NASA sees a path to four people on Mars within 15 years

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 54:22

   back to the episode. Jared, let's talk about getting to Mars. So Elon is very aggressively committed to going to Mars. And, you know, I was there with him when he was having the conversation and he basically said, we're going to shut down Falcon 9 because it's not going to get us to Mars and we're going after Starship all in, you know, burning the boats, as you said. So the question is, when he decides to make those missions, is that funding from that fully private, or do you imagine you're going to be able to step in and help fund those private missions?

2. 54:57

   And what's a timeline? When do you think the earliest? We'll set boots on Mars, you know, optimist boots and then human boots. What's what's your what's your under over on that? Well, I think, you know, again, I'm pretty excited about the the the TAM that, you know, that SpaceX and others are pursuing right now with orbital data centers and such, because, again, I don't you know, you saw the. Here's an interesting stat.

3. 55:21

   Actually, it's on a Fox interview and somebody started bringing up polling and I was like, oh, man, I'm way out of my depth on this one. They were like, did you know that 69% of the American public supports NASA returning to the moon in contrast to 30 some odd percent in 1967 at a comparable time period? And sorry, anyway, on that note, I think that SpaceX right now, if they were to put all of their capital and focus on going to Mars, it would be very different time frame than right now where their state intention is going to the moon.

4. 56:03

   So when you ask the question of like, look, we're going back, Boots will be on the moon in 2028. We're going to build the base and learn from that environment. And SpaceX pursuing this mega TAM that allows them to make investments and capabilities for the good of all humankind, which is probably, again, why it's 69% approval rate versus in the 1960s when it was 4.5% of the discretionary budget. And I'm sure that was a big factor in why we were in the 30% range for going to the moon.

5. 56:30

   because, hey, we've got a lot of other problems back here on Earth. So good companies like SpaceX that are pursuing these massive TAMs and all this economic potential in space allows them to make investments alongside NASA to do all these great things for humankind is probably why you generally have greater public support for what we're pursuing. But the fact that Moon is step one for them right now, or at least stated intent, is certainly going to change some of the timelines on Mars and absolutely would change the quantity of people we're talking about on Mars.

6. 56:56

   So we can make investments in nuclear power and propulsion. It's part of the national space policy. It is the next giant leap. And potentially put a pathway with the fewest miracles required to, I don't know, put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years. That's not, obviously, the Elon vision of millions of people someday in a self-sustaining city on Mars, but NASA can do some things governmentally through taxpayer funding, leveraging nuclear investments over many decades, plus industry coming alongside it.

7. 57:30

   SpaceX saying, forget the moon, we're going all in, like Elon was saying a couple years ago, is much faster, for sure, because now you're concentrating all that brilliant brainpower and their capital and resources towards achieving that objective. So, it seems like we're on step one, going to the moon. It's going to happen in 2028. We're going to learn a lot there. In parallel, we're going to make investments in nuclear power and propulsion.

8. 57:50

   SpaceX will unlock this, along with the rest of the industry that's pursuing all the economic potential in space, and hopefully that will free up a lot more resources for the next stop on this journey, which is Mars. That's a different timeframe. Again, I think you're probably in that 15-year timeframe. I guess first mission to Mars is private. First mission to Mars is NASA. I wouldn't say mission to Mars. I mean, landed astronaut mission. I would bet on NASA would probably be first. And that's just because I do think your first mission, if you want to bring back people to talk about it. NASA is not doing one-way missions. As a result, I think your dependency on chemical propulsion has to be limited. Otherwise, you're going to need a lot of Optimus robots on Mars, and they're going to be walking around dusting off all the solar panels

9. 58:44

   without nuclear for making propellant. Then it's hard enough to fuel a launch pad here in 1G and under one atmosphere, let alone making the propellant on another planet, reloading a rocket and bring it back. I love that view because if you scratched and clawed with chemical propellant your way to Mars, you'd be exactly repeating the 1960s moon mission where, yeah, we barely got there, but not in any kind of thing we can build on, not in a sustainable, reusable kind of way.

10. 59:12

    But if you do it with nuclear propulsion, then you actually have a pathway to doing it repeatedly and not just going as a one-off. It's such a cool vision. Just initially, right? I mean, so there's no doubt. To me, Starship and everything it hopes to achieve is just when. There's no if on that one. So step one, get it going, put up a lot of depots in low-Earth orbit, make the moon efficient transport of mass to the lunar surface, build the infrastructure, master a lot of in-situ resource skills you're going to need, because those are all necessary if you want to pull off Mars in a return trip without nuclear.

11. 59:47

    But even then, minimum, you're still going to want nuclear surface power if you can. And we're testing that on the moon as well. Or else, again, you'll need a lot of optics and robots cleaning off football fields of solar panels. But step one to start that foundation. Imagine like the space shuttle orbiter equivalent, obviously assembled on orbit assembly of these NEP, chemically augmented NEP spaceships.

12. 1:00:09

    And yes, it might be three years round trip, you know, with 30 day surface time. But it's a start and you get in a rotation until eventually the, you know, the V6 starships are rolling and you've got armies of Optimus robots and nuclear power on the surface of Mars. And then then you could be you could just you're just extending what you've already proven you can do to the moon to Mars. Dave, you want to continue?

13. 1:00:29

    Yeah, well, OK, so you've seen For All Mankind, right? I'm sure.