# Which House races Pfeiffer says could signal the wave

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/which-house-races-pfeiffer-says-could-signal-the-wave/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Dan Pfeiffer](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-pfeiffer/) (Host)
- Host: [Jon Favreau](https://realalpha.app/people/jon-favreau/)
- Show: Pod Save America
- Episode: [A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/), Oct 30, 2026
- Moment: 55:09 to 58:36 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/which-house-races-pfeiffer-says-could-signal-the-wave/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3309

## Quote

> “That'll be our first sign of **how big the wave** is.”
> — [Dan Pfeiffer](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-pfeiffer/) at [55:51](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3351) · Pod Save America

## Takeaways

1. Pfeiffer treats Kentucky’s 6th as an early test in a Trump +15 district.
2. He sees Florida’s 27th as a Florida-specific Latino signal, not a proxy for Texas.
3. He says Alabama’s 2nd could test Black turnout across the South.

## About this segment

Dan Pfeiffer names early House races he plans to watch to gauge the wave and identify which voters are moving. He says results in districts with different demographics should not be treated as interchangeable.

From “A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?”, Oct 30, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[55:22](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3322) As the results start to come in, it's got me nervous just saying that. What's on your list? So I want to start with some house races. I did a little bit of some polar coaster. I'm going to write a much fuller thing for MessageBox. But just as the polls close on the East Coast, what are the races we should be watching to see how there may be harbingers of things to come? And I'm going to start with Kentucky 6.

[55:45](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3345) Polls close in Kentucky first. Kentucky 6 is the seat held by Andy Barr, who is running for the Republican nominee for the McConnell seat. That's the district that Trump won by about 15 points. We have a great Democratic candidate in Zach Dembo there. This race has been seen as competitive. Republicans are very worried about it. Look at the results there. That'll be our first sign of how big the wave is.

[56:07](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3367) If Dembo is immediately very competitive or even ahead, that's very positive. Then we're going to get poll closings in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, in Georgia. In Florida, it's Florida 27. I'm very interested in that's in- And South Carolina. Yeah, and South Carolina. South Carolina, a little bit less interesting on the house races. But in Florida, the house race that is Florida 27, I'm most interested in, that's the Maria Elvira Salazar seat.

[56:34](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3394) She's the one who did that very aggressive ad, sort of breaking with Trump on immigration. It's a district that Trump won by 15 points, heavily Latino. Very interested to see what's going on there. The caution I would give is, Nate made this point on Still Counting as well, that how Latinos in Florida move doesn't tell us how Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley move. But still, I think very interesting. And also, if they don't call that race for Ashley Moody quickly, that'll be very interesting as well.

[56:59](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3419) In North Carolina, I'm interested in North Carolina 11, which is the seat that was the Chuck Edwards seat before he resigned. Jamie Ager is there. Republicans have pulled out of that seat. Out of that race, Jamie Ager is running there. He's a a fourth-generation farmer. Very interesting to see. It was kind of, it'll tell us a little bit about how Democrats are doing in rural areas. In Virginia, we got a bunch of house races.

[57:20](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3440) The one that I'm going to look at is Virginia 5, which is a Trump plus 12 district, which is where our old friend Tom Perriello is running for Congress again. This is sort of in and around the Charlottesville area. This was supposed to be a very Democratic district if the Virginia maps had come in. So I'm fascinated by that one. And if that one is very competitive and they count votes fast in Virginia, another very positive sign.

[57:41](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3461) And then in Then another one I'm going to look at, which closes a little bit later, is Alabama, Alabama 2, which is this is the district that the Republicans redrew after the Clay decision. This is Shamari Figures, who is in this race, is the incumbent Democrat. Probably have gotten very worried about this seat in recent days as a Trump plus 15 district. This is going to be our sign about black turnout across the South.

[58:02](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3482) I think we'll be in this district is even though it's much has many fewer black voters than had before, it still has a high black population. So I'm very interested in that one. And then we're going to get to Texas and then our, our friend, Bobby Polito, I'm interested in that race is another one, a bunch of races, Pennsylvania as well. And then I mentioned it earlier, but, um, in New York, New York 21, I think I'll be very interested in seeing how that goes.

[58:24](https://realalpha.app/v/hQUcRVA8U3k/?t=3504) I mean, I don't have too much to add to that.