Factories offer a simpler first market than homes

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 1:23:07

   Wow. Nothing changes. Where is this going to go first? Consumers, businesses? You'll ship into businesses first. It's the engineering complexity that we have to ship is, like, proportional to the variability that we see on site. so um the veritability at homes is like extremely high it's like it's my home is chaos like kids are just like just dismantling the house it's like it's basically in real time uh and then there's just like food or they're eating snacks toys like it's just like it's just chaos and then like you know if we go to your house and my house we probably have like different appliances or different toasters and different microwaves all a little different everywhere we go so the home is just like this, like tons of entropy, like tons of veritability, a wide distribution of tasks.

2. 1:23:53

   It's like the, it's like the ultimate like challenge for robotics in the home. It's like the hardest, most variable thing we got, we got going. And in the workforce, it's like, you have this like work cell that you're doing. So like, if you're doing like manufacturing logistics or, you know, a lot of tasks, you have like this area you're doing work in and you can basically kind of write down on a piece of paper how to do every step. In the home, you can't do that. You can't write down a piece of paper. I can't write down a piece of paper how I'm going to interact with your house. I mean, you've seen it. But the next assembly line or the next conveyor system, it's like, I kind of know what to do. It's like, I get the package, I flip it down and I need to do it every three seconds. You kind of have a good understanding of what to go do.

3. 1:24:33

   So it just makes it easier. It's like the analogy would be like highway driving for autonomous vehicles that's just happened sooner because the veritability is lower than in the city gotcha um so it'll happen first to scale and then the industrial thing has a good good thing where it's like you kind of have your own work area so the safety areas are not as high the hardest thing in the home will be uh once you figure out how to get performance there meaning it's capable of doing everything in the home like so you can go to your home and do everything the longest pull from there is going to be safety where like me and you feel safe like being like having this here with our kids and that is um that that's going to be the hardest challenge by far and um that's gonna take some time it's a very there's some trust that needs to build there's a tracker that needs to

4. 1:25:20

   be built there's like system safety engineering that needs to be done extremely well um so that just and then the home like you can charge like 10x you can charge like 10x more in the commercial market than you can the home home needs like 500 bucks a month your carly's and those will be you think those will be around 500 bucks a month yeah i think it'll be like that level like you know that like order of like more magnitude yeah um yeah so i think um and then the commercial workforce you can charge like 10 times more um so like so it's just like the commercial and then In the commercial market for humanoids, half of GDP is human labor, maybe a little under half.

5. 1:26:03

   So it's like 3 billion humans in the workforce contributes to 40-something percent of GDP. So you're talking about the largest market in the world is sitting in the commercial workforce. So you have that, plus the variability is lower, plus you can charge 10 times more. it's like the like for investors are like dude why would you ever work why would you ever do homework You know what I mean? Like, why would you like spend time over here when you can just go over here and build like a $20 trillion company?

6. 1:26:32

   And my answer for that is just like, I just want robots in the home. So don't really care. You know, like we got to make that work. Yeah. I mean, you say in 10 years, every home will have a humanoid. I don't have every home in 10 years, but we will have- Pretty close. We will have in 10 years, you have like two long poles. You have like a long pole with manufacturing enough volumes for this. And then you have a long pole where you can actually technically do the work fully end to end.

7. 1:27:10

   My belief is that the hardest thing in the stack is not manufacturing. The hardest thing in the stack is, sorry, the hardest hill right now is can you put a robot into your home today and do the five hours of work you need without ever seeing your home before. The first group to do that, I think will become like the largest company in the world. And you can do that with maybe a hundred robots. No shit.

8. 1:27:40

   Yeah, I think you can solve a general purpose humanoid robot.