and worse and worse.

[1:36:28](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5788) And you see that now where Iran is in a position – they've basically got a – like they've got the global economy in a rear naked choke. That's why gas prices are what they are. That's what diesel prices are what they are. It's why Trump talks about, oh, Zelensky is – it's not Zelensky bombing Russian refineries that's causing the diesel price to get to this point. The war in Ukraine has been going on for four years.

[1:36:53](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5813) But the price started really going up when the war in Iran started. And this is where all these problems are coming from. And Iran can do this as long as they want. It hurts them too. But his argument is they can carry on doing this because for them, it's about survival. It's like Russia in 1941. You're taking casualties, millions of people being captured. But for you, this is about survival. You know Trump's got the midterms to worry about.

[1:37:21](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5841) You know after the midterms he's not going to have the House, may not have the Senate. He's going to be up to his eyeballs in investigations, congressional committees, impeachment proceedings, all of that shit. So this war has now put America in a weaker position or its leaders. Maybe not America, but its leaders in a weaker position. That means you've got more leverage. And you can see in the rhetoric now with, like I said, the Zelensky thing and all the rest of it, there's a lot of flailing about.

[1:37:47](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5867) There's a lot of flailing about trying desperately to get gas prices down. And Iran knows this. They're not dumb. They're watching this and going every day that this goes on, we've got more leverage. And it's in their interest to carry on that until they get the deal they want, which is get American bases out of the Middle East entirely. Well, they've already fucked up the American bases in the Middle East to a point where it's going to take decades to fix them, right?

[1:38:13](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5893) Is that right? So we were reading – I don't know. What do I know? but they have bombed bases where american troops have it's more than 20 of them we pulled it up the number the other day it was a it's a large number and you got to think like how much destruction like we're not seeing videos where they're detailing all the different things that happen and from what i hear it's pretty extensive and the problem with this the this asymmetrical warfare the problem with drone bombing the problem with all this stuff is that it's like Like regular countermeasures don't seem to work, you know, like what they figured out in Ukraine where they're using the monofilament line to control these drones.

[1:38:54](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5934) So you can't even use anti-drone weapons. It's like you're almost exposed. And so if you have an air base and like the attack that the Ukrainians did on the Russians where they blew up all those planes, that's kind of wild that you can go in there and do billions of dollars worth of damage in one night. It's like this is a different world we're living in. We're not living in a world where just you have to launch missiles.

[1:39:18](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5958) They see the missiles come and they shoot them out of the sky with the Iron Dome. That's not the it's not the same thing anymore. Drone technology has changed everything. One of the things that I love about our job is that we get to meet so many interesting people, either because they've been on the show or just because they're friends of friends. I was talking to an ex-Special Forces guy and I said to him, could we put I said, I don't agree with this, but could we put boots on the ground in Iran?

[1:39:42](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=5982) And he just laughed. He went, let's take all the politics out of it. He goes, nobody would agree to that because the terrain is so mountainous. How are you going to achieve that? It's impossible. You're not going to do that. And he also said to me, I think Robert Pape echoed this. There has never been a regime change achieved solely through airstrikes. It doesn't happen. So you go, well, how is this going to evolve? How is this going to actually evolve? Does anybody know? Is this just vibes? Is there a bigger plan? What's going to happen?

[1:40:20](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=6020) What do you mean by is it just vibes? By vibes, it's like, did they actually think this through? Did they think if this actually happened, A could happen, B could happen, C could happen? And if A could happen, what's our strategy for A? If B could happen, what's our strategy for B? If C could happen, what's – or were they just like basically high off Venezuela and they were like, hey, we smashed Maduro, let's go in?

[1:40:44](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=6044) Well, it's also how much does Trump know about how this all could possibly play out if they started bombing Iran and what was he told? And what did he – how did he manage the information that he got or how did the people get access to him or not get access to him? Right. Because that's also part of this conversation. It's the same with – this is why Vladimir Putin is four years deep into a three-day special military operation in Ukraine.

[1:41:11](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=6071) Right. Because he was told, you're going to go in there. We're going to get Zelensky out. We're going to land paratroopers in Hostomel, land all our share. Everybody is – and the people are going to rise up and support us. which is exactly what they said about Iran, by the way, right? Take out the leader, the people will rise up, take over and whatever. And it seems to be that that's not how it works.

[1:41:32](https://realalpha.app/v/a2K-AHeZ3o0/?t=6092) And quite often you get these situations from what we are told where not all of the information is presented equally. There is not the process of deliberation that I think we'd all hope there is for decisions of this magnitude. It's more like Francis said, Venezuela went very well. We're on a roll.