# Why Pfeiffer thinks Trump's core coalition is weakening

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/why-pfeiffer-thinks-trumps-core-coalition-is-weakening/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Dan Pfeiffer](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-pfeiffer/) (Host)
- Host: [Jon Favreau](https://realalpha.app/people/jon-favreau/)
- Host: [Jon Lovett](https://realalpha.app/people/jon-lovett/)
- Show: Pod Save America
- Episode: [Trump Blasts FAKE POLLS As His Approval Rating PLUMMETS](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/), Oct 23, 2026
- Moment: 6:34 to 14:58 of the episode (8 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/why-pfeiffer-thinks-trumps-core-coalition-is-weakening/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=394

## Quote

> “And more, I think more, even more alarmingly for Republicans is that his **strong approval is 34**% with those voters.”
> — [Dan Pfeiffer](https://realalpha.app/people/dan-pfeiffer/) at [8:02](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=482) · Pod Save America

## Takeaways

1. Pfeiffer says Trump’s support among white working-class voters has fallen.
2. He says Democrats are now trusted more on every issue in the poll.
3. He sees Mississippi and South Carolina as long shots worth investing in.

## About this segment

Dan Pfeiffer reads the poll as evidence that Trump is losing support among white working-class voters and that Democrats’ standing has improved. He says turnout uncertainty still shapes the Senate map.

From “Trump Blasts FAKE POLLS As His Approval Rating PLUMMETS”, Oct 23, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[6:47](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=407) important decisions um so there is that um all right let's talk about the polls what are your takes on uh time sienna since that's the one poll we allow ourselves to nerd out about on this show If you'd have let me be in charge, we'd have a lot of different polls, especially here or there. I think there's three main takeaways here. The first is Trump's always been known as sort of a low-ceiling, high-floor politician.

[7:10](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=430) He was never going to be as popular as some presidents, but he was never going to fall to Bush-like levels because he had this loyal MAGA base. Turns out the floor is much lower than we thought. He's now in the mid-30s. He's down three or four points from the last poll in September from the times. And there's not real evidence that it's stopping here. He could continue to go down. So that's one. Not with rallies like that.

[7:32](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=452) Not with rallies like that. What he loses in people angry about gas prices, he will gain from people who also love John Husted's ass. The second point, and I think this is the more politically consequential one, is we talked a lot about how Trump's 2024 coalition has collapsed with Latinos and youngers and all that. And this poll obviously reflects that, as many have for the last year. But what is changing is that the original MAGA coalition itself is beginning to break apart.

[8:00](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=480) So in 2024, according to exit polls, Trump won white voters who didn't go to college, white working class voters who've been the core of MAGA from the beginning. He won them with 66% of the vote. In this poll, his approval rating among those voters is now 51%. And more, I think more, even more alarmingly for Republicans is that his strong approval is 34% with those voters. And so two-thirds of white working-class voters either have turned on Trump or just kind of meh about him.

[8:29](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=509) And that does not bode well for the MAGA movement either here or in the long term. And then I think the third point is the Democratic Party brand, at least among likely voters in this midterm, has recovered. The Democrats are now more trusted than Republicans on every issue, including immigration, and now are seen as the party of the working class, the party that understands problems faced by people like you.

[8:52](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=532) the party that can fix the problems faced by people like you, by double digits. These are all big swings from 2024. So it seems like they're benefiting by—the party's benefiting by comparison with the Republicans. Of course, of course. Because only 28% in the poll are satisfied with the Democratic Party. Yes, yes, yes. Absolutely. What had been curious— to date, and alarming to Democrats to date, was there had been no seesaw effect.

[9:15](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=555) Republicans went down and Democrats stayed down. And now, at least in opposition to this Republican Party, these candidates in this moment, the Democratic Party is looking better. I am not suggesting that we've solved all of our problems. Far from it. I'm not suggesting that's going to extend it to 2028. But in this election, as you were worried about some of these voters, independent Republican leading independents, former Trump voters, who'd be unwilling to vote for the party, that's it seems like we have a better chance of those voters now because the party has seen better than it was a few months ago obviously like the big mystery left in this election is the composition of the turnout and i thought it was interesting in this poll um uh they split it up so they if so it's 11 points on the generic ballot but if they uh just asked voters if they

[10:01](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=601) went by, um, who the likelihood, um, that someone says they're going to vote, uh, it goes up to 14 points. And if they just go by predicting the likelihood of someone voting based on their past vote history and identity, et cetera, um, then it goes down to nine points. So it is interesting that, um, a lot, and I think this is probably the case with a lot of these polls is when people just tell the pollster, yeah, I'm more likely to vote. Those screens tend to make the generic ballot lead for Democrats even larger. But I think pollsters are trying to weight these differently just to make sure that there's not like a big miss.

