# The Midterms Breakdown + Russell Brand Found Guilty - Off the Fence Markdown copy of https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/ on Real Alpha, the best minutes from long interviews with the people building AI. Cite and link the page, not this copy. Winston Marshall and Tom Slater debate whether Trump's losses expose a fractured coalition and what the Russell Brand case reveals about Britain's justice system. - Show: TRIGGERnometry - Hosts: [Konstantin Kisin](https://realalpha.app/people/konstantin-kisin/) & [Francis Foster](https://realalpha.app/people/francis-foster/) - Guest: [Winston Marshall](https://realalpha.app/people/winston-marshall/) · Writer, musician & podcaster - Guest: [Tom Slater](https://realalpha.app/people/tom-slater/) · Editor, Spiked - Published: Nov 6, 2026 - Length: 1 h 6 m ## The best minutes - [53:57](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3237) [Why Konstantin Kisin says libel risk kept allegations quiet](https://realalpha.app/s/why-konstantin-kisin-says-libel-risk-kept-allegations-quiet/) (4 min) - [18:03](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1083) [Why Francis Foster thinks AI fears may trouble Republicans](https://realalpha.app/s/why-francis-foster-thinks-ai-fears-may-trouble-republicans/) (2 min) ## Also worth watching - [10:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=619) [Why Winston Marshall says the economy led the exit poll](https://realalpha.app/s/why-winston-marshall-says-the-economy-led-the-exit-poll/) (3 min) - [27:58](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1678) [Why Konstantin Kisin says the Iran decision was impulsive](https://realalpha.app/s/why-konstantin-kisin-says-the-iran-decision-was-impulsive/) (4 min) - [38:54](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2334) [Why Tom Slater sees a sharp shift among young male voters](https://realalpha.app/s/why-tom-slater-sees-a-sharp-shift-among-young-male-voters/) (4 min) - [13:37](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=817) [Why Francis Foster says deportation tactics can erode support](https://realalpha.app/s/why-francis-foster-says-deportation-tactics-can-erode/) (3 min) - [57:33](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3453) [Why Winston Marshall questions consistency in UK prosecutions](https://realalpha.app/s/why-winston-marshall-questions-consistency-in-uk/) (5 min) Skip the election-results recap, candidate succession discussion, and the Brand case chronology before the verdict debate. ## Full analysis: Konstantin Kisin says economy led at 39%, foreign policy at four percent - Konstantin Kisin cited an NBC exit poll where 39% named the economy and four percent foreign policy. - That supports an economy-first reading, but does not isolate the Iran war's effect on prices. - Leaders should separate voter priorities from policy execution, especially on AI siting and enforcement. Its 7 sections, what it means for you and what to watch are on [the page](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/#analysis), free with an account: - [11:52](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=712) Kisin says the exit poll puts economy ahead of foreign policy - [25:44](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1544) Inflation's accumulated bill outlasts a slower rate - [15:01](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=901) Border support weakens when enforcement becomes visible - [18:49](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1129) AI opposition links data centers to local costs and jobs - [29:16](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1756) Kisin says Iran decision lacked long-term planning - [41:07](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2467) A 48-point swing shows coalition fragility, not permanence - [1:03:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3835) Brand's verdict debate turns on evidence and consistency ## Summary Winston Marshall is introduced as host of The Winston Marshall Show. Tom Slater is introduced as being from Spike. Francis Foster and Winston Marshall say voters turned against Republicans over costs and the Iran war; Tom Slater argues that Trump ceded economic ground and let corruption and distractions fracture his coalition. Konstantin Kisin says exit-poll data put the economy and corruption ahead of foreign policy, while the panel debates immigration enforcement, AI infrastructure and the Israel dispute. Kisin warns that Democrats could focus on investigations instead of economic concerns; Slater says Republicans need to rebuild their coalition, and Foster stresses the need for a unifying successor to Trump. On Russell Brand, Slater outlines the conviction and polarized reaction; Marshall questions the case and the justice system's consistency, while Slater points to testimony he says supported the verdict. ### Minute by minute - [2:16](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=136) **Foster and Slater blame unmet voter concerns.** Foster says Trump voters who backed him for closing the border were frustrated by living costs and the Iran war. He points to Texas's Senate flip and John Ossoff's speech as Democratic openings. Slater argues Trump ceded economic ground, while corruption and distractions weakened the coalition. - [9:02](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=542) **Kisin says voters prioritized the economy.** Kisin cites an NBC exit poll of 79,000 voters and says 39% named the economy as the top issue, against 4% for foreign policy. He says party-switching was limited, citing 6% of Democratic voters who had backed Republicans previously and 7% of Republican voters who voted Democrat this time; he suggests abstention may also explain the result. - [13:37](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=817) **Foster links foreign policy to household costs.** Foster argues that voters cannot separate foreign policy from household economics, noting debate over tariffs and the Iran war's effect on fuel prices. He says closing the border was popular, but visuals and stories around deportations alienated Hispanic voters and others. - [16:26](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=986) **Kisin and Foster flag competing party pressures.** Kisin says J.D. Vance's refusal to distance himself from Tucker Carlson reflects a Republican faction that sees the US relationship with Israel as a central problem. Foster adds that voters worry about data centers' effects on water, electricity prices and entry-level white-collar jobs, citing campaign ads and Ossoff's speech. - [20:41](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1241) **Slater sees a new Democratic coalition.** Slater argues that Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan win signals a Democratic coalition that combines progressive cultural politics with what Slater characterizes as apologism toward Islamism. He cites allegations about family ties, a reported campaign call after Ayatollah Khomeini's assassination, and El-Sayed's response to a synagogue attack. - [22:54](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1374) **Foster and Marshall weigh immigration's impact.** Foster says southern-border crossings and fentanyl levels had fallen, but corrects an earlier estimate of deportations from 10–15% to 5–10% of Biden-era undocumented immigrants. Marshall notes that many Republican voters supported the Iran strikes, while the panel continues to identify living costs as a key grievance. - [26:54](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1614) **Kisin says Trump mishandled the Iran war.** Kisin says some Americans supported preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon but opposed Trump's handling of the war. He argues that blaming Netanyahu lets MAGA supporters avoid Trump's own impulsive decision and cites questions about preparation, interceptor stocks, hardened bases and the Strait of Hormuz. - [32:16](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1936) **Slater says Iran war weakened Trump's appeal.** Slater argues that the Iran war cost Trump the reassurance that had helped win over reluctant voters: a stronger economy and no new wars. He says Republicans should focus on ordinary voters' concerns, not just disputes among the most active online factions. - [34:54](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2094) **Kisin and Marshall debate what Democrats may do.** Kisin says Democrats may use control of both chambers for investigations and impeachment rather than address the cost of living, and argues he sees no evidence of policies to fix it. Marshall says they can advance their agenda at state level and cites Bill Clinton's 1994 losses of 54 House seats and eight Senate seats before his 1996 presidential win. Kisin cites a Gallup poll saying 71% opposed data centers in their local area. - [40:37](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2437) **Slater says Trump's coalition has fractured.** Slater cites swings among Latino men, suburbanites and men under 30, including a 48-point swing among men under 30 between 2024 and 2026, and says Trump's coalition needs a new offer. Marshall counters that Trump can still shape foreign policy and may not be finished politically. - [43:34](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2614) **Foster says Republicans need a new leader.