Compute efficiency is central to Anthropic’s path to profit

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 16:39

   In 2025 Q1, it was $0.40 per dollar, right? So they were losing money on every dollar of compute. Today, it is $2.08. That's wild to be able to reverse that the way that they have. I mean, obviously, that's the cloud code and cloud co-work effect. It is. It's also, it's interesting, you know, there's been so much talk or a lot of talk, you know, with the data center build out and the enormous amount of money that's gone toward it and gone toward energy, towards data centers.

2. 17:06

   You know, what if data centers become just so much more efficient, not incrementally, but become so much more efficient that we, or GPUs do, that we don't need all the stuff or if the models do. And, you know, for Anthropic, that's a big bull case for them going forward, right? That this is all going to become so much more efficient, which means that their spend is going to get to go way down. This is a percentage, right?

3. 17:31

   Obviously, their spend will continue to go up as more people use it and there's more prompts, et cetera, et cetera. But if these models become much more efficient and don't need to use as much, that's their big problem, right? Is their spend side. It's not the revenue side. It's the spend side. The efficiency is kind of the ballgame for them. And if they can point to increased efficiency going forward, that's going to make these actually viable businesses, which right now they are still unprofitable.

4. 17:56

   And again, Anthropic isn't just going public because it wants headlines. Anthropics is going public because it needs money. Yeah. Although, let me read you this from Semi Analysis. I want to get your reaction to this one in terms of cash on hand. Semi Analysis pointed this out. As of June 30th, 2026, we have raised an aggregate of $141 billion of capital and cash and cash equivalents of $112 billion in short-term investments.

5. 18:22

   Oh, and had cash and cash equivalents of $112 billion and short-term investments of $19.3 billion. So that means what SemiAnalysis is reading there is that they've only burned $9.7 billion of that. And they also had a couple of profitable quarters. What do you read on that front? I would have to look at those numbers, which I hadn't. So assuming that. Yeah, go ahead. They are committing the money.

6. 18:43

   They are committing the money. Well, they've got huge contracts, obviously, going forward, huge spend contracts going forward. That's interesting if they've got that much cash on hand. But they are still, they might have had a couple of profitable quarters in there. They are still unprofitable as a whole and are expecting to spend money. One thing that they're going to spend money on, and they've started doing this, OpenAI's done it more than them, is probably going to be acquisitions, right?

7. 19:04

   As I said, for a company like Anthropic to be more than the utility, they're going to have to build stuff on top of it. And they are. They're building a lot of stuff in-house. They're also going to buy a lot of that. And you could do that via stock. It's one of the good things about going public. You now have a public currency to trade. They're going to use a lot of cash to buy stuff. And they're going to need cash to buy stuff.

8. 19:21

   Yeah.