Watch mode

“The most important thing that you should always look at is how the sharps, the super smart money, prices risk.”

“It simply hit math first because math is easiest to verify. It's going to hit all of science. It's going to hit all of engineering, all of medicine”

“the person on this entire network with the worst security hygiene is going to be as secure as the entire network will be”

“if you just kind of look at our compute, people see a couple of labs, but I see more than that. I see five, six labs.”

“Of the 12 and a half million tests that she ran, the government brought forward four patients that they accused her of defrauding with inaccurate results.”

“The companies that have been most successful that I've been involved with are ones where the pivot foot was about the technology, not about necessarily market understanding”

“And distillation is a way to effectively spend more money to get what is compute equivalent. Like outputs from a language model are a function of compute.”

“And they were open AI and the 01 was batting a 10 out of 10, which was amazing to me.”

“every great product, every great leader, every great decision comes from understanding that trade-off and realizing what does not matter.”

“Where I get off the train is I think takeover is a lot harder than maybe the literal statement suggests.”

“What that means is that you just point your web browser at one malicious website, and the attacker will own your entire Windows PC.”

“What's really hard is that the customers believe or validate that your robot creates enough value that they want to deploy your robots across many of their sites.”

“it took a few hours to like outperform the two years of work which we'd done as with human in the loop”

“If you had a thousand dollars in your pocket and someone took out five and ran away, you wouldn't then say, Hey, here's the rest.”

“It's like the opposite of lean startup. Like lean startup is like, yeah, you like see if you get something working and then you double down”

“The modern quantum computers run at a clock speed of hundreds of hertz or thousands of hertz, not at the gigahertz that we're used to.”

“if you have a system where the improvee, the things being improved, is also the thing that's doing the improvement, you now have a new way to think about it.”

“as context expands, and as individual user has a lot of personal context, the context window increase dominates the batch size.”

“what served you can also screw you. The dose makes the poison.”

“Anytime Greptile gives any sort of feedback or a score under five out of five, the grep loop fires. It takes in the feedback. It writes the code. It pushes to GitHub.”

“They very rarely, at least in my experience, have come from design sprints or times where you set aside on a calendar”

“the promise of AGI is that we're going to spend almost none of the time doing things that we have to do”

“you have to decompose their number. And so, okay, you did 2 million. That's great. How much of it was inbound? How much of it was outbound?”

“There's no announced plan for new revenue. Right now, it's shrink. It's cut costs. It's when we mush these two companies together, we're going to save $6 billion over the next three years.”

“there will be certain points in reasoning that the model was initially sort of at a 50% chance of this answer and 30% chance of this answer.”

“presentations fail from too much information, not too little information. And I think that's true with books too.”

“The real question for AI is where can you apply that loop model in a way that you can make a better prediction or better idea, each loop”

“when we train a protein language model, we train on metagenomic sequences, which are not the highest quality data.”

“You can kind of think about it as for every generation of model, there's a 4X multiplier in compute, roughly.”

“I can design the thing in three months, but I can't actually get it into real silicon at scale for nine months.”

“the church does not support machine consciousness. The priority is what he calls safeguarding the human.”

“This is different because we're getting this capability before we've really characterized the shape of the threat.”

“I have a bribeable chief of staff. Like I have a corrupt butler. Is that what you want? That is a great term for it, a corrupt butler.”

“So I think there's going to be potentially a 10 to 100x increase in volume and the number of queries that are going to hit up against databases.”

“We found that if someone is politically active as a teenager, but CZs to be in their early 20s that tends to correlate highly with someone's drive”

“if the pre-trained model has already memorized some of this data and then you try to do reinforcement learning on that, if it already knows the answer”

“there's all the people in the org who don't really. We don't really want to maintain their own cause and then the people who do want to do it like eventually you kind of get tired of it”

“Keep that problem exactly the same, but now change the business context. Now we're sending concert tickets. So you're getting tickets to go see Tay-Tay, right?”

“the glitch allowed us to get what one entrepreneur, Paul Alstrom, who wrote the book Nail It and Scale It, he calls it your beachhead.”

“You've got to break stars. You're going to launch stars. You need stars to put it behind the paywall so that people buy the paywall.”

“I really don't see how you're going to make trillions of dollars from foundation models because of potential bottlenecks, either in the development of the models or in their diffusion.”

“the most at-scale workload, so the largest workloads where you're spending the most money, is actually where you're going to want to go and post-train first, right?”

“if you have failure recovery, if you have whatever it is that's interrupting your work, That's part of the issue.”

“for movies and video games, which are two of the kind of like biggest, you know, parts of the American economy, they spend more money on marketing than they do on actually making the product”

“founders are default optimists extremely exuberant and by the way do not know how to forecast a business it's just not in their like bread and butter”

“I think the majority of actions on the internet will be taken by agents. Models are going to become more cheaper and faster at rates that are, you know, quite incredible.”