** Foster says parties need a compelling frontman and argues that Republicans will struggle to follow Trump. He says John Ossoff's speech showed a possible Democratic talent for attracting the center; Kisin points to Ron DeSantis, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as possible Republican contenders. - [49:00](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2940) **Slater describes Brand's conviction and its fallout.** Slater reports that Brand was convicted of one count of rape and three counts of sexual assault, with the complaints in this case coming after the 2023 Times and Dispatches investigation. He describes online reactions split between questions about how Brand operated for so long and supporters rejecting the verdict. Foster says Brand's ability to draw listeners and revenue helped him keep work; Kisin says libel suits silenced people and argues that Brand's political shift does not undo the conviction. - [57:33](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3453) **Marshall questions the justice system's consistency.** Marshall says he is not claiming Brand is innocent but questions a case based on testimony without forensic or video evidence, and compares it with failures to prosecute grooming-gang cases. Slater replies that testimony is evidence, citing eight people who said the complainant told them soon after the encounter and a nurse who said she reported it in 2009. He warns that requiring DNA or video evidence could make historic cases harder to pursue. ## Transcript TRIGGERnometry, hosted by Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster, with Winston Marshall and Tom Slater. Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there. [0:04](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=4) my Trigonometry co-host, Francis Foster, Winston Marshall of The Winston Marshall Show, and, of course, Tom Slater from Spike. Gentlemen, welcome back. What a week of news it's been. We've only got two massive stories, but they're so massive, that's why we're only doing two, and that is, of course, the midterms and the very recent conviction of Russell Brand. And let us start, I think, with the midterms. And let me just give a summary of what's happened, then we can get stuck into the discussion. The Democrats won both houses of Congress, the House and the Senate. They flipped in the Senate seven Republican seats, including Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Maine, without losing any of their own, giving them a 54 to 44 majority, with Alaska and Mississippi still counting. [0:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=55) Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, almost 100 years. And Texas elected a Democrat statewide for the first time since 1994. In the House, Dems have won at least 251 seats, flipping around 40 and building their biggest majority since 2008. And about two dozen races are still to call. Now, Trump's approval rating with those who voted was 38%, which is the lowest of any president at a midterm. The economy was voters' top issue, but also 9 in 10 voters called government corruption a major factor, and most said the Iran war was a mistake as well. Well, these are counts as of this morning, as I mentioned, a few seats are still being counted. [1:45](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=105) And the recriminations within the Republicans have already begun. There's obviously questions about what this will mean going forward for the last two years of Trump's presidency and a lot more to discuss. So Francis, oh, I should say one final thing is actually, while this is a British show, me, Francis, and Tom are in the US right now. So we're actually on the ground and have been talking to people. Francis, what have you made of it? We've obviously hosted a few conversations about it with people, spoken to people off camera, read a lot about it. What's been your takeaway? way well my take has basically been the trump voters voted for in particular one or two let's say three things number one was closing the border which trump did and they're very happy with the way that the border was closed number two it's the economy stupid the great the very famous line and trump voters feel that the economy hasn't been tackled properly the cost of living keeps spiraling inflation keeps going up the gap between rich and poor is ever widening and this is not what they voted for when it came To a Trump presidency, they thought a Trump presidency would actually be tackling these issues more effectively. And also, they feel incredibly, incredibly frustrated with the war in Iran. The phrase that everybody uses, no more forever wars. And they feel that the rising prices that they feel both at the gas station and at the supermarket, they feel that the war in Iran is largely to blame for that. [3:28](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=208) So at the moment, when you talk to ordinary Americans, particularly those who voted for Trump, who were not normally Trump voters or Republican voters, there is a sense of frustration. And there is a sense that this presidency hasn't been what they actually voted for. And you can see right now what's actually happened. I think the story of so far, I think there's two major stories so far of the midterms. Number one is the flipping of Texas, which is just a huge, huge, huge story. And number two, the rise of John Ossoff, the Georgian senator. Because you and I, KK, we watched his speech. We watched him deliver. [4:16](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=256) We watched what he was talking about. And I have to say, it was a barnstorming speech. It's a great orator. He looks like somebody who could actually really galvanise the centre and centre-right, possibly, if this trend continues, to vote Democrat. So it's really interesting to see what the next two years are going to be. Well, just on that, before the guys jump in, the Calciots for the next Democratic nominee, he absolutely shot up in that, as you can see. So he is now at 26%. He was actually, I believe, a little bit higher than that at one point. And on the Republican side, you know, I talked about the recriminations. [5:00](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=300) One of the things that is happening is one of the Republicans who's actually been willing to talk publicly about corruption, the need to make sure that there's no stock trading by politicians, et cetera, is Ron DeSantis, who's gone from basically zero to, yes, he's behind J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, but he is absolutely shot up as a result. Because, as I mentioned in my introduction, even if you talk to right-wing voters and even right-wing commentators, the corruption within the Trump administration, the fact that Susie Wilde's daughters are making millions, allegedly, from lobbying and all sorts of other things that people will bring up, that was a big issue, including for Trump's own voters as well. [5:50](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=350) And so the fact that Ron DeSantis is doing so well is an indicator of the fact that the entire administration is now losing support with their own base. I think that's right. And also, it's so clear why this happened. I mean, we can look at the exit polls, the question of, I'm going to try not to knock over my own laptop here. We've all seen those exit polls. We see that the cost of living was the primary concern. we see how many people are concerned about corruption and also the sense that the iran war certainly underpins the price at the pump people have realized the sort of grand folly of this and that it's now having huge domestic political consequences for trump but there's also a broader sense in which he has forgotten who put him in the white house in the first place those kind of forgotten men and women of flyover country of the rust belt who took a chance at him in 2016 and the fact that what made his movement so potent originally was it fused their kind of economic concerns, de-industrialisation, the fact that the bread and butter issues weren't being attended to, even by the parties that would like to think of themselves as looking after the working class, i.e. the Democrats. [6:57](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=417) But also there was this immigration dimension, the fact that there was this immigration dimension, Their concerns about the influx of people at the southern border and elsewhere was just being totally dismissed. And also the cultural question, the fact that they were being condescended to that there was this new liberal left elite who had some pretty kooky views and didn't have much time for the more traditional values of people across America. That would all sort of start to break down. You had Trump going into this election having effectively ceded the economic ground to the Democrats, not that they've got any answers to what is ailing Americans but by dint of broadly speaking opposing the Iran war and being able to highlight just how difficult things are getting out there that ground was given to them and then in the meantime you've not only got the corruption which is clearly filtered through but also just the absurdity of you know Trump continuing to cycle through swatches about you know what the curtains are going to look like in the presidential ballroom meanwhile people are really struggling out there And a sense that even though this is by no means a vindication of the Democrats in their curious ideologies, all the open borders, greenism, all the nonsense they've been marinating themselves in over the past few years, it's so obvious to me that the failures of the Trump