# Trump’s crypto interests could reinforce his incentive to escalate

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/trumps-crypto-interests-could-reinforce-his-incentive-to/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Robert Pape](https://realalpha.app/people/robert-pape/) · Robert Pape is a political scientist, professor and author. · Founded and directs CPOST, and developed the Escalation Trap model of modern warfare.
- Host: [Steven Bartlett](https://realalpha.app/people/steven-bartlett/) · Host, The Diary Of A CEO
- Show: The Diary Of A CEO
- Episode: [Iran War Expert: "The 8 Weeks After Midterms Could Be The Most Dangerous!" | Prof Robert Pape](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/), Nov 5, 2026
- Moment: 22:17 to 25:54 of the episode (4 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/trumps-crypto-interests-could-reinforce-his-incentive-to/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1337

## Takeaways

1. Pape calls crypto an investment built on confidence.
2. He says Trump’s power is a factor in crypto’s value.
3. He argues a loss of power could hurt Trump’s family financially.

## About this segment

Robert Pape argues that Trump’s political legacy and his family’s crypto wealth are tied to his power. That creates another reason he may resist backing down.

From “Iran War Expert: "The 8 Weeks After Midterms Could Be The Most Dangerous!" | Prof Robert Pape”, Nov 5, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/)

## Transcript

From the transcript The Diary Of A CEO publishes with the episode.

[22:24](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1344) relax for two years. Okay, I can't get laws passed and I can't get things done, but I could just chill at the White House. Yes. So there's two big problems with that idea, Stephen. Problem number one is presidents don't just abandon their party, their agenda, and their legacy. We see this not just with President Trump and MAGA, but we saw this with Lyndon Johnson in the Vietnam War. Lyndon Johnson went through a very similar game of roulette where he kept doubling down as each rung of the escalation ladder cost him more and more support.

[23:00](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1380) As the American people were turning against the war, he kept going up the ladder. Chasing his losses. He's chasing his losses, hoping, even though each risk is riskier, each bet is riskier, he sees it as the only way to dig out of this doom loop that he is in. And there are deadlines. The equivalent of the bookie wanting their money back in two weeks is the election. And it's not just the day of the election.

[23:28](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1408) It's the election's mean transfer of power where the whole legacy comes unglued. And the legacy of the losing president is the worst of all. And so this would mean President Trump, when you say, shouldn't he just go to St. Andrews to play golf? He becomes Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson combined. The worst president that we've ever had in anything, any of our lifetimes. This is a huge problem for any president to just simply absorb.

[24:01](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1441) So that was the first point. The second point is the crypto. So President Trump has made enormous money for himself and his family on various investments. And a lot of it is in crypto. And crypto is ultimate confidence investment. So that what you have with crypto, the final gold piece here is this can go up poof when President Trump's power goes up. So the problem with crypto and his money in crypto is that this is heavily dependent on President Trump's power.

[24:43](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1483) And when President Trump's power goes poof, um. a lot of crypto, not all of it, but a lot of it will go poof. And that will be true not just for him personally, he's 80 years old, but for his family, for his friends, those people that have made enormous fortunes on this. So when President Trump looks at this, this isn't just ego humiliation. This is massive loss in history and, And this is also massive personal financial loss for his family.

[25:18](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1518) His family are quite involved in the gambling laws and prediction markets in the United States as well. I think his son is actually on the board of one of the big prediction market companies. And they've sort of like held back the laws and regulations so that prediction markets can exist. So I understand it from that perspective as well that they do have financial interests that could be at risk. And what happens with the gambler here is, They keep going until what?

[25:41](https://realalpha.app/v/a1mI-ozLyYM/?t=1541) They lose it all. So what happens next? So they lose it all. In Iran. So let's go back to the board.