# Why Crowder sees inconsistency driving the MAGA split

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/why-crowder-sees-inconsistency-driving-the-maga-split/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Steven Crowder](https://realalpha.app/people/steven-crowder/) · Steven Crowder is a comedian and political commentator. · Created and hosts Louder with Crowder, a daily political show featuring the recurring “Change My Mind” segment.
- Host: [Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/people/konstantin-kisin/) · TRIGGERnometry
- Host: [Francis Foster](https://realalpha.app/people/francis-foster/) · TRIGGERnometry
- Show: TRIGGERnometry
- Episode: [Steven Crowder: "80% the Next President is a Democrat"](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/), Nov 4, 2026
- Moment: 18:52 to 24:05 of the episode (5 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/why-crowder-sees-inconsistency-driving-the-maga-split/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1132

## Quote

> “The only consistency that I see is that the people doing the fracturing have been **remarkably inconsistent**.”
> — [Steven Crowder](https://realalpha.app/people/steven-crowder/) at [20:52](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1252) · TRIGGERnometry

## Takeaways

1. Crowder says major MAGA critics have changed positions repeatedly.
2. He argues primary participation matters more than protest.
3. He puts a Democratic 2028 win at 80% if Democrats flip the Senate.

## About this segment

Steven Crowder says prominent Trump critics have shifted positions and argues that sitting out primaries hands Democrats an advantage. He cites an 80% chance of a Democratic win if Democrats flip the Senate.

From “Steven Crowder: "80% the Next President is a Democrat"”, Nov 4, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[19:01](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1141) looking at the future so yeah i was looking at uh calci odds for the next republican candidate jd vance's he was at like 50 something percent at one point he's now at 38 but he's still way ahead of rubio and each of the potential candidates as i see it as an outside observer represents a kind kind of a mixture of world views. Yeah. And the right is now way more divided. There's people who are major figures on the American right attacking President Trump's administration.

[19:29](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1169) Tucker's a very good example. And others are supporting. There's this big war over Israel. Like, what's going on? That was kind of the angle of my question. Well, I mean, the only consistent through line that you mentioned, Tucker. Which Tucker? Talking about CNN exclusively only wearing a bow tie every time he's seen in public, Tucker? or the one who's dressing the way that he thinks a fly fisherman should dress like.

[19:52](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1192) Right? I mean, are you talking about libertarian legalized black tar heroin? Actually, Tucker, end war on drugs, but support the war in Iraq, or I was wrong. about that the one who all but kind of endorsed el-sayed but not really which by the way to say that el-sayed is no worse than um than rogers is to say there's no bridge too far for today's left so i don't really know that that's coming from conservatives and here's the other thing i didn't see these same people out there fighting as hard in the mechanism the process that we had to ensure some accountability the primaries i saw it's very easy to go they suck they suck they suck and sit it out. But we've run the numbers, too, on this. And this is what's dangerous about it. If, let's say, God forbid, the left flips the Senate. Now, you know, if that were to happen, and they have

[20:35](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1235) both chambers, right? So Republican president, and you could swap them, Democrat president, Republican swap both. There's an 80% chance that Democrats would win in 2028. Here's the other thing. The person who would be run against Democrats is not going to be the Trump that you never got. It's going to be a Romney or McCain, historically, with effectively little to no exceptions. So people sitting and out in protest, you have to ask yourself, who are you handing it to? Why is there the fracturing? The only consistency that I see is that the people doing the fracturing have been remarkably inconsistent. All of them. Name any of them.

[21:08](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1268) They've either appeared very recently or they were lifelong liberals or libertarians who switched to MAGA, who switched back. And a valid criticism that I would say to the Trump administration is, you know, they really did buy into it as far as the shows where they would appear. It was it was basically who kissed his ass the most he never appeared on my show um and that's okay he has every right to uh he you know i haven't been to the ballrooms i wasn't there with an epstein you know binder but i was supportive of him and critical of him all the way through the same way now whereas these people were sick of fans he could do no wrong and now he could do no right that to me doesn't it's hard to see that as truthful so you don't think it's ideological You just think this is people flip-flopping because they never had a consistent position?

[21:54](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1314) They haven't had a consistent position. I don't want to attribute motive. I'm just saying that's the only... I try to look for patterns, and the pattern that I see is the biggest people, the tip of the spear there, are people who have been very inconsistent in their views. We have been consistently critical on Donald Trump where warranted and supportive. And by the way, the tough thing, too, now is people just say stuff that isn't true, right?

[22:15](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1335) That's the clip culture. I mean, even, and I said, well, you guys got a lot of great qualities, and I like you very, very much. Here it comes. But you'll have people spew bullshit here, and I know you don't have time to fact check. Well, we can't, we can't challenge everything. No, of course not. That's not, like, Dave Smith was here. By the way, he was on my show. He's a very nice guy. I mean, the best thing you can say about Dave Smith is, like, he's there.

[22:33](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1353) He's there. That's Dave Smith. He's there. And he said to you guys that I was a never-Trumper, like, twice. And I was like, what cosmic bunny hole did I fall into? And it's just, I don't know if it's because he's misinformed, stupid, but it's really hard for you guys to fact check that because why would someone lie about that? Why would someone get it wrong? Say it twice. And then these people in new media now, and I'm the person who obviously use new media to circumvent legacy media, they don't correct it.

[23:03](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1383) You know, like, you could tell. You could be like, well, Dave, hold on a second. No, I was never a never- You mean because in the primary, where I didn't support him because in the primary, he was the only one who was a lifelong Democrat, and I said, we don't need to take this risk. And after that, I've been incredibly supportive. And he's like, if you were to correct them, with a lot of these people, it's like rubbing a dog's face in their mess and they think it's a treat.

[23:22](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1402) Like, they don't get it. They don't get, you can't just go out and say shit. And that's also why we have a practice where we provide a reference for every single claim that we make. Even though we do silly, childish bullcrap and jokes and sketches and actually make it a comedy show, if I make a definitive claim, I want people to be able to fact check me. And I notice other people deliberately evading that.

[23:45](https://realalpha.app/v/Dtjhtm_TW2E/?t=1425) And that's always very concerning. Like we said, clip culture. A clip. OK, you got it. But what's the truth? So what do you think is going to be the future of MAGA, Stephen? Because it's really difficult to see where they go from here post-Trump.