administration basically handed states which historically have been deep red to the Democrats in a way that could so easily have been avoided. [8:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=499) if he had just focused on that domestic agenda rather than getting himself into all of these entanglements I don't think we would be here and what's fascinating is it's infuriated sections of all of the key aspects that you would need to piece that coalition together the MAGA base has broken down over the issue of Iran as well as some other issues as well the kind of floating voter is now being repelled because of the cost of living concerns and even the pre-trump republican based deep red states places like kansas what have you which i think the last time they had a democrat wizard of oz was still in the cinemas uh shows you just how lethal all of those mistakes and blunders the ira more to the fore have been for him i would say that your guys analysis is considerably more nuanced than what we're hearing not just from podcast istan who i had a quick look and it seems to be a lot of chat about the zionists in iran and i also listened this morning to the bbc for their analysis i couldn't quite believe it but they they framed it as completely catastrophic is sort of historically catastrophic, which is neither true, which I'll explain why, and certainly not impartial as the BBC is supposed to be. At one point, the commentator, [9:43](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=583) I forget her name, said, wouldn't it be amazing if he gets impeached as a consequence? But before I get to what happens next, I think it's interesting. I've been trying to work out exactly why what happened, what happened, what happened, happened. The vice president, have you guys seen his uh tweet he he talks about he claims four things he says it's he he he wants to listen to the people to his voters and they want an end to the war a focus on cost of living and inflation to put america first and change the relationship with israel now that actually he's got he claims the sort of the best pollsters on the on the job but that actually contradicts the best exit poll i found so nbc news have done an exit poll of 79 000 voters and this is very interesting and there's a couple of things i want to highlight here now this only polls people who actually voted so those who abstained would not be included in this but for a start those who voted republican last time and voted democrat this time i switched their vote it's very very small. We're talking about 6% of the Republican uh democrat voters this time who were republican last time and likewise seven percent um of them who normally think of themselves as a republican voted democrat this time so people who actually [11:14](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=674) changed votes there's not a huge amount it's pretty it's pretty small and it's not nothing but it's it's pretty small what i think is maybe a lot of people abstaining because they can't bring themselves to vote for the Democrats. And the other big thing which I'd like to bring up is, Dino, can you bring up the asset I had? Okay, so this is from that exact poll that I am referring to. Now, you'll see it lists which of these is the most important issue facing the economy based on Republican voters and Democrat voters in this election. And you'll see that the The most important thing is the economy at 39%. [11:57](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=717) And that's pretty much split 52, 56 between the parties. So pretty even split. [12:02](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=722) **Winston Marshall:** And what is not there is foreign policy, which is 4%. [12:08](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=728) Now of course you'll be thinking, well, foreign policy, the Iran war affects the price of gasoline. And in the same polling shows that people actually really care about the price of gasoline. But I think that goes in the face of a lot of the common tree that we're hearing, which sort of blaming Israel and Iran. It's more specific. It's about the economy. And there's also right at the bottom, the second big issue is the state of democracy, which Konstantin referred to. And I think within that comes the idea of corruption. And what's interesting about the corruption thing, obviously there you can see the Democrats care a lot about corruption. And And you already mentioned what some of those issues will be, but it would include sort of the Trump coin and what does he call it? [12:58](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=778) He calls it World Liberty Financial. I think it will include the Qatari jet that he got, the pardons, the clemency, the family business deals. I also think though, for Republicans who think that way, who voted Republican, they'll think of corruption about, they'll remember Equality Leering Center in Minneapolis. And for them, corruption means something different. And it will be that they see the Democrats as corruption, but it's nevertheless an important issue for voters. So for me, I found this to be a very interesting exit poll and trying to understand what people really wanted. And before I sort of to go further. I wonder if anyone had any opinions of what I've just said before I sort of launch into other details. Well, you mentioned it there. I mean, the interesting thing is how do you divorce foreign policy from the economy? And this is part of the big debate here in America, especially on the right, because there are people who say, well, look, look at the polling that Winston's just presented. Foreign policy is not a big issue for voters. And in fact, they would argue the reason that prices have gone up as much as they did is trump's tariffs policy which was why it was actually quietly but widely unpopular on the right with his own supporters and many [14:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=859) people in the commentariat and the the problem with that argument is prices for everything have gone up across the world so if it was about trump's tariffs policy that wouldn't be driving the the rising prices of everything in the UK, in France, in Germany, all over Europe, etc. The other thing probably worth mentioning is how little credit Trump has got for his immigration policies. And in fact, one of the key demographics that he massively slid back with was his panics. And a lot of people attribute that to the fact that while closing the border was kind of popular with everybody. The ICE raids, the way that they were done, some of the visuals, some of the mistakes that were made, they really were something that angered the Hispanic community in particular, but actually angered many people across the board. And so people who were very, very supportive of the idea of closing borders, nonetheless found themselves in opposition to immigration policy overall because of what they perceived as being the excesses of it and not to sidetrack the conversation entirely but it's I think there's some relevance here for the debates that we have in the UK and elsewhere about you know there's this very popular I [15:43](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=943) certainly on the fringes of the right very popular idea of you know what we need is mass deportations I think one of the big takeaways from all of this is actually that when the public, even some of whom are prepared to accept or even support the idea of, you know, we've got a big problem with illegal immigration, we've got to deal with it. [16:04](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=964) **Francis Foster:** When they are confronted with the visual imagery and the narrative stories of what happens to people who are deported and how they're deported and seeing all of that happen. [16:15](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=975) actually that's when the rubber meets the road and you see that it's one thing to say that you care about this issue and it's a totally different thing uh to actually carry out and and have a sustained policy on that that people will continue to support um so that there's a mix of things but i think uh in my view the idea that you can divorce domestic economics from foreign policy in this instance is just very hard to say. Now, I agree with you, Winston. J.D. Vance did a very long tweet, which was essentially, we've got four problems in America. The first is Israel. The second is Israel. The third is Israel. And the fourth also happens to be Israel. And it's now very clear. There's been this big question over J.D. Vance and his association with Tucker Carlson. [17:05](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1025) Tucker Carlson has been very, very active in undermining Trump both before the election when he, you know, there's no evidence to support this, but he claimed that Trump was about to nuke Iran because Bibi wants him to. And now here only yesterday he did a tweet with the words, the great betrayal showing all the times that Trump promised something and then didn't do it. But I think it's becoming very, very clear to a lot of people that the reason J.D. Vance refused to distance himself from Tucker Carlson is that Tucker Carlson is the mouthpiece of J.D. Vance. He says all the things that J.D. Vance doesn't want to be pinned as saying, and he is clearly the wing of the Republican Party that is persuaded that, you know, the big problem America faces is its relationship with