Mars must build the means to sustain its own civilization

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 40:17

   to mars and uh will they self-sustaining city on mars the i i do think that uh that there is a fork in the road of human destiny where if we can establish a self-sustaining city on mars with the the key test being if the resupply shifts from earth stop coming for any reason does mars continue to to prosper or does it die out at the point at which mars is able to prosper and grow on its own the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on earth you know there's there's always some possibility of self-annihilation on earth with the world war three or or super virus or um or or a meteor like extinct but you know that destroyed the dinosaurs we know from the fossil record that there have been many mass mass extinction events so uh the question that i sort

2. 41:16

   of i'm always wondering about is will civilization in will the civilizational arc continue to ascend such that we can make mars self-sustaining before the civil civilizational arc descends because the the window of opportunity to make life multi-planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of earth yeah ilan let's assume that we get there and you're there, you know, you'd be the elder statesman, you'd have the moral authority of Mars.

3. 41:51

   How do you run Mars? But there's a point that I think I want to just emphasize again that it's more important than the form of governance on Mars or who's there in the early days. What really matters is that Mars is self-sustaining, that we are truly a multi-planet species, and such that we've achieved planetary redundancy. And obviously, we should do everything possible to make sure life on Earth is great, but there's always some risk of an annihilation event on Earth.

4. 42:33

   Like I said, self-annihilation or some natural disaster. and uh and so the the probable lifespan of consciousness increases dramatically as soon as uh as soon as we are multi-planet species with the key test being can mars survive if the resupply ships stop coming so it's so getting like the first missions to mars are not that important the what matters is can you get sufficient tonnage tonnage to mars such that that Mars can prosper on its own.

5. 43:04

   And that means it has to have all of the ingredients of civilization. It's not just that you need to build, for example, a chip factory on Mars or ship fab on Mars, but you need the ability to build chip fabs. Do you have a sense of the time scale? Like, let's assume Starship is out of state starting in, you know, 2026, then there's gonna be a bunch of testing, obviously. There's gonna be a bunch of early testing.

6. 43:26

   We only have certain launch windows. So there's a bunch of time constraints. Is this a 50-year thing in your mind? Is it a 150-year thing? Is it something that is for our generation? Or is it our children's generation? Where do you see that point if it's optimally possible? You know, if things go and break our way. I think it can be done in 30 years. Wow. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years.

7. 44:00

   So every two years, the planets align and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10 to 15-ish Mars transfer windows, if you're seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each MOS transfer window, then it should be possible to make MOS self-sustaining in about, quote, roughly 25 years. Amazing. That's incredible. All right, ladies and gentlemen, Elon Musk.

8. 44:38

   We'll see you when we're back in town. We miss you.