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Decoder · 3 min · Oct 17, 2026

SpaceX could sell service before its network is complete

Walter Piecyk

Telecom Analyst, LightShed Partners

Covers wireless networks, spectrum and smartphones as a LightShed Partners partner and TMT analyst.

  • Nilay PatelHost · Editor-in-chief, The Verge

    Helped start The Verge in 2011 and has hosted Decoder since 2020.

About this segment

Piecyk argues Dish’s challenge was attracting customers, not merely building a network. SpaceX could start with wholesale and satellite coverage, then expand capacity as its own network grows.

From “Why Elon Musk wants to sell you cell service | Decoder”, Oct 17, 2026. Watch the full episode

“And I think the same thing can happen here where they'll sell something that'll probably rely on other assets that are out there”
Walter Piecykat 11:55 · Decoder11:55

Takeaways

  1. Dish built some network capacity but did not compete nationally.
  2. Piecyk sees customer acquisition as a key difference for SpaceX.
  3. Wholesale and satellite coverage could support an early service launch.
Watch 2:38 from 10:08

In this episode

Full episode
  1. 18:41SpaceX will still need macro towers4:05
  2. 38:18Verizon has lost its network advantage6:01
  3. 25:36Mobile service gives SpaceX another valuation narrative3:56

  4. 10:08SpaceX could sell service before its network is complete2:38

Up next · DecoderFlock's network is only as secure as its weakest user3:19

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

  1. 10:20

    Remember when Sprint was struggling, Masa from SoftBank was claiming the same thing. They were going to cut their capex to nothing, and they were going to use these small cells. And they innovated how wireless was going to get delivered. That failed. Obviously, they had to get bailed out through the purchase when T-Mobile bought Sprint, effectively for just the spectrum. That network got completely decommissioned.

  2. 10:41

    To your point, DISH, they got network built, but they couldn't resonate in the market. The difference between DISH and SpaceX is Elon's ability to get customers. I think that's where DISH truly failed. They built the network. The network worked fine. They had the wholesale agreements that they needed. Well, I'll push back on you a little bit there. I have a very funny email from a DISH PR person from several years ago where they're like, we'd like to issue a correction to your story.

  3. 11:07

    Our network does exist. Right. Like that was the level that they were competing at where they had to insist to us that the network was real, even though we could not find it in our tests in the various cities they claim. Like maybe there was a network. They built some amount of network, but they had not built anything that compete at the national scale with the big three. Absolutely. It's not like your phone, the phone that I was using.

  4. 11:30

    I had an iPhone that it was mostly going to roam onto the AT&T and T-Mobile wholesale agreements that existed. And the theory is you get the customers, you have a go-to-market strategy, and then you backfill the network. And I think this is probably going to be something similar. And this is like you can even go back to when John Ledger first took over T-Mobile. They had a crappy network, right? And then he promised like, hey, we're going to build it with taking on customers, saying that the network is great before the network was great.

  5. 12:00

    And then it kind of caught up because they actually finally got the Germans to give them the money, Deutsche Telekom, to invest in the network. And I think the same thing can happen here where they'll sell something that'll probably rely on other assets that are out there, even if they can't, even if the telcos themselves are like circling the wagons, they have the satellite for certain, you know, benefits in terms of coverage and then just build the capacity over time.

  6. 12:25

    But, you know, the point is it's going to take time, right? You can't just turn on a network overnight and start selling service on that. So this has always been sort of my framework of how to think about telecom companies.