Trump's approval was falling before the Iran war

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 28:31

   Saks, you're right. The endless war, endless inflation were the straw in the back of the camel, but I think you're absolutely wrong when it comes to what happened previously. All of the polls were correct. Everybody on the right said the polls were wrong. All the prediction markets were correct, and everybody on the right was saying that those were wrong and those were being manipulated. And for a year plus on this podcast, and I'd like to dissect this moment by moment, I had pointed out this chart. And this is the silver bulletin, which is just absolutely nailed this cycle. They did a great job. Nate Silver is phenomenal at what he does. And here, if you look at it, it's really worth looking at. It's not just the war. Liberation day people forget the tariffs trump started the term at five percent plus net approval rating he

2. 29:25

   ended it at negative 28 this is like an over 30 percent swing and liberation day as i pointed out when it happened was far too chaotic and i spoke to the ceo of cuts clothing if you remember we had this discussion on the podcast and he's a trump loyalist and people were arguing at that time oh these these tariffs are going to be great these are awesome and that no prices would be added and the American public didn't have to pay for it. And this was going to balance the budget. Not only did it not balance the budget, it did spike inflation. And President Trump should have just worked with Congress. Remember, he had to go to the Supreme Court. He lost there. And this is a leak in President Trump's game. Then over the summer, we had some pretty hot discussions here about the ICE enforcement. And I said, listen, no Americans, including people I know in law

3. 30:13

   enforcement, people I know, who employ people who have been here for 20 years, and yes, who are illegal aliens, technically, nobody wants to see this. Nobody wants to see masked agents without body cameras, beating people up in without their badges on, right? That was a huge mistake. And he had a massive drop, and then started to hit negative 20% net rating. This is all before the war started and if you look at the summer of 25 with those ice actions it also had the epstein files and that's where you lost all the podcast bros they did not want to have trump renege on sending the epstein files out and of course you get all the way to the war and the endless allegations of grifting and the endless inflation and that then just plummeted in from 20 to negative of 23. That's a series of events that happened. And I just want to stay for the record here. I'm

4. 31:11

   an independent. I vote now 55% Democrat in my life, 45% Republican. When we started this podcast, it was probably 70-30. I have moved significantly towards the right because of the lunacy of the left. But what happened here is the Trump 2.0 agenda, I think, got abandoned and there were tons of distraction. President Trump has the right ideas, but often his execution is extremely variable and that's just a way of being very generous to say it's chaotic and if you have that chaotic moment and then everything is about the data centers everything's about our industry everything's about helping us and people laugh and mock at the idea of raising the minimum wage you sort of pointed out here during your talk the k-shaped economy is kind of what you you were invoking there doesn't feel fair to people. And I think you made a very accurate point

5. 32:04

   that people are just swinging and just hoping somebody will care about the bottom half of non-equity holders. That's exactly what it is. And Trump didn't make people feel like he was working for them. That's why they abandoned him. And the grifting allegations, whether they're true or not, is all going to come out. But that's what we need to talk about. And it leads us to our second topic here, our second topic, which is going to be what the next 24 months are going to