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The Real Eisman Playbook · 3 min · Jan 5, 2026

Housing affordability depends on local supply barriers

Steve Eisman

Steve Eisman argues that subsidies and longer mortgages do little to fix affordability if local rules restrict homebuilding.

The episode’s best minutes

Full analysis
  1. 8:51AI adoption is early, but power and scaling remain constraints5 min
  2. 28:13Housing affordability depends on local supply barriers3 min
  3. 40:22Software incumbents may retain value through installed bases3 min
  4. 3 more moments in the full episode
“The problem with affordability in the United States is local. It's all local.”
Steve Eismanat 29:21 · The Real Eisman Playbook
29:21

Takeaways

  1. Local impact fees can add 10–15% to building costs.
  2. Rules that block smaller homes constrain supply.
  3. Eisman says policy action on state permitting would show real intent.

About this segment

Steve Eisman argues that subsidies and longer mortgages do little to fix affordability if local rules restrict homebuilding. He points to permitting and impact fees as the underlying constraints.

Steve Eisman, Host

From “2026 Predictions with Dan Ives and Chris Verrone | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 40”, Jan 5, 2026. Watch the full episode

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

  1. 28:26

    So let's take it easy a little bit on the rate concerns. But by the way, just to switch gears for a second, hasn't helped. Whatever rates have done hasn't helped housing at all. No. Housing is just dead. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a very important, frankly, next couple of weeks for these housing stocks, right? So you've had what were very good rallies in D.R. Horton, et cetera, over the course of the summer.

  2. 28:50

    And they gave it back. Gave back about half of it, right? D.R. kind of hanging out right at very, very critical support here. If housing has a shot in 26, I think the stocks have to be anticipatory of that right now and have to turn up from this condition. So let me say something about that because I'll tell you when I'll know if the Trump administration is serious. If you go back to the campaign, you had the Democrats talking about giving – helping first-time homebuyers by giving them money.

  3. 29:20

    And that wasn't going to help anything because that would just cause positive prices to go up. And then you have this administration talk about 50-year mortgage. Same thing. It's just going to cause housing prices to go up. The problem with affordability in the United States is local. It's all local. It's impact fees that communities put on it at 10 to 15. percent of the costs. It's regulations that prevent home builders from building smaller homes. So I'll know when the politicians of this country are serious about tackling real affordability, if they start to withhold money from states, literally withhold money from states unless they start to hurry up the process of approving things. Until then, it's pure interest rates i have no i have no i have no long-term prediction about rate i think rates would have

  4. 30:15

    you know the 10 year would have to go to like three and a half for there to be really a real good bump in housing i think the problem with 10 year yields going three and a half is then you begin to wonder why like what are we missing on the economy side exactly what's weakened here like i mean the reality is 10 year yields have been in a range for three years they have you know 375 on the low side maybe 460 on the high side um i can't think of good uh good reasons why we escape that range on either side that's so interesting it's like but you do see so many