“So the attempt to try and centralize and manage the control of the software, I think is a fool's errand.”

“the solution to many tasks is very similar across like tasks where you don't even like it's not even that clear to you that the solutions are similar.”

“They took captured enemy weapons. They learned to fix conquistador swords to the end of long wooden poles, improvising pike tactics.”

“if you think about live deployments at S&P 500 companies, that's at 69 percent.”

“There'll be some form of a blowup, a pretty high-profile one where people lose a whole bunch of money. and that will cause a reset.”

“you can edit the etc. host and that the Azure storage bucket is a white-labeled thing.”

“I think one thing I always try to encourage people to do, you know, whether you're a pstack user or not is to actually spend the time to sort of observe the bot or agent doing”

“It's becoming such that like knowing what to prompt and knowing what to build is so much more difficult and valuable than just knowing, you know, the CTO being able to code the thing.”

“They beat placebo in a statistically significant margin, but not necessarily in a clinically significant margin.”

“Intuition is actually the most valuable when there isn't direct feedback because very many of the most important choices that we had to make”

“to get that magical 10x, 100x, in a few rare cases, 1,000x productivity boost, you have to interact with the agents directly.”

“The more competition experience you have, the more relaxed and confident you'll feel. It builds up over time.”

“If you can find something that's messed up and easy to un-mess up, booyah, there's your money. There's your opportunity to make a lot of money.”

“I don't think the Confederacy could have absorbed the loss of Richmond at that point.”

“the biggest source of confidence is success. So if you get in the habit of making $100, well, next we make $1,000.”

“Something like 46 percent of the emperors of Constantinople are overthrown through violence. 46 percent. That's almost half.”

“the math you get to is it's about $5 billion per gigawatt of CapEx to put these in space.”

“I think it is the absolute, the pinnacle of arrogance to think that what we can do, given the understanding that we have from what we've measured now”

“They were about to find out just how powerful that technicality was. Or Jack was about to test it, shall we say.”

“LLMs do not have the ability to predict the consequences of their actions. and they do not have any planning abilities because inference is by predicting the next token”

“it's not even close right it's not even close right it's not like five percent ten percent slower it's multiple times slower”

“it is the greatest real estate scam in history”

“I think there's something very exciting here about just like not having the training signal fight against us.”

“the install base is in fact the single most important part of an architecture. The architecture could attract enormous amounts of criticism.”

“the people that are already great songwriters, because you have to be able to recognize when it spits out something good.”

“none of these services have a squatter protection. So I had two browser windows open. One was like an empty account ready to be renamed to CloudBot.”

“It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into.”

“if somebody gave them a 15 discount you know the difference between our gross margins was called 75 points and somebody else's gross margins call it 50 to 65 points”

“The factory makes 1,000 cars a day with 2,000 employees. It was highly automated, like really highly automated.”

“I like to say that tokens trump tariffs, right? Basically. And so we're basically left with this deficit.”

“the amount of code that's being created now is orders of magnitude already bigger than it was before Coding Assistant.”

“I think we're going to see that in the next two to three years maximum.”

“if you were to have a police officer follow someone or go through public traffic cams, which are all over the country, go through every single public traffic cam”

“We're putting way too much pressure on two labs. I'm delighted to partner with them and support them.”

“I think that was the single biggest mistake that Elizabeth has ever made, to be really clear.”

“The other thing I learned was when you just vibe code something for yourself, you have to maintain it.”

“but fundamentally, like AI progress is about data and about writing better software to serve your models.”

“So the key thing is I need to call you right when you're taking the blood pressure measurement because now you're in that mode.”

“The hard problem to solve is control, is once you're in the air, can you stay in the air?”

“When we see those indicators, we should probably pause and try to figure out what went down before going forward again.”

“the benefit of pooling is we get to essentially load balance across these different customer types”

“whenever you're predicting abstract representation of the world you're encoding your own bias into what's important to predict”

“the pursuit and optimization of a very simple, easy to describe quantities can often give rise to incredibly hard to describe complexity and emergence.”

“I know to my core, the person I'm going to show you right now is the person I'm going to become 12 to 24 months from now.”

“if AI works overall, plenty of other people want all our compute. So they're willing to pay.”

“Pfizer would sell you a drug for a million bucks that was worth a billion dollars. They didn't care.”

“we have one of our engineers that we named him the Viceroy of Variance.”

“You actually need to have a lot of depth in the users you have. You still need a lot of users.”

“You care not just about the destination, but about the journey, right? How did you get there okay”

“it forces the agent to prove that this bug actually happens. Right. Because sometimes it just might have been user error.”

“What I found is the opposite. The team usually knows before the leader knows.”

