Altman plans forward from a few beliefs about the future

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 20:34

   is kind of like long-term thinking and yet it also seems like things are moving so quickly and the world is changing so fast that planning 20 years out and then like looking backwards i don't even know if that makes sense um how do you think about this how is like is your time horizon shortening i i actually don't try to plan backwards i try to have like a a small number of strongly held convictions about the future that are like directions to head towards but then i try to like plan forwards from the current state about like what can we do now what can we do this year and sometimes you do have to like plan a few things on a you know five or ten year horizon but i try to plan forward guided to a small number of beliefs about the future i think there are a lot of people who have way too many beliefs about the future and a kind of rigid worldview that they try

2. 21:21

   to fit and then but what happens is they end up like chasing you know you see like space companies turn into ai companies or whatever um and like having just a small number of things that you deeply believe about the future and being very flexible on the rest um and staying very true to the core is is helpful one of the people that i know the best his top you know company core value is just critical path and just focusing on the critical path and like staying focused on the key drivers of whatever the biggest roadblock is just unfuck that and then go to the next one and do that again how do you think about critical path in your own life when you're kind of like trying to make these decisions i mean for so long now i have felt focused on this singular goal of abundant intelligence and a belief that like incredible human prosperity will come from that

3. 22:08

   as long as we don't have a weird power concentration and kind of a new kind of authoritarianism it has been fairly clear to me at any given time what's on the critical path to get there and i have not been tempted by you know should i reconsider the goal or should i think about these other things i have been thinking about that a little bit more recently of like okay if we really are close to super intelligence what's next but but it's this that's kind of how i i subjectively feel we are close is the first time in like more than a decade i've thought about what is the next thing and is it the ranch uh i mean eventually there might be a few more things on the way but that is yes that is the eventual plan if you had to like try to guess what else does sam want to accomplish before he ranches um look ai super intelligence is gonna get built

4. 22:57

   like that you know not done but like gonna we are we are on the glide path to the get there is um abundance and decentralization and like wide access to it and making sure that it ends up with like broadly shared prosperity i'd really like to accomplish that so maybe that that's the thing that i've been like thinking about as the next thing like how does technologically we're going to accomplish our mission i think a lot of our worldview and a lot of our beliefs about safety and the impact it's going to have have also we've gotten those things done too um but you know very broadly shared prosperity and uh a real focus on enabling the world here um that seems very important i've heard you say again and again uh this idea of get on planes in marginal situations.

5. 23:43

   I've done this a huge number of times. How's it worked out for you? So far it's working pretty well. Good.