Kurzweil expects longevity escape velocity by 2032

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 36:30

   To me that I'm very interested in is being able to longevity escape velocity where a year goes by, you age a year, but you get back that year from advances in medicine that keep you going for another year or more than a year. so that you don't actually age during that year. You lose a year, but you'll actually get it back from advances in medicine and so on. What's your current prediction when we hit escape velocity?

2. 37:13

   2032. 2032. Yeah, let's jump into that subject of common interest, I think, to all of us. And Ray, you and I have had so many conversations about this concept of longevity, which was a very controversial subject a decade ago. And Now, you know, AI is impacting biology and making it happen. When we've talked about reaching longevity, escape velocity in the past, the technology that I believe you said is required to really get us there is nanotechnology.

3. 37:47

   Do you think that we're going to reach LEV without nanotechnology, just based upon drug discovery using AI? It really has nothing to do with nanotechnology. Nanotechnology is a way for us to take advantage of AI without it being obvious so that I can be thinking about something. I'll get an idea, and I won't know if it's coming from a biological brain or the computational brain. That has to do with nanotechnology.

4. 38:19

   But longevity escape velocity has to do with advances in medicine. It has to do with being able to simulate what happens in medicine, and it really has nothing to do with nanotechnology. We have to be able to create biological models of what happens in biology very quickly so that in one weekend you can simulate millions or billions of different possibilities and try them out, test them, and then be able to go forward with a cure based on that type of analysis.

5. 39:05

   And talking to people who are working on this, five years is like an outside limit. So if we can actually do it in five years, then another couple of years to basically go through most of the medical problems we have. So your advice to people is stay healthy until we get to the early 2030s. Yes, exactly, exactly. Just curious to drill in one level deeper since, you know, Peter, you're also a top expert on this topic.

6. 39:37

   If you had a perfect simulation, you know exactly what's going on in a body. You've got it all nailed through computation. And that's, you know, about three, four, five years from now. Then what's the intervention if not nanotechnology? like is it just more and more targeted chemicals in your bloodstream or like how do you act on that simulation i mean you're coming up with new cures new treatments both ward off as well as avoid getting these types of treatments like cancer, for example.

7. 40:07

   And you can see it already happening. I mean, right now, I've seen this many times. Somebody gets some problem today and says, well, just wait a few months and there'll be some new cure for it. And sure enough, that happens in most cases. I can think of four or five cases where it's been really vital and it's happened. So it's happening much more quickly. I think that applies to cancer, heart disease, hip replacements, knee replacements, all those things fit that mold.

8. 40:48

   But then you've got this just general aging. you know because stretching out your life reversal right yeah yeah exactly like that take heart disease so rapatha is a new type of drug that dramatically reduces your ldl so i've reduced my ldl to like 10 which is a very low number yep and i've actually examined my arteries and i have no plaque. Now that wasn't true like four or five years ago, or even three or four years ago.

9. 41:22

   So in various areas, I'm developing things that are avoiding getting problems that didn't exist just a short while ago. That's a good example of chemical in your bloodstream, you know, the traditional, it's a new drug, a new chemical that's in your bloodstream. And so there is a