“We had many checkpoints that were like green on 80 of the rows, but red on 20 of the rows. We knew that wasn't good enough.”

“my theory on this, is that they're overcomplicating the task massively by trying to train the model to behave based on an 80-page ethical system that they've codified.”

“I liken it to we start typically off renting our apartments, but then as you grow up, you want to own a house for various reasons, even if it's a bit of a headache.”

“the emotional sense in the room was like there's just such a weight.”

“the doom scenario becomes like way more human enabled if you are able to amass capital pretty quickly as a rogue agent.”

“What I know about consumers is that the first time it doesn't work, they just walk away. They have no incentive to try again to overcome frustration or brokenness.”

“they were able to get it up to like 99.5%, which is insane. I think that is, I think that's a viable thing now if you invest the time”

“I find that generally people lose motivation as they gain experience.”

“magnesium diboride sat on people's shelves as a precursor for decades before then, and BCS theory had been invented back in 1957.”

“Builders want to be exposed to the complexity. Because that's everything you want to do is going in there and tinkering and turning knobs and whatnot.”

“so that's the problem with an item potency you want to make it safe to retry important”

“Give me five seconds and then I get five minutes. They're okay with that. But I've earned it. Yes, because I've earned the attention.”

“Egon goes and says, you're not going to remember this $500 million. $400. $400 million.”

“imagine you have 100 employees. And I tell you, you can automate 5% of those jobs and reduce the cost by half in those 5”

“it is surprisingly easy to hill climb on non-verifiable domains if you turn them into some proxy verifiable domain.”

“if we projected inference to be 2% or 5% of the market, even if that specialized chip is, let's say, 2x faster, it might not make sense, right?”

“one of the first things I come into a business when I do is build what I call an operating model, which is effectively the math behind what needs to be true”

“we will pay our plugins that are popular and are seeing a lot of usage. They're going to get part of the revenue share as well.”

“although this agreement was entered into voluntarily the governance that follows from it is not voluntary it is now day fast it's fiduciary”

“as a PhD student, I think you're in such a unique position where you can work on literally whatever you want, for the most part”

“the force that marches on Tenochtitlan, the total numbers, the conquistadors were maybe one-half of one percent in raw numbers of that force.”

“how much incremental demand can I get from an AI agent? How many more orders can they bring me?”

“in basically every eval problem that it faces, it thinks about the correct solution and decides not to do it.”

“We pulled the data recently, and just in the last two years, YC has funded more than a dozen companies that are each making more than $10 million a year”

“my playbook was, err on the side of being just extremely picky, take a decent amount of time, start early”

“choosing the right of valid solutions is actually the hard part, not finding a right solution.”

“it might be the case that as we scale up RL, the extent to which you would have to clean up your environments is just going to be totally impossible.”

“reaching the championship and staying there reaching it is one thing but staying a champion that's totally different it's incredibly tough”

“The biggest lever, the biggest component is the differential between what I raise capital at due to my relationships with mostly institutional investors”

“The old pattern in the Civil War, Lex, was you fight a battle, one side retreats. It might be weeks, might be months before you fight again.”

“the pain of failure hurts more than success feels good. So what happens is we tend to index toward our failures, right? We bring the pain of the past failures to the moment.”

“foreign invasions, those which they could not cope with. They coped with lots of them. But, you know, all it takes is to lose to one and you lose some part of your territory.”

“Frontier might be 90% of the economic value. Open source might be 80% of tokens.”

“So that means at that rate, with that facility, it would take a billion years running with very little downtime to make a single gram of antimatter.”

“If you invested $100,000 at age 25, and you got 7% market returns for 40 years, you'd end up with $1.5 million.”

“all of your information diet will be mediated by ai assistants”

“it's the fact that i believe that you need to win money ethically there is the right way of doing that”

“They would be traders in, say, an English port, kind of looking around, they'd get everyone's schedule, then they would sail away and come back as Vikings.”

“There is a much more data efficient way of learning that we know, which is like learning in context.”

“I'd rather strip it all back to zero and say, first of all, explain to me why it's 74 days in the first place.”

“we decided in World of Warcraft, we said, why don't we make the path of least resistance?”

“sometimes you may have to say no to some of the demand, including some of the open AI demand, right?”

“let's say that that ten trillion dollars of token generated fifty percent gross margins and five trillion of it needs a factory needs an AI infrastructure”

“Right-sizes the workforce. At the same time as AI comes in, now the company's lean and mean, innovates, outcompetes companies like Google and Meta”

“If Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction, I think it's much better for them to have 200 to $250 billion today”

“I just want to like Google Maps my way from A to B through intervention space.”

“Whenever you're testing an AI, zero trust, minimum boundaries, minimum rights, and you expand it as you test and give yourself confidence.”

