Blankfein sees a supportive backdrop for risk assets

Transcript

From the transcript How I Invest publishes with the episode.

1. 31:19

   Let's talk about kind of, again, your perspective on just big picture markets and business. What has changed over the past decades, and then and what's different about the market today? And how then do you look at the next twelve to eighteen months? What is gonna be the primary driver of what really changes the markets? Here is nothing ever I mean, history, you know, this is where it rhymes, but really rhymes.

2. 31:47

   We're going through cycles now, and you can't turn on you can't watch pundits on TV without somebody saying, is this 1999 or 1996? You know, we've seen through these cycles, you know, one of the advantages of, not many advantages of being older, but one of the advantages, you have actually lived through these things. Now you can read about it in history books, but it's not quite as vivid. And when you live to these, you know, elevations and crashes and stuff, it's like the difference between living in a war or reading about the war.

3. 32:19

   I'd say it's cyclical with and it's changes. And why is it different this time? And, you know, it's very funny. You turned on, you listened to the punditry, and nobody's talking about this other than to describe the differences between the spend today versus the .com era. People were making money, they weren't making money then, you know, and and making those analogies. And, you know, I find myself thinking about that too.

4. 32:43

   Not to overcomplicate things. But if you ask me about the market for the next period, there's a lot of exogenous events. The market, nobody really knows things. You have to, you know, that's why they call it speculating. I don't know what's going to happen next, but with what I know, we're in a growthy market, things are going relatively well on the cusp of great technological innovation that can make things more efficient.

5. 33:09

   It may take time, it may be spending too much or maybe not spending too much. But in this moment, when things are going pretty well, and I know if you're talking to a big group, you have to say there are a lot of people who are suffering, but in a macro sense, the economy is going pretty well. There's essentially full employment. And into this market, we're about to go we're about to go through tremendous monetary market stimulation because we're gonna take interest rates down, and whether we take them down in the next three cycles or we skip one, rates are coming down.

6. 33:41

   And we're about to go through a fiscal stimulus because all the all the stuff that's coming in with the last bill hasn't hit yet, but has gone. That spending is gonna hit. So I would say your starting position is that the next period going forward is gonna be very friendly to risk assets. Having said that, they don't give you know, they don't blow a horn when sentiment shifts. So you'd have to be cagey, but I would say your baseline position is that things are that were that things are going well, what could go wrong, not like you know?

7. 34:15

   And and that's how you have to start out. That's how you have to look at it. I I would say you start from a position of optimism and then worry about what could go wrong. Well, I'm getting some hints that we are running out of time.