AI could make local production and human-made work more valuable

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 2:37:58

   And I think about to become even more unique. In which ways? With AI. Yeah. I think the way AI is going to transform society is going to be unlike anything that's ever happened before. How do you think it's going to transform society? Well, I think jobs are going to be eliminated. That's a big one. Eliminated? Eliminated. I think there's going to be no use for people for a lot of things that people do right now.

2. 2:38:21

   What time scale are we talking? Ten years maximum. Maximum? Yeah, maximum. In ten years, the world's going to be unrecognizable. That's what I think. So how do you feel? You think this will happen? You think we're on that course already? Yes. And that all jobs will be subsumed? No, not all jobs. I think creative endeavors are always going to exist. There's always going to be human beings are always going to have the need for human connection.

3. 2:38:50

   We're always going to want to see live sports. We're always going to want to see live music. Live comedy is always going to exist. I think going to the movies is a great sort of a community experience. I used to love going to comedy movies. Comedy movies when they used to make them. Oh, yeah. Because it was fucking. Garbage. Woke, killed comedy movies. Yeah. We used to be able to go and you're laughing really hard with a whole group of people that you don't know.

4. 2:39:15

   Just like going to a comedy club. It's very similar in a lot of ways. I was telling my wife about your comedy club and I said, it's the closest thing to 1996 that I can get to. And she's like, well, what are you talking about? I'm like, well, you lock your phone away. You go in there. There's no worry about someone's recording something. People get to go on stage and talk shit. And you're just, you just feel like you're back in a place.

5. 2:39:37

   Like no one's sitting there scrolling. I hate watching like people at dinner and both of them are scrolling their phones and you don't see any of that. And it's just shit talking and fun. And you're with your buddies and you're laughing and it's just a great experience. And so I have a theory about AI with when it comes to what you just talked about. So I think we're in agreement in at least one thing.

6. 2:39:59

   And I think what's going to I think what's going to happen is if you look at like the number one movie in 2020 or 2019 was like Avengers Endgame or Avengers Infinity War. Those two movies highly digitized tons of CGI. Everything's getting done in front of a green screen. And it made, you know, two billion dollars or over a billion. I don't remember exactly what the number was. And then you look at this last year, and the biggest movie per dollar spent was Obsession, which was made by a YouTube creator who was doing stuff out of his basement a few years earlier.

7. 2:40:32

   So I think to your point about people wanting genuine human interaction, my theory as it pertains to AI is AI will become ubiquitous in certain ways. It will eventually, fortunately or unfortunately, run massive parts of the economy. It will run a lot of things. But what will happen with people will get sick. And in a few years, your daughters are going to be able to send you an Avengers movie where it's you, Ari, Shane.

8. 2:41:04

   Right now they can do that. Well, I'm saying like with a prompt, they'll make a two-hour movie and it'll just be the Avengers movie. And it will look indistinguishable from another movie. And you'll get sick of that quick. and then people i think things like regional theater houses my wife and i's favorite thing to do is go to the nutcracker at christmas time in dc at the national theater those things will start springing up and they'll be easier to spring up because to start a business to start an llc if you have a novel idea you're looking at 30 to 100 thousand dollars of negotiating red tape and government in order to start a business ai is going to make that super easy and i think in a few years we're going to see theaters. I think we're going to see, I agree with Elon in that prices are going to get way cheaper to make something production scale wise. Amazon's

9. 2:41:54

   going to be, you'll be able to buy a coffee table for a dollar or two dollars, three dollars. I think there will be a large deflationary effect where products are going to get cheaper and the quality of life will go up because more people will be able to buy cheaper things. And if you're living on $10,000 a year, you're going to be able to live really well in the coming years because of AI. But because people will be able to set up businesses easier, like craft tables, handmade things, people setting up businesses, it will allow a rejuvenation of creative endeavors and people with money or people who are making money in the middle income and above, middle class income and above, will yearn for handmade things. And because it's so easy to start these businesses, we're going to, it's the same thing with people who have money

10. 2:42:39

    now. All my friends who have money now have classic cars. A lot of them have lots of classic cars. They have handmade things, handmade furniture, all of these things. I think the market is going to get flooded because people are going to be so sick of highly stylized AI making thing everything look awesome i think it's much more likely that in 10 years if you and your wife and myself and my wife are going to go out we're going to go to a regional theater house and watch hamlet or some play or something like that yes that will start with people with more money but as more theater houses pop up and more creative endeavors i think people are going to be able to get creatively back into things and ai in my estimation will exist as like a utility in your house. They're trying to not do that in ways that we've talked about, but a good output for AI is

11. 2:43:24

    it becomes a water heater in your house. You have your own personal GPU that you do your own training or your own things on, or it does your bills for you. It takes care of the doldrums of life and it can do all of these things for you. It's ran locally. It's not something that you go to OpenAI for or you go to a large company, name your large AI company, a good output from AI would be we have these open-weighted systems that are available to everyone. You buy your GPUs. It goes in your basement. Your data never leaves your home. You're not out training some other company's AI. It all gets done regionally, and it handles your bills for you. It does your bank account. It does all That's a very rose-colored glasses view.

12. 2:44:04

    It is. It is. But I see where the human thing, like human-created stuff, is going to be more valuable. That's the best possible, best-case scenario. And people will be able to afford things. If you're not making a lot of money and you don't have a lot of economic output, you're going to be able to live very well, I think. Well, we'll see if we don't get killed by the robots. We'll see if we don't get killed by the robots.