“So that raised her sentence from something like four and a half or five years to 11.”

“I think about that as how many people were in a position to learn the thing that you did.”

“All the scaling laws are exponential increase in compute for linear increase in performance.”

“And then for the last 10 years, we've spent about 40 trillion on health care. We have not moved our life expectancy an inch.”

“without the vision of a goal, a man cannot hope to manage his own life, let alone the life of others.”

“they actually had synchronous classification or monitoring as a to-do item, but they didn't actually get to that to-do item”

“semiconductor manufacturing was invented to make one kind of machine, right? It's the semiconductor transistor and circuits built around that.”

“I think data quality in robotics is a non-stationary problem in the sense that what is high-quality data for your model changes over time.”

“I believe that the approach of monitoring the human language that these systems use is going to be increasingly difficult as agents get more powerful.”

“you follow up forever until people buy, die, or they bought something and they don't want to, they don't want to work with you”

“I didn't realize how petrified I was of not being seen as a great trader. What a stupid thing.”

“I don't want an AI that just spits out slop that makes a vibe-coded clone.”

“They put like 15 million dollars of compute into solving this one million dollar problem.”

“planning for me isn't the agent writing the spec and me reviewing the spec and me saying, go build it.”

“you're looking at people's eyes. And like, that is the metric. It is not a DAO. It's not a DAO over a Mao.”

“I remembered like the internet rewards risk and it rewards like surprise and like things that like people don't expect.”

“I have not seen a straight shot sprint to an ownership market, but you have to go through the rental stage to become an owner.”

“for every breakthrough in math, you should assume there's a bunch of other breakthroughs in other fields that have more commercial applications”

“the LLMs can get you maybe 85% of the way there and tuning certain things.”

“Every time someone recommends that we should add complexity, whether it's a step in a process, a feature, a team, head count to a team, you name it”

“full autonomy is a non goal. It's sort of in the service that we use automation in the service of achieving the goals on the data.”

“I really don't see like, us, or the industry, repeating the chaos of like, every worker gets their coworker, and we're all gonna like double our company size, you know?”

“One of the really nasty things about robustness is the things we often do to make our systems more robust in turn increases the complexity of our system”

“We tell ourselves stories in our heads that we then believe. And those are not real stories. Those are just stories. They're just not reality.”

“I basically think what's blocking continual learning is basically extremely data-efficient training from sparse rewards, which is an unsolved problem.”

“the demand for accelerated computers going up, but the demand for CPU and networking and storage, the traditional data center CPU, et cetera, is also going through the roof at the same time.”

“the remaining support team that we have really is now finding legitimate problems in the product and then working really closely with the engineering”

“The fundamental difference in the way that we've built dots is the harness does not run on the machine.”

“So unemployment is still near record lows at 4.1%, even though labor participation rose 0.2% to 61.6”

“if you bring in someone who knows something about the problem, they can uncover something for the model that would like erase that one trillion token spend.”

“prompting is really this like this it's like public speaking you know like or writing or something and for a specific audience and that audience is cloud”

“we are creating bots as more persistent named agents that have their own identity, memory system, have their own tools.”

“usually it's like one giant bottleneck. And I think you should at that point identify what that giant bottleneck is and then focus the whole company”

“Here's the thing that LLMs and machines cannot do. Machines can't take responsibility.”

“I like to ask them, if this was your money, would you buy this company?”

“all it had to do was convince a majority of the civilian population of the loyal states that it wasn't worth the cost to make these rebel states come back into the Union.”

“We spend our adult lives undoing the debris of childhood. So just pause there for a minute and think about your life.”

“we're spending $1.5 trillion of CapEx on $300 billion of inference revenue.”

“Both accelerators could either find it or definitively rule out the predictions of simple Higgs theory. 100% guaranteed.”

“So when all is said and done, the Vanguard 500 returns a total of 126% net after fees for the 10-year period, while the hedge fund portfolio returns just 36”

“LLMs are good programmers they're not software architects they're not computer scientists right but they can program for us”

“at some point the security industry needs to realize you can't keep crying wolf like this”

“So he turns to one of his guards and says, you kissed the foot.”

“I definitely agree that continual learning is really the thing. It's really the thing that we're building.”

“99% of the time, we're nowhere near the worst case condition because the worst case condition is a few days in the winter, a few days in the summer”

“he says to me, if it doesn't do”

“people screamed so loudly that the Beatles thought, okay, we don't, we don't need, we can't tour anymore because we can't even hear ourselves.”

“if you are high ARPU, low usage, then you have a little bit of a problem. But if you are, we are the exact opposite.”

“you don't have the foundations and university endowments that you do here. And the billionaires that have made wealth typically are looking to diversify offshore.”

“data is useless unless you can join data sets that don't speak to each other that is the unlock”