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Moonshots · 4 min · Oct 24, 2024

Automation will displace jobs before creating new kinds of work

Ray Kurzweil expects rapid disruption as AI takes on routine work, but argues past automation created more jobs in new fields. He expects some form of basic income in the 2030s to help people transition.

RK

Ray Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil is an inventor, AI researcher and futurist.

  • Peter Diamandis, Host · Founder & executive chairman, XPRIZE Foundation

    Co-founded Singularity University and founded Zero-G; co-wrote the books Abundance and Bold.

About this segment

Ray Kurzweil expects rapid disruption as AI takes on routine work, but argues past automation created more jobs in new fields. He expects some form of basic income in the 2030s to help people transition.

From “The Man Who Predicted AGI Decades Ago w/ Ray Kurzweil | EP #125”, Oct 24, 2024. Watch the full episode

Answers “Which jobs will AI replace, and which are safe?” See all 33 answers

Answers “What will AI look like in the next few years?” See all 74 answers

“So, we're going to have new types of jobs, things that we can't even imagine today.”
RKRay Kurzweilat 30:00 · Moonshots30:00

Takeaways

  1. Routine work is likely to be automated quickly.
  2. He compares future job shifts with farming's decline.
  3. Kurzweil expects basic income to arrive in the 2030s.

In this episode

Full episode
  1. 20:00Computing power keeps accelerating across hardware and software4:32

  2. 27:02Automation will displace jobs before creating new kinds of work4:18

  3. 42:50Kurzweil expects longevity escape velocity around 20325:41Up next
  4. 5 more moments in the full episode

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

  1. 27:07

    to our episode. So I'd like to turn the conversation to a couple of questions that have been on a lot of people's minds. And I want to put them to bed because it causes fear and excitement. The first is concerns of job loss. And I think you and I have both been consistent. on our positions here, but do you see significant job loss in 2025, 26, 27 as a result of humanoid robots, AI-driven humanoid robots coming online and large language models entering this field?

  2. 27:49

    Well, I mean, we have to consider what jobs, what value we get out of jobs. And if it's actually to explore new areas, find out new things that we didn't know before, that's very exciting. That's what I've tried to do in my life. And I can actually do that more if I actually have more intelligence. I mean, I have a certain amount of intelligence, but it's limited. I'll have a lot more if I can actually merge with the intelligence that we're creating.

  3. 28:32

    being but people are very eager to retire because they don't really don't like their jobs the jobs is we've got a bunch of tables that have been used we have to clean it up that's not the kind of jobs or the bathroom yeah these people are these people get jobs because it's what they need to put food on the table for their kids or get insurance it's not what they dreamed of doing as a kid and that kind of jobs we're going to be able to do for ourselves now that's going to lead to some kind of dislocation um for example uh large language models can code already they're not quite the same level as a professional coder but they're going to get there pretty soon, so we're going to have to relearn how to apply our new intelligence to create new kinds of capabilities. That'll be very good. That's what we've done anyway.

  4. 29:38

    80% of people worked in food production 200 years ago. Farmers, yes. 2%. So we've lost all those jobs, and yet we have actually more people working. People say, well, don't worry about losing your job. You'll become a social media influencer. And no one would know what you're talking about. So, we're going to have new types of jobs, things that we can't even imagine today. So, there's going to be problems with figuring this out, and it's going to go very, very quickly. But ultimately, we'll be happier for it.

  5. 30:27

    I think we will give people money so they can manage while they're reconsidering what kind of work they will be able to do. Do you think UBI will come online, universal basic income? Yes, I think in the 2030s. Would that come? I've heard Jeff Bezos talk about we're going to tax the robots and the AIs that take the jobs, and then we'll use the income from that as the tax base to then provide UBI. Well, people have different ideas.

  6. 31:00

    I'm not sure we'll follow anybody's ideas, but we'll figure that out. I mean, we'll have to do that. People won't have money to buy products. You know, another question along these lines is,