The alpha, twice a week
That was 3 min.
Get the best new moments in your inbox every Wednesday and Saturday. It's free.
Check your inbox
We sent a link to your address. Click it to finish signing up. Not there in a minute? Look in spam.
or
Prof G Markets · 3 min · Oct 28, 2026
The U.S. leads AV commercialization while China leads manufacturing
Waymo's paid rides put the U.S. ahead in commercialization, while China has a manufacturing cost edge.
In this episode
Full analysis- 2:15Q3 numbers reveal Anthropic’s growth slowed after token maxing3 min
- 5:42Anthropic’s commitments raise costs while price cuts test its moat5 min
- 25:32Autonomous fleets create opportunities beyond vehicle makers3 min
- 20:59The U.S. leads AV commercialization while China leads manufacturing3 min
“America is definitely in the lead because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is.”
Takeaways
- Waymo's paid rides put the U.S. ahead in commercialization.
- China's manufacturing costs support its AV expansion abroad.
- Europe and the Middle East are contested markets.
About this segment
Waymo's paid rides put the U.S. ahead in commercialization, while China has a manufacturing cost edge. Dan Chiolan sees Europe and the Middle East as key markets because neither side can enter the other's home market.
Research Associate, Prof G Media
Analyzes autonomous-vehicle markets, including Waymo’s lead and the ripple effects of driverless cars.
Ed Elson, Host
From “Steve Eisman: Here's What Anthropic Isn't Telling You”, Oct 28, 2026. Watch the full episode
Thanks. We'll look at and fix what's off.
Transcript
Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.
- 21:11
robotaxi service to having something operational. On an international level, who is winning the AV race? It sounds like you believe that the winner currently is Waymo, but Tesla seems to be beginning to catch up. On an international level, US, China, who's winning? Autonomous. Yeah, so I think internationally, it's definitely between the U.S. and China. There are, you know, countless companies in China trying to do autonomous driving. I think where China is really winning is in manufacturing because they have the ability to manufacture electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles.
- 21:51
at a cost that's much lower than any American company. But in terms of commercialization, America is definitely in the lead because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is. So we're sort of very clearly in first place in that aspect. The thing that I think is important to know is most likely we will never see each other's technology. Like America's never going to allow Chinese self-driving companies here in America and China won't allow American self-driving companies in China.
- 22:22
The place where the race is really going to play out is in the Middle East and Europe, where those countries can kind of, you know, choose which country to get their autonomous driving technology from. And I think what's interesting so far is in the Middle East and in Europe, they've by and large gone with Chinese companies, whereas, you know, American companies like Waymo or Tesla have not been able to expand internationally.
- 22:46
Do you think that is a function of Chinese technology being better or maybe it's a geopolitical strategy? I mean, I can't tell if that says something about China's influence on Europe and the Middle East geopolitically. What is your read? I think they already have entered those countries with their electric vehicles and their vehicles in general, which has allowed them to get sort of a foothold in the market there. But I also just think it speaks to American companies' strategy of focusing on the domestic battle first. Waymo does have plans to expand internationally, but they're really focused on rolling out here in America first.