# Why Winston Marshall says the economy led the exit poll

Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/s/why-winston-marshall-says-the-economy-led-the-exit-poll/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy.

- Speaker: [Winston Marshall](https://realalpha.app/people/winston-marshall/) · Writer, musician & podcaster · Co-founded Mumford & Sons, a Grammy-winning band, and now hosts The Winston Marshall Show.
- Host: [Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/people/konstantin-kisin/) · TRIGGERnometry
- Host: [Francis Foster](https://realalpha.app/people/francis-foster/) · TRIGGERnometry
- Show: TRIGGERnometry
- Episode: [The Midterms Breakdown + Russell Brand Found Guilty - Off the Fence](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/), Nov 6, 2026
- Moment: 10:19 to 13:42 of the episode (3 min), playing on https://realalpha.app/s/why-winston-marshall-says-the-economy-led-the-exit-poll/; the episode from there: https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=619

## Quote

> “And what is not there is **foreign policy, which is 4**”
> — [Winston Marshall](https://realalpha.app/people/winston-marshall/) at [11:56](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=716) · TRIGGERnometry

## Takeaways

1. Marshall reads the poll as showing limited direct party-switching.
2. He says the economy was the leading issue in the poll.
3. He says foreign policy registered at 4% in this issue breakdown.

## About this segment

Winston Marshall uses an NBC exit poll of 79,000 voters to argue that direct party-switching was limited and the economy mattered more than foreign policy. He says voters across parties care about corruption but mean different things by it.

From “The Midterms Breakdown + Russell Brand Found Guilty - Off the Fence”, Nov 6, 2026. [Watch the full episode](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/)

## Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

[10:25](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=625) the best exit poll i found so nbc news have done an exit poll of 79 000 voters and this is very interesting and there's a couple of things i want to highlight here now this only polls people who actually voted so those who abstained would not be included in this but for a start those who voted republican last time and voted democrat this time i switched their vote it's very very small. We're talking about 6% of the Republican uh democrat voters this time who were republican last time and likewise seven percent um of them who normally think of themselves as a republican voted democrat this time so people who actually changed votes there's not a huge amount it's pretty it's pretty small and it's not nothing but it's it's pretty small what i think is maybe a lot of people abstaining because they can't

[11:25](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=685) bring themselves to vote for the Democrats. And the other big thing which I'd like to bring up is, Dino, can you bring up the asset I had? Okay, so this is from that exact poll that I am referring to. Now, you'll see it lists which of these is the most important issue facing the economy based on Republican voters and Democrat voters in this election. And you'll see that the The most important thing is the economy at 39%.

[11:57](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=717) And that's pretty much split 52, 56 between the parties. So pretty even split. And what is not there is foreign policy, which is 4%. Now of course you'll be thinking, well, foreign policy, the Iran war affects the price of gasoline. And in the same polling shows that people actually really care about the price of gasoline. But I think that goes in the face of a lot of the common tree that we're hearing, which sort of blaming Israel and Iran. It's more specific. It's about the economy. And there's also right at the bottom, the second big issue is the state of democracy, which Konstantin referred to. And I think within that comes the idea of corruption. And what's interesting about the corruption thing, obviously there you can see the Democrats care a lot about corruption. And And you already mentioned what some of those issues will be, but it would include sort

[12:53](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=773) of the Trump coin and what does he call it? He calls it World Liberty Financial. I think it will include the Qatari jet that he got, the pardons, the clemency, the family business deals. I also think though, for Republicans who think that way, who voted Republican, they'll think of corruption about, they'll remember Equality Leering Center in Minneapolis. And for them, corruption means something different. And it will be that they see the Democrats as corruption, but it's nevertheless an important issue for voters. So for me, I found this to be a very interesting exit poll and trying to understand what people really wanted. And before I sort of