Israel. [18:01](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1081) There are other people who are making different sorts of arguments, and that is now the source of the infighting within the party. i also think one of the issues that we haven't discussed is the issue of ai and data centers when constantin and i were in um austin when we were filming some interviews we were watching youtube and because we weren't signed into uh to a youtube channel we were essentially getting bombarded with political ads and it was so interesting because the democrat side james Tallarico, that was one of the things that he referenced. He was talking about data centers. He was talking about the impact that it was going to have on communities. If you talk to people, the average person on the street, and you talk to them about AI, there is a real fear. There is a fear that what, you know, the data centers, the impact it's going to have. [19:01](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1141) on the water, on electricity prices. But there's also a real fear as to what this technology [19:08](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1148) **Francis Foster:** is going to do to the job market. And we can already see the impact it's actually having on the job market, particularly entry-level white-collar jobs. So there's a real, real [19:20](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1160) angst around this. And in fact, just going back to John Ossoff, when John Ossoff delivered that barnstorming speech when they announced his victory he referenced ai and he referenced all you know the tech the uh the data centers this is a massive issue and one of the things i think that we're not talking about is trump's association with the data centers and maybe his base will were also thinking and the people who decided to swing over were thinking well this is the presidency of the tech oligarch the tech overlord and he's not as interested in the little guy as he purports to be and the kind if you take something like the race in texas as well the way in which there was this attempt to kind of shift it back onto much more comfortable ground for the republicans so talarico being branded talafrico because of the fact that as with all democrats it's there's no end of absurd quotes that he's issued over the years you know there are six genders god is non-binary the american flag is a complicated symbol all of this was thrown at him and it just looked like changing the subject because those more fundamental issues of the economy where everything is going feel like they're getting away from the republicans and [20:42](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1242) to i suppose shift the conversation slightly i think one if we're talking about the democrats the democratic side of this and the new figures that have emerged through this obviously on top of john ossoff and james talariko have already mentioned abdul al-sayed in michigan is clearly worth a mention him triumphing in the senators race there is a really significant development not least because i think you can most gently describe it he's got a very clear history of islamist apologism it's quite clear that various members of his family from egypt were involved in the Muslim Brotherhood, including his own mother, at least that's according to his half-sister. [21:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1279) He claims to be estranged from her, but nevertheless, that's there. After the Ayatollah Khomeini was assassinated earlier this year, there was this leaked internal call that El-Sahid was having with his campaign staff saying that he was going to keep entirely quiet about it because there are a lot of people in Dearborn who will be sad today. Dearborn, of course, being America's first and only, as I understand it, Arab-majority city, and it was the city... A couple of people on Trigger Norbitry were sad about it as well. Exactly. And a rare point of unity between Francis and Dearborn, Michigan there. [21:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1315) And those were the voters who put him over the top in the primary. It was a very close primary. And those places, Dearborn and also Hamtramck, places like that, were the difference for him. Earlier this year, there was an attack on a synagogue in Michigan by a Lebanese national. And his response was to say that hurt people hurt people. So there is this sense in which maybe Tallarico is a little bit of a reminder of the slightly more cartoonish wokedom and identity politics of the Democrats previously. In the form of El Saeed, I think we see the new bays that the Democratic Party is in where kind of cultural politics is concerned, which is that they have sort of maintained a lot of the woke stuff. [22:33](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1353) that's just a given but bolted onto it now is this sort of islamo leftist jihadi sheik almost that seems to at the very least um forms takes the form of making excuses for or turning a blind eye to islamist extremism and that's something which is uh we're more accustomed to it in europe i think is a grim and brave new world for america to be entering into Yeah, I think there's a sort of irony here, which is that Trump has brought net migration or south border crossings down to zero. The fentanyl crisis is like massively down, which is completely linked to that problem. And he's deported between 10 and 15% of Biden's illegals, of which I think there's 10 to 15 million. Now, that actually is pretty low if think about how many Biden brought into the country, but it's still a lot of people that he's managed to deport. And yet at this election, you have this Abdul El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian students, and he's linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. He seems like an Islamist. He doesn't seem like a particularly nice chap. There's a viral video of him this week with a Scottish Sky News journal. [23:54](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1434) I don't know if you saw this, and he's holding the shoulders of the journalists almost. I mean, you just don't touch journalists. I've never seen that before where someone touches. Anyway, all this to say that Trump actually seems to be doing pretty well on some measures on sorting out the immigration issue. And yet the result has been nine more Somalis like Ilhan Omar elected to the Senate or Congress. And you're kind of like, have a mismatch there which as constant i think is right is lessons to be learned about what what that means in britain and the sort of the politics of immigration there's one detail i will bring up though constantine which is that actually of republican voters they largely in this same nbc exit poll agree with the uh the idea that u.s made the right decision in taking military action against Iran. So again, that doesn't include people who didn't vote and so are not including this. But voters, there's still people, still some of MAGA do think it was the right decision to make. So that all to say is to me, is that I'll make one more point here actually, is that inflation is actually, it's absolutely the case that food and gas prices are up, but inflation is at uh a better position as far as if i've got my facts right here then it was certainly under [25:24](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1524) biden um or at least the rate inflation is it's not nearly as bad as it was under biden um so actually might be worth getting uh uh your ai uh guys who are they called venice ai um to check where the current inflation rate is and how that compares to biden but um we can but you've got to remember that inflation is a cumulative thing, right? So if you've had a terrible period of inflation under the previous presidency, and then on top of that, you continue to have inflation under the current presidency, people don't go, oh, you know, my prices went up by, just for the sake of argument, 20% under Joe Biden, and now they've only gone up by another 10% under President Trump. That still feels like, well, it doesn't feel like your prices have still gone up by 30%, right no it's much less than that but yeah and of course it is these are numbers i'm using for the sake of ease of calculation um go ahead if i could just finish the point which is that although i absolutely it's clear that the cost of living is the issue and i and i agree that people right to feel like that's the problem it's clearly a problem it's a massive problem at the same time there are wins here that it i feel like it might have been that trump did a bad job of selling [26:42](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1602) what he was doing to the american public and selling what and so that's a i would see that as a failure of trump in the in the things he has achieved he has not done a good job at all of selling it to the american public but i still think that these failures are legitimate that's That's the point I wanted to make. That's very interesting. And the one thing I would add on your point about the Iran war, there is no doubt that a portion of the American right in particular, and there'll be some people on the left, by the way, as well, who feel that the slogan is Iran can't have a nuclear weapon, and which I think we probably all agree with. [27:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1639) but at the same time there is the feeling that while the decision to go to war is you know theoretically the correct one actually the way it was