Why Pakman expects Democrats to take the House but struggle in the Senate

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 28:49

   the house and the senate or at least the house definitely um what do you think the last two years of the trump presidency looks like if that happens well should we first talk about what scenario i think is more most likely sure i mean i i think that there is going to be movement to the democratic party on november 3rd it is almost certain that the democrats will take the house although i think it will be by a smaller margin than some of the predictions suggest I think the Senate's going to be really a lot tougher.

2. 29:21

   And I don't, I'm not saying I think Republicans will necessarily keep it, but there are a lot of these races where I am suspicious at the level of enthusiasm that the Democratic candidates are necessarily going to win. I mean, I'll give you one example. There are these three Senate races that are being looked at very closely. There's Maine, there is Michigan, and there's Texas. If you look at the polling, the Democratic candidates are winning all three.

3. 29:48

   If you look at the betting markets, to the extent that you value that, the Democratic candidates are expected to win all three. I think it's extremely unlikely that the Democratic candidate wins all three of those. Now, they may well win two or at least one, but that's an example of where I think the poll... and the betting markets have gotten a little bit ahead of where I am on the Senate. I think it's going to be tougher.

4. 30:08

   Why do you think it's going to be tougher? Well, I, I, a couple of things. One, we've seen, especially when there are Republican incumbents, late voters tend to break for the Republican incumbent. We've seen this in Maine with Susan Collins before, and we've seen it with the Texas incumbent Republicans as well. And this time it's not an incumbent because it's Paxton, but same analysis. Now, I understand and am empathetic to the argument that some of my friends on the left give, which is it's never been this one sided in the polling just weeks before this time it's going to be different. Fine. That that may be the case. But my expectation is the Senate is going to be a lot tougher than some of my friends think it's going to be. OK, so say, well, let's talk about both, I suppose. Yeah. Let's say the Democrats control

5. 30:52

   the House and or the Senate as well. Yeah. What does the Trump presidency for the last two years look like? Because I imagine it's a lot harder to get anything done if you're in that position. Yeah. The Democrats I've spoken to have said, we are not going to vote down everything that Trump wants. There are relatively non-controversial things on which there is bipartisanship, a lot of budgetary issues, etc. So I don't think it is going to become this principled like we are a no on everything and nothing will be passed because a lot of this stuff is just about the sort of pedestrian funding of the country.

6. 31:25

   And I don't expect there to be any kind of like gridlock deliberately caused by Democrats. But in terms of, you know, for 10 years, Trump's been promising this beautiful health care bill that's been two weeks away now since July of 2020. It's any day now it's going to be signed in. Now he won't tell us about it until after the election. It's always just over the horizon. There is no chance of a massive health care bill passing in these last two years if Democrats take either the House and Senate.

7. 31:52

   it. But I'll be honest, there was no chance of it passing anyway because they've not really put forward any good ideas. But the possibility of a big legislation, I think, is zero. I do think that if Democrats take the House, which I think is the most likely scenario, there will be oversight, there will be subpoenas, there will be hearings. I am a law and order guy. So I know that a lot