[10:45](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=645) Yeah. And one of the things that causes, maybe not specifically in the Times, but other ones, is if you're doing predicted vote, young voters are going to be less likely to vote based on past history because they either haven't voted before or because they're younger. And that's the big question here is are younger voters going to turn out in the way in which you would want them to? There's some very, very early evidence in early voting that that's happening.

[11:09](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=669) That we get a lot of low-potensity voters. Low-potensity and young voters, but I think it's way too early to know because we're in the very beginning of early vote. But I think that's a big test that we're going to get those voters. uh how real do you think this bigger redder map is uh even with these spending decisions and would you consider the bigger redder map to be mississippi and south carolina yeah i was gonna say those are the two that because now well i guess kansas too kansas is on the map now kansas is really on the map yeah so i think these are we have real shots here they're long shots but they're real shots we have good candidates in both cases there are very bad candidates on the Republican side in both of them.

[11:47](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=707) It doesn't cost a lot of money to invest in either of them. This is a place where these are the kind of bets you should be making as a party because if you were to win these seats, you had them for six years. That means you have a South Carolina Democrat, a Mississippi Democrat, into hopefully the first term of the next Democratic president, increasing our likelihood of a governing trifecta if we're able to win the White House.

[12:09](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=729) And so I think it's very real. In both cases, we have very large portions of the electorate that are black voters, made up by black voters. There's reasons to believe, based on primary turnout, that black turnout could be incredibly high. We've seen some of that in some early, obviously early, early voting data. But if that's the case, it's like it's very, I think these are, this is a place to invest, that the party should invest money. It's a place that, you know, donors should invest money to help these candidates, because I think, I do think we have a shot here. It may be a bridge too far, but it is not, This is not a fool's errand.

[12:42](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=762) Well, because again, we can't, we just don't, we can't predict turnout, right? Like you can't get from red to blue in these states with persuasion at this point. It's not like all these voters are going to just suddenly who are voting Republican in the past are going to vote Democrat. But like, if you have an election where the Republican base really is just staying home or a lot of these voters are staying home, suddenly it just becomes more real in these states.

[13:05](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=785) Mississippi is either the largest or the second largest percentage of its vote that is made up by black voters. And so you just think on paper, a huge part of the vote is made up by a group that has voted for Democrats north of 85% in most elections. If those people turn out at a very high level and Republicans stay home, that's the place where you have a shot. And in the last time there was a Senate race in Mississippi, the Democrat only lost by 10 points.

[13:31](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=811) And South Carolina is real too. And the other important thing in South Carolina is there's third-party candidates. and this is a because Darlene Graham and so I this is why I think about that is Jamie Harrison in 2020 which is I consider 2020 to be basically a 50-50 year Jamie Harrison got 44% of the vote it was like 43.8% of the vote so then your question is can Annie Andrews in South Carolina get to 50?

[13:56](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=836) Well if you have 5% of the vote or 3% 5% of the vote that goes to a third third party candidates there which I think could be possible because Darlene Graham is such an unappealing candidate, then she only has to get to 47.5. She only has to do 3.3 and a half points better than Jamie Harrison in a year that is, you know, 7 to 10 points more Democratic against a much worse Republican candidate in Darlene Graham than Lindsey Graham, who was an incumbent and a pretty good politician.

[14:24](https://realalpha.app/v/tafCtMEphVo/?t=864) You do wonder if in 2020, it's a presidential year that Jamie Harrison benefited from high black turnout in South Carolina as well, that you would get in a presidential year, specifically more than you would maybe in a midterm electorate. But on the same time, Lindsey Graham benefited probably even more by higher role white turnout with Trump on the ballot. Right, right, right.