prosecuted was terrible this is something we just had uh we recorded an interview with sam harris yesterday uh and i sort of said to him sam isn't it ironic that trump whom you hate has been undone by a policy which you actually support and that's kind of what happened there but Trump's but Sam's rather point was it's the right war it just wasn't done right and there is a lot of that there's also by the way you know I think coming back to the conversation about you know Bibi Netanyahu who's tricked America or has tricked Trump into this it's interesting because to me what I see in that attempt to say that is a complete lack of understanding of a how the world works because it works exactly the other way around bb does whatever trump tells him to effectively but more than that it's a way i think it's a way for the maga die hard to cope with the reality that trump did something that they didn't support and they have to find a way to explain why that happened and they can't admit that actually it was Trump's impetuous and perhaps impulsive nature, [28:43](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1723) which at this point, at the age that he's at, you have to wonder why that is. Now, he's always been an impulsive person, but we know that impulsivity can increase in some people as they get older. And I think that is a kind of cope that is also going on. People don't want to recognize that trump went into venezuela it was not a thing that he'd prepared for for 10 years with strategic planning and the thing with the iran war and we know this from everybody we've spoken to within [29:16](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1756) **Konstantin Kisin:** the administration it was an impulsive decision based on the idea that we're on a roll here and [29:23](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1763) a lot of people who will say i support dealing with iran will nonetheless say the way that trump did it was wrong and bad the preparation wasn't enough the investment wasn't enough how come we didn't have enough interceptors how come this how come our bases weren't hardened against the inevitable retaliation how come we didn't anticipate or didn't at least prepare for the closure of the strahomers etc so yes there are a lot of people in america who think iran needed to be dealt with and its nuclear threat is a problem that doesn't necessarily mean that they support the way that trump did it and it uh to your point about immigration just finally i mean it is fascinating to me because those are undeniably closing the border is a massive massive win and everybody who really cared about that issue which was a lot of americans will know that that's what happened and for that to be an issue only four percent of the public care about it's almost like oh you you know you've solved that problem what have you done for me lately And I think there was a lot of that going on. And look, you know, to a lot of people, the immigration thing is important, but partly theoretical. It's a thing that happens on TV screens and to which they object, but their local error may not be directly being affected. They nonetheless think it's wrong. [30:49](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1849) but when you wake up every morning and you're thinking about how to feed your kids that week and how to make sure that you can afford to go to the to actually go physically to where you need to go, etc. Those are things that are on people's minds, and they're pressing on a daily basis in the way that even something as frustrating and angering as masses of illegal immigrants coming into your country, it's still more immediate and more visceral than that, especially once you've fixed the immigration problem. It's a weird irony. Yeah, and on the Iran war... can i correct one detail on immigration so i said 10 to 15 percent of illegals deported it's actually five to ten percent it's actually lower sorry yeah not because of everything going on in the news and the concerns both francis and i have about the direction of economic travel we've been buying quite a bit of gold our gold dealer is the pure gold company whether you're looking to diversify your investments protect your savings or just gain the security of owning a real physical asset, we highly recommend the Pure Gold Company. So if you're in the UK and you want to protect your savings with physical gold, scan the QR code on the screen right now, [32:04](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1924) click the link in the description, or go to pure-gold.co.otf to get your free copy of their Guide to Buying Gold. And remember, do your own research. The price of gold can go up as well as down, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. That site again is pure-gold.co.otf. So on the Iran war, it was always obvious that this was going to be hung around Trump's neck. The question was, was it going to be a medal or an albatross? And that's proven to be an albatross. And we'll have arguments for decades to come as to whether or not it could have been prosecuted differently. That will rage on. But the fact of the matter is, it's got him up to this point. And I think we've spoken a lot about the kind of MAGA base, the really active people the really engaged people the people who are going to be following uh jd vance's tweets and tucker carlson's post-match analysis with a fine tooth comb we've also got to think about the voters broadly speaking and this is the thing about trump he has always been an incredibly polarizing figure there were a lot of people who voted for him oftentimes with their hands holding their nose and what were the arguments they would always make they'd be like yeah he's a bit crazy [33:14](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=1994) sometimes or he says things i don't agree with but isn't the economy doing and he hasn't got us into any new wars and he's getting on top of immigration that would often be what you would hear it's worth remembering that a lot of voters who backed him will have voted for democrats previously will have been independent or will have been a more kind of classical style republican who wouldn't have liked a lot of what he was doing but nevertheless on those three issues you would hear people say on balance it's been good problem with the iran war is it knocks out the economic argument and and it knocks out the no new wars argument so what are you left with um so all of these things are interconnected it's pretty clear the public have made those connections as well and i i feel like going forward the one thing that um the republicans would really screw up by doing is focusing too much on what is the argument what is the narrative forming amongst the most kind of active aspects of their base when if they're going to get back towards um having a viable presidential run in two years time if they're going to get back towards actually taking political power again then they're going to have to look at actually what just americans writ large are [34:22](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2062) thinking and they're not obsessing over israel to be perfectly frank they can see how foreign policy is impacted upon domestic policy obviously but some of the arguments that are being waged on the kind of online right at the moment i think are pretty divorced from where most people on. Shall we move on to talking about the future here? Because this is another dimension of this we actually haven't addressed, but it's very important. Because if you are one of those voters who voted against the Republicans, let's say, on the basis that the cost of living is too high, et cetera, et cetera. The fact of the matter I don't think we see any evidence that the Democrats have policies that are actually going to address this. And so that vote of frustration is perfectly understandable. Whether it delivers any results is an interesting thing, is one thing I would put on the table for our discussion. [35:19](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2119) The other thing is one of the big challenges, and I remember talking about this with Coleman Hughes on his podcast, is if the Democrats get both the House and the Senate, if you remember in the past, they've been able to impeach Trump, but they were never able to remove him because it takes a vote in the Senate to actually do that. Well, now they control both houses. And the question is, is Trump going to spend the next two years in all sorts of investigations, impeachment hearings, et cetera? Not least because even his supporters, many of them now readily admit that he has given a lot of ammunition to people who want to prosecute him, members of his family, members of his administration on the basis of corruption and all sorts of other nefarious activity. [36:12](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2172) And the reality is, I suspect, is once the Democrats start digging, there is going to be no shortage of information that supports the idea that Trump or his people have committed all sorts of offenses while in office. And so you will potentially have simultaneously Democrats controlling both houses of Congress without necessarily addressing the concerns that people voted on the basis of and also spending a lot of time trying to basically get Trump out of office or paralyze his presidency. And so you may have not only a lame duck presidency, but a sort of lame duck that has been chased, hunted down endlessly by hunters, whose only focus is the