Why Tom Slater sees a sharp shift among young male voters

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 39:01

   So that that kind of aligns with the NBC data. I would also just make the case, I said this at the beginning of why I thought the BBC were wrong to say this is a historic catastrophe for Trump and the Republicans, is that in 1994, Clinton lost 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate, which is more on both counts than Trump has lost here. and then went on to win the presidential in 1996 and there's been similar other scenarios where you can have big change and actually the voters can be more capricious than one realizes one sort of assumes it's kind of tribal and i think people are prepared to move around with their vote and it doesn't mean that they can't come back so long as they diagnose what went wrong a bit better i think. And there's just one other detail that I found interesting with regards to why the votes

2. 40:04

   might have gone where they're gone. And the Wall Street Journal did a review of how much people have moved around the country in the last two years. And you have had a lot of people moving from the north to the south. And so that might partially explain some of the change. And for example, Hispanics in the South has increased from 22% up from 13% in that period. And if the Hispanics are not happy about what they've seen about the deportations, I think he's lost them there. And so it's interesting how the demographics move. Sorry, but you're right, we should talk about what this means for next. And on that question, it's interesting that if you look at the coalition that they put together last time around so we've spoken a bit about latinos latino men in particular moving away from the republicans in a big way but it's also like suburbanites it's

3. 41:00

   also young men there was one fox news poll which looked at men under 30 so in 2024 trump were had won the republicans had won amongst them by plus 15 points by 2026 the democrats had won amongst them by plus 33 so that's a swing of 48 in the space of two years but i think that's a really fascinating insight into just how quickly this is all unraveled because it's not to say that the republic has done for generations now it's not to say that this is a hole that they can never climb themselves out of i think what it's clear is that the trump project has unraveled uh the extent to which trump was a vehicle for the discontent not just as a sort of forgotten working class although in large part that was clear but also various other constituencies who felt that America was on the wrong track, that it had been trapped in sort of globalist ideology,

4. 41:49

   woke pieties and needed just a complete shake-up, I think now that has drawn to a close. And that even though, obviously, he was not going to, despite his protestations, he was not going to run for the presidency again, there's a sense that there needs to be a rethink, there needs to be a recalibration, and there needs to be a different offer or a different form that is put forward in order to bring those people back together.

5. 42:13

   Whilst I agree that the 2024 coalition of the tech bros, who, by the way, probably,