Anthropic has not defined its reported run rate

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 27:23

   post training you cannot stop i mean we're gonna see the number do you think these ipos are not gonna happen they're gonna fail i think make a specific prediction oh man i guess the thing is things are so wacky because anthropic was like we've confidentially as they announced it filed a night for right for rs1 but we're not going to say when we're doing it open ai the journal reported a few weeks because it's burp gen uh was like oh they're going to file soon but they haven't yet i think that there is going to be a reaction based on the spacex ipo if it rips open ai lists if it doesn't open ai slow rolls but also i could see sam altman getting real mad I and saying, I've got to get this, screaming at Sarah Fryer.

2. 28:04

   Right. I mean, to be clear, I think the SpaceX IPO to me is uniquely worrying. It's a dog. To me, it's like the problem with SpaceX is it has failed to be the AI company it wants to be. And the space company has a limited ups. You know, there's just like you can value the space business and it doesn't reach, you know, $2 trillion. dollars um but so where we differ is well i don't know what the correct price of open ai and anthropic is um i mean but that's it's not my job you know it is not to pull the bloomberg but it is sort of the business of investors to speculate about the price and make bets and have sort of this competitive dynamic and that is ultimately what sets prices so i think whoever goes public out of anthropic and open ai stops the other one i think you think it's so bad i think oh i'm

3. 28:51

   confident open ai's is really bad very confident and i think that like the numbers will appear and it's like this is so abysmal i think that the losses for open ai are gonna look like a dog's asshole on thanksgiving i think that i don't know about anthropic but the fact that dario amaday i have to give him credit he is one of the best media manipulators in history he's better than jobs he just he knows how to do the financial stuff with the annualized revenue he's so good it it but you complain about this a lot annualized revenue isn't is useful to convey if your revenue is growing it's not useful for something like api calls though those are not monthly recurring expenses they are there was some numb nuts who spent 500 million dollars on clawed in uh april I think it was reported by Matty Mills over Axios.

4. 29:41

   Your point of view, right? So if I report my ARR this month and then I have a problem next month, I'm going to be screwed if that number comes out because I'm going to go from a great number to a bad number. So you've been complaining about the ARR over and over and over again, but the revenue keeps going up. The problem with using ARR is that the chickens can come home to ROOST. The problem with ARR is not that they can come home.

5. 30:08

   Moments that you can manipulate it in any which way you like. Anthropic has never defined what they mean by run rate. Not once. And I've read every single story. The information, I think, Sree, Sree, over there, reported that they do it by taking the day's subscriptions, like the monthly subscriptions they have times 12, then their API revenue for the last four weeks times 13. API revenue is a really weird one to do on a recurring basis because that is going to flow.

6. 30:34

   And as you see these cost cuts happening, yeah, that's coming down. so it's just like revenue is how you should report revenue and you should all of also all of these things are non-gap it's the non-gapiest non-gap that's ever non-gapped and it's frustrating because they share the run rate so that it's a really simple manipulative trick you meant to go oh 47 billion dollars of run rate that's how much they made this if they made 47 billion dollars that it's meant it is but these are i mean they're sophisticated investors doing it right i mean what i'm sorry mate no i'm just saying like to a regular person the idea that it's like forward looking revenue might seem unusual but investors are very aware of what like 2025 revenue is versus like taking are they yes i mean are they getting audited financials or are they getting a powerpoint

7. 31:27

   deck that they do in the elizabeth home ceo voice shows good look at this do you think the books are cooked i don't think the books are cooked i think that at the end of every presentation is like the like a font size three series of disclosures that are like on a non-gap basis yeah if they even show i mean they're gonna go public so they will have to reveal gap financials i cannot wait because my god would it be nice to to stop having no i i don't mean this one but you know what i mean it's constantly defending this but here's the thing what you have I've been saying that we are in a bubble since at least 2024, right? I mean, what have you gotten wrong?