lame duck and not the economy and not the reality of people's lives. [37:03](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2223) Well, what's going to happen at the federal level is the because he still has his veto and this isn't an addressing your impeachment. this is just addressing general legislation the democrats are going to keep putting forward proposals which they know are going to get vetoed by trump but for them it's just their way of signaling what they're about so come the next presidential they can be like this is my this is my legislative record but at the state level you've already there's a funny thing that happened was that the AI companies' value just massive plummet because at the state level, they're going to start working against AI companies. [37:46](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2266) Now, I know Francis said people, you know, average person on the street really cares about data centers, but this same poll, this NBC poll, it suggests it's really largely a Democrat. It's largely an issue for those on the left, less so those on the right. Winston, may I throw some facts in on this? Because I actually, while we were talking, looked this up. So I looked this up with Venice AI, and I said, because my understanding was opposition to data centers is actually a bilateral issue. And the answer is mostly yes. Majorities of both parties oppose new data centers in their area, though Democrats oppose them more strongly. [38:26](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2306) A Gallup poll in March found that 71% of Americans opposed data centers in their local area, including 75% of Democrats, 74% of Independents, and 63% of Republicans. The intensity gap, yes, 56% of Democrats strongly oppose them, 39% of Republicans. So there is a discrepancy, but the fact of the matter is a significant chunk of Americans do not want data centers in particular in their backyard. Sorry, Winston, carry on. No, no, yeah, I think I... So that that kind of aligns with the NBC data. I would also just make the case, I said this at the beginning of why I thought the BBC were wrong to say this is a historic catastrophe for Trump and the Republicans, is that in 1994, Clinton lost 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate, which is more on both counts than Trump has lost here. [39:30](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2370) and then went on to win the presidential in 1996 and there's been similar other scenarios where you can have big change and actually the voters can be more capricious than one realizes one sort of assumes it's kind of tribal and i think people are prepared to move around with their vote and it doesn't mean that they can't come back so long as they diagnose what went wrong a bit better i think. And there's just one other detail that I found interesting with regards to why the votes might have gone where they're gone. And the Wall Street Journal did a review of how much people have moved around the country in the last two years. And you have had a lot of people moving from the north to the south. And so that might partially explain some of the change. And for example, Hispanics in the South has increased from 22% up from 13% in that period. And if the Hispanics are not happy about what they've seen about the deportations, I think he's lost them there. And so it's interesting how the demographics move. Sorry, but you're right, we should talk about what this means for next. And on that question, it's interesting that if you look at the coalition that they put together last time around so we've spoken a bit about latinos latino [40:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2455) men in particular moving away from the republicans in a big way but it's also like suburbanites it's also young men there was one fox news poll which looked at men under 30 so in 2024 trump were had [41:07](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2467) **Tom Slater:** won the republicans had won amongst them by plus 15 points by 2026 the democrats had won amongst them by plus 33 so that's a swing of 48 in the space of two years but i think that's a really [41:18](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2478) fascinating insight into just how quickly this is all unraveled because it's not to say that the republic has done for generations now it's not to say that this is a hole that they can never climb themselves out of i think what it's clear is that the trump project has unraveled uh the extent to which trump was a vehicle for the discontent not just as a sort of forgotten working class although in large part that was clear but also various other constituencies who felt that America was on the wrong track, that it had been trapped in sort of globalist ideology, woke pieties and needed just a complete shake-up, I think now that has drawn to a close. [41:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2515) And that even though, obviously, he was not going to, despite his protestations, he was not going to run for the presidency again, there's a sense that there needs to be a rethink, there needs to be a recalibration, and there needs to be a different offer or a different form that is put forward in order to bring those people back together. Whilst I agree that the 2024 coalition of the tech bros, who, by the way, probably, apart from Peter Thiel, probably still like what Trump is up to because of his acts in AI, but the Maha group, the swing voters, the people who worry about Woke, that coalition probably does seem to have broken down. But the idea that this is over and over for Trump, well, he can still make decisions when it comes to foreign policy and that's probably what the next two years are going to be about it's he he's gonna he can still act in that domain and i think in a way he doesn't have i mean not sure what he had to lose but he he what is he bound by now he he doesn't does he Do you think he cares about who wins the next presidential election? I would hope so, but he might not. He might be like, well, I don't really care what happens next. I'm just going to do what I think is best for my legacy and for me. And so you might just see him maybe [43:14](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2594) sort of free. Now he doesn't have to worry about any midterms. He doesn't have to worry about the next election. He might feel liberated in a weird sort of way. I mean, is that a crazy thing to suggest? No, no. You know when you went like, oh, I don't care what you sort of, what anyone on things, and it's just about my legacy. I'm like, yeah, that's probably how he's always been in one sense. But one of the things that I think that nobody really addresses when it comes to politics, or certainly not as much as we should, is we can talk about policies, we can talk about stats, we can talk about data, but it's kind of like a band. You need a great front man. [43:51](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2631) And who is that front man going to be? Because a great front man can unite a political party. Think about, for instance, Tony Blair. United Labour drove them on and they became the political force of a generation. And he was a singular political talent. The same with Trump, by the way. Disagree, agree, it doesn't matter. He was a political force of nature. And one of the things that the Republicans are going to have to tackle now is who is going to lead them post-Trump. because that is going to be a very very difficult it's going to be incredibly difficult to follow somebody who has that sheer force of personality and i'm looking over at the democrats and look it's one speech and a week is a long time in politics but i was impressed with ossoff i really was a lot of the times you look at the democrats they seem to be kind of like outside who seems us to be deeply unpleasant all the democratic socialists of america are frankly a bunch of fruitcakes but this guy actually seemed to be one of the few people at the moment who's capable of grabbing the center and look a week is a long time other people are going to emerge but it's about for me the people the person at the front the person who can unify a party it's looking like [45:18](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2718) the democrats might have that possibly who is going to be that for the republicans well with with the democrats they also have james tallarico who uh interestingly went on rogan actually came across very well a lot of people felt uh went on diary ceo so he did podcasts where there's not necessarily uh natural alignment between their audience and him but he went in there and tried to persuade. There are other people within the Democrats. So I think, you know, falling in love with John Ossoff off the back of one speech. And look, prediction markets, I agree with you, Francis. Kalshi certainly seems to show that John Ossoff is the front runner by a long way. But I think we've got to keep in mind there's two years to go. And during those two years, a lot can change what's interesting on the republican side of this is as i mentioned ron desantis if you actually travel around the united states one of the things you see is the difference between desantis and perhaps other people within the republican party is florida is actually incredibly well run and so it's less about what he says and the bombastic nature of his presentation which is not i don't think doesn't come naturally to him it's just an incredibly [46:38](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2798) well-run state and that perhaps can can stand him in good stead although you know he told the i saw a clip of de santos uh talking about uh the last time when he ran against trump in the primaries and he said i had this voter come up to me i think he said in in i iowa somewhere like ohio maybe at the primaries, and he said to me, I think you're going to be the greatest president since Ronald Reagan. You are able to be that figure for our nation. And if Trump wasn't on the ballot, I'd vote for you. And so anyone who's run against a figure like Trump so far has faced that reality, which is he just inspires a love and adulation from a certain section of America that can't be beaten with anything, including being someone who's run the state incredibly well. [47:35](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2855) But it's very clear from his response to this election, the fact that obviously his term as governor of Florida is over, that he is going to be one of the people challenging for the presidency two years from now. And then, of course, you have J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. And the interesting thing to me, this is kind of going into the weeds, but I've always thought this was interesting. uh it was very clear from the outset that jd vance was against the iran war and i don't think it's remotely an accident that trump made him america's chief negotiator in the resolving that conflict because to me that is kind of a way of saying well you don't want to be involved in this but you will be tied to this and so jd vance has to simultaneously continue to signal to the portion of his electorate that he thinks is uh there and growing which is uh you know the the more isolationist wing of American politics, but at the same time, he may well find that the albatross of this conflict, however it's settled, is actually hanging not only around Trump's neck, but also around his own. And Marco Rubio, then he's got his own issues. It'll be fascinating to see how all of this plays out over the next couple of years. Gentlemen, shall we move on to the other [48:53](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=2933) story of this week, which was a bombshell announcement in the UK that Russell Brand has been found guilty of both rape and sexual assault. Tom, take it away. Yes, so he was found guilty at Suffolk Crown Court, one count of rape, three counts of sexual assault, some of these cases going back many decades. And it really draws to a close what has been a saga that's been going on over the past three years in terms of what the public have known about but in terms of anyone who might have been in and around russell brand in and around the comedy industry in and around the uh entertainment industry in britain a lot of these allegations or at least the uh the very bad smell around brand was a pretty open secret so in about 2023 there was this big investigation by both the times newspaper and the dispatches documentary it's worth pointing out that these um now guilty verdicts do not relate to any of the stories that were in that specifically this is actually people who have come forward since 2023 um who have lodged these um complaints and ultimately culminated in this conviction um but that was certainly something that set the ball rolling led more people to come forward led more people to reckon that they might actually get justice at this point i think everyone will [50:12](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3012) have noticed that there has been a striking reaction online which i think broadly speaking falls into two camps one of which is people asking as they asked after jimmy savile asked as they asked after various prolific sex offenders are exposed in the entertainment industry as to why this person was essentially allowed to operate for so long russell brand of course before he sort of glow up on the crank right was the darling of the guardian newspaper he guest edited the new statesman in 2013 he made huge waves in the 2015 election where he first said he didn't want people to vote then he backs ed milliband etc etc so there's been that aspect to the backlash and then there's also been this response from dare i say it the sort of newer fans of russell brand since he became kind of maga adjacent since he became uh more On the sort of conspiratorial, cranky fringe of politics, always been quite cranky, to be fair, but more on the right, shall we say, who are just like flatly refusing to believe that these convictions are sound, often, I dare say, about wanting to get into the details too much, without looking properly at the evidence, which I think was pretty clear. And no wonder the jury reached the verdicts that they did. But yeah, a huge, huge story. He's awaiting sentencing that will happen next week. He's been remanded in custody. [51:29](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3089) um and we uh wait to see what happens next but as is ever the case particularly when you're dealing with someone as culturally significant as russell brand it's also instantly become a factor in the cultural with people falling into broadly speaking one of those two tribes one of the interesting things with uh with brand is people always go well how did he get away with it and why do people continue to work with him in show business you know all aspects of show business, most people don't make that much money. They don't generate that much money. They don't generate that much money for their agencies. It's essentially just a pyramid with the people at the very top, probably the 1%, 0.5% generating the vast majority of the revenue. If you look at podcasting, it's pretty much the same. It's pretty much all aspects of show business and media. [52:20](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3140) And what Brand was exceptionally talented at was generating revenue, was galvanizing a fan base. He was somebody who was incredibly talented. He was very, very charming. He was somebody who people felt that they liked, they knew. And he got chance after chance after chance because he was good at what he did. He was very good at bringing listeners, for instance, to Radio 2, the BBC Radio 2. And when you have the BBC, which always has to justify, essentially, because it is a publicly funded service, it has to justify, you know, the service that it puts on and the fact that it spends public money. [53:08](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3188) They are always going to be looking for that talent that can do that. unfortunately for the BBC and for lots of outlets now there are going to be very serious questions put to them as to actually how much they knew about this particular individual how much they knew of his behavior what actually happened on their premises and also how do we move on from this and you're looking at the BBC right now and you're thinking to and they're probably thinking to themselves and other people are thinking as well how many scandals can this organization withstand well to your point about you know how much they knew the fact of the matter is that the fact that russell brand was a sexual predator was extremely well known in on the british comedy circuit and we know i think from some of the evidence and core that he his activities were known to the people around them. And of course, they would have been because of the way that he behaved. And so the fact of the matter is that there are lots and lots of people for the reasons that Francis articulated who turned a blind eye, and maybe we will discover even facilitated his behavior. And yeah, Tom, to your point about, you know, the split between the narratives here, [54:35](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3275) it's been quite amazing, because I tweeted yesterday, what I just said, which is it was extremely well known and people who don't understand british libel laws in america go why didn't you say something before well it's because in britain if you make an accusation of serious of a serious nature against somebody they will sue you for libel which by the way russell brand did and silenced people including one of his victims It's to the point where, to this day, she's legally not allowed to say anything to anybody about her claims. If you make an accusation against somebody, you then, if they sue you, you then have to go to court and prove in court that the allegation that you made is correct. [55:18](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3318) **Konstantin Kisin:** now if you're someone who knows this because a friend of yours um you know i i have a friend for example who was a victim of his and that's how i know but it's something very widely known [55:31](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3331) like on my facebook i have uh still have a lot of comedians that i'm friends well friends on facebook they're not huge fans of of uh of my evolution since we knew each other but nonetheless and you know i see lots of women going like of course we all knew and in fact female comedians in the uk have a whatsapp group in which they share things of this nature to warn fellow female comedians of potential risks and potential predators so this was something that was an open secret and that put a lot of people in a big dilemma as they saw it was never a dilemma for us russell brand invited me on his show many times i i never wanted to have anything to do with him because it was clear to me that all of this would inevitably