# The U.S. leads AV commercialization while China leads manufacturing

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/the-u-s-leads-av-commercialization-while-china-leads/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Dan Chiolan](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-chiolan/) · Research Associate, Prof G Media · Analyzes autonomous-vehicle markets, including Waymo’s lead and the ripple effects of driverless cars.
- Host: [Ed Elson](https://realalpha.app/people/ed-elson/)
- Show: Prof G Markets
- Episode: [Steve Eisman: Here's What Anthropic Isn't Telling You](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/), Oct 28, 2026
- Moment: 20:59 to 23:40 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/the-u-s-leads-av-commercialization-while-china-leads/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1259

## Quote

> “**America is definitely in the lead** because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is.”
> — [Dan Chiolan](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-chiolan/) at [21:43](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1303) · Prof G Markets

## Takeaways

1. Waymo's paid rides put the U.S. ahead in commercialization.
2. China's manufacturing costs support its AV expansion abroad.
3. Europe and the Middle East are contested markets.

## About this segment

Waymo's paid rides put the U.S. ahead in commercialization, while China has a manufacturing cost edge. Dan Chiolan sees Europe and the Middle East as key markets because neither side can enter the other's home market.

From “Steve Eisman: Here's What Anthropic Isn't Telling You”, Oct 28, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[21:11](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1271) robotaxi service to having something operational. On an international level, who is winning the AV race? It sounds like you believe that the winner currently is Waymo, but Tesla seems to be beginning to catch up. On an international level, US, China, who's winning? Autonomous. Yeah, so I think internationally, it's definitely between the U.S. and China. There are, you know, countless companies in China trying to do autonomous driving. I think where China is really winning is in manufacturing because they have the ability to manufacture electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles.

[21:51](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1311) at a cost that's much lower than any American company. But in terms of commercialization, America is definitely in the lead because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is. So we're sort of very clearly in first place in that aspect. The thing that I think is important to know is most likely we will never see each other's technology. Like America's never going to allow Chinese self-driving companies here in America and China won't allow American self-driving companies in China.

[22:22](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1342) The place where the race is really going to play out is in the Middle East and Europe, where those countries can kind of, you know, choose which country to get their autonomous driving technology from. And I think what's interesting so far is in the Middle East and in Europe, they've by and large gone with Chinese companies, whereas, you know, American companies like Waymo or Tesla have not been able to expand internationally.

[22:46](https://realalpha.app/v/8uoSVG3P6z0/?t=1366) Do you think that is a function of Chinese technology being better or maybe it's a geopolitical strategy? I mean, I can't tell if that says something about China's influence on Europe and the Middle East geopolitically. What is your read? I think they already have entered those countries with their electric vehicles and their vehicles in general, which has allowed them to get sort of a foothold in the market there. But I also just think it speaks to American companies' strategy of focusing on the domestic battle first. Waymo does have plans to expand internationally, but they're really focused on rolling out here in America first.