happen and also it was just the wrong thing to do to associate myself with somebody about whom i knew this kind of thing but a lot of people were not in that position where they knew somebody who'd been affected or whatever and so and then and then the other thing on top of this is you had covid which just totally broke everybody's brain made everybody extra conspiratorial extra suspicious and one thing i will say is i do think there is some truth to the argument that people have made which is if [56:48](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3408) if brand had remained on the right side of the political tracks if he continued to do you know those beautiful pictures that have come out in the last day of him you know uh having his arm round Owen Jones, doing, you know, conversations with Ed Miliband, you know, being this sort of communist adjacent lovey. If that had continued, there's a possibility that he actually would have been allowed to get away with this for longer. I do think it's true that him being in such a focus when it comes to these allegations is partly about the fact that he changed his political allegiances and became troublesome to the establishment. But the fact that that is true does not mean that he was not guilty of the things of which he's now been found guilty. [57:34](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3454) And people need to be able to delineate those two things. Well, I'm going to take a position that's, I guess, in this context, controversial and likely going to be unpopular, and I invite you guys to push back against me if you think I'm misguided. But looking at this case, I am actually a bit, um i i have a sense that the there's a problem with the british judicial system and the british justice system and i i'll make my case i have never met russell brand i i'm not saying he is he by the way still refutes the allegations that he says it was always consensual all the evidence in the case was testimony there was not video evidence there was not forensic evidence i dna and so it seems to me it comes down to largely a he said she said with a again you can correct me if i'm wrong here but the jury were asked have they read the times expose in late uh this late summer 23 or watch the channel 4 expose and they hadn't but they would still have known about brand and i don't know how you could have missed this story and so you've got a situation that this guy with allegations from 20 odd years ago which are testimony and even the testimony it's like I think one of the victims said she had initially said didn't think there was much of a story when [59:08](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3548) she was approached by either Times or Channel 4. Now, I'm not saying that Brand is innocent. I don't know. The courts obviously found him guilty. As you'll know that his lawyer on the way out said to the Times journalist, you fucked it. And the reason I think if I'm trying to understand why he said that is because that they the channel 4 or the times they put that out in the public before putting it to the police with once it's in the police you can't put it out you can't do it because you have contempt of court right so you can't then do the thing so they did it before and then it went to to the police so that's just in the wrong order and what frustrates me, and this is why I'm actually frustrated, is because we have had in our country since the Second World War, the most horrific series of group charge sexual exploitation known euphemistically as the grooming gang scandal. And there are plenty of examples where young girls who went with forensic evidence there was one girl in in 2013 i think it was no earlier 2008 she went to the police gave her underwear in which had the dna of the victim they arrested two men and then the cps decided not to press charges who was head of the cps at that time it uh who was the chief [1:00:42](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3642) public prosecutor. It was Keir Starmer. So we're in a country where, as shown with Russell Brand, [1:00:49](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3649) **Winston Marshall:** if the establishment want to put people away for these sort of crimes, they have shown that they can. But when the narrative is wrong, when the victim is inconvenient for the establishment [1:01:02](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3662) narrative, they haven't done. And so for me, it's another sense. Again, I'm not saying that Brand is innocent i'm saying that here we have the establishment showing that if they want to act they will but the frustration is those on the other side when it happens the other side not only are these victims is there no justice for these victims but we elect to be prime minister the person who throws it out so for me there's a sense that like it's a sense of something's not quite right. And I just add that Hugh Edwards at the BBC, who had indecent images of children on his phone, he got a suspended sentence. [1:01:50](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3710) Brand, there's a way this goes, this happens, where he's going to spend the rest of his adult life behind bars. That's actually a scenario. Now, it might be the case that this is justice working and maybe he was you know the the man they found to be guilty for for good reason and and this is justice being served i'm i'm saying i don't i don't know but this is not as clear-cut a case but why are you saying you don't know i don't understand why are you saying you don't know when he's just been found guilty because if you look at the look i've read some of the transcripts it's like horrifying i'm saying i'm not in any way excusing it but if you look at what evidence it was it was it was not forensic or video so it's it's women saying things fine do you think jimmy savile was a pedophile uh i do i do think that never found guilty never found guilty there's no evidence no forensic evidence and it is also worth saying that if we were talking about with with the example of the grooming gangs as well and you're right to bring it up winston because the uh the lack of concern about the industrial All-scale rape of the most vulnerable girls in society, the complete memory-holing of that, ignoring that, it makes it so hard to stomach when you suddenly have the believe the victim crowd pop up in relation to this case. You're absolutely right about that. [1:03:15](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3795) The difficulty is that if we were going to go down this line of like we are going to question the soundness of a conviction unless there's kind of video or DNA evidence or what have you, then that would imply that it would be illegitimate or unsound to say pursue historic grooming gang cases as well. And there's many cases like this which do not really come down to the fact that there are clear cut witnesses, really do not come down to the fact that there's CCTV that can be accessed. That doesn't mean that someone can't be convicted, of course. And also, if we're looking at this case in particular, woman five, as she's referred to in a lot of the reporting, who the complaint of rape against Brand is the one that he's been found guilty of. [1:03:52](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3832) There is, in terms of the witness testimony, there is quite a lot of it. I think there were eight individuals who said that she told them about this encounter immediately after it had happened. Back in 2009, there was also a nurse at a sexual health clinic who says that she came in because she was concerned that she had contracted some sort of venereal disease from Bram because, unbeknownst to her, he had taken the condom off as well during the rape that he's now been found guilty of, and that she had told her what had happened at the time as well. so in terms of even though this is uh testimony um this is still evidence under our system of course and there i suppose there's a there is a fair bit more of it than some people not saying you went sort of been letting on you know even though the uh as you said there's nothing as definitive as cccv or dna or what have you but if we are to hold by the standard that we're questioning those convictions unless we have the smoking gun as it were then even going after historic grooming gang cases would therefore be questionable and illegitimate i suppose I just want to reiterate I am not doubting that he was a philanderer I am not doubting that he [1:04:55](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3895) was a dastard he even said he was I it look it doesn't sound it doesn't sound good but I'm saying that there's some things that happened in this case that for jurisprudence sake are like a bit weird and i'm also saying that there's a i'm frustrated to if this is justice been served great but i'm frustrated when we have such horrific failures in our justice system to see that when they bloody want to they can actually they can actually serve justice and that that's my that's my um take i i uh seeing the what i did see the transcripts it's it's not pretty stuff i I'm not, just to reiterate, I'm not, I don't feel like I'm in a position, I'm certainly not in a position, I'm certainly not rather defending it. [1:05:46](https://realalpha.app/v/RplVpJh7uEE/?t=3946) I'm sort of making a different point. All right. Well, on that happy note, that is it for Off the Fence this week, and we will see you back here next week. Take care and see you soon.