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Prof G Markets · 3 min · Jan 16, 2025

The bond market could constrain Trump’s agenda

Andrew Ross Sorkin · Editor-at-Large of DealBook, The New York Times

Andrew Ross Sorkin argues that bond investors may be the only effective check on a unified Republican government.

The episode’s best minutes

Full analysis
  1. 28:10Private equity is stuck until firms can exit investments4 min
  2. 35:12AI infrastructure may have a stronger moat than language models4 min
  3. 23:53The bond market could constrain Trump’s agendaPro pick 3 min
  4. One more moment in the full episode
Up next · Prof G MarketsTreat bonuses as variable money, not income you rely onPro pick 4:36
“the only potential governor on them is oddly enough the bond market”
Andrew Ross Sorkinat 25:37 · Prof G Markets
25:37

Takeaways Pro pick

  1. Republicans are positioned to control the White House and Congress.
  2. Bond investors can withhold demand or require higher yields.
  3. Higher borrowing costs would make things more expensive broadly.

About this segment

Andrew Ross Sorkin argues that bond investors may be the only effective check on a unified Republican government. If they demand higher yields, borrowing—and costs across the economy—rise.

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Andrew Ross Sorkin is editor-at-large of DealBook at The New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC’s Squawk Box.

Founded DealBook and co-anchors CNBC’s Squawk Box; wrote the bestselling books 1929 and Too Big to Fail.

From “LA Fires, Trump Trades, TikTok, and Legacy Media’s Fate — ft. Andrew Ross Sorkin | Prof G Markets”, Jan 16, 2025. Watch the full episode

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

  1. 24:05

    Inauguration Day, which is next week. Just to get started, what are some of the main economic themes you're watching as we head into Trump's second turn now? Oh, goodness. I think I'm focused on probably two or three biggies. It's all the stuff everybody knows, though. It's inflation, inflation, inflation. I'm fascinated right this particular moment about the idea that we have, you know, rates that are supposed to be down in the twos, but happen in reality to be close to five now and what that really means and how the market may become sort of a governor on this next administration away. We'll talk about that, I'm sure. I am fascinated by tariffs, which of course have a direct and interconnected relationship with inflation, and we'll see where that goes. And I'm fascinated, as I think we all

  2. 24:53

    are, by AI and what that's ultimately going to do, not just to our economy, but to our way of life. So I think all three of those things are probably going to intersect in unique, bizarre, and complicated ways over the next four years. You said the markets would be a governor of this administration. I find that a very interesting statement. What do you mean by that? So we're walking into a four-year period, or at least the next two years, where this is a red country, right? We are going to have a Republican in the White House or Republicans that are going to control the Senate, Republicans that are going to control the House.

  3. 25:32

    normally you'd say that they're going to run everything if there is any blockade to this administration's efforts and the republicans to get what they want over the next call it two years because we'll see what happens in two years in the midterms the only potential governor on them is oddly enough the bond market If, in fact, the investor class around the world says, you know what, we're just not doing it this way.

  4. 26:02

    We don't like what's going on here. They can vote with their wallet and they can say, we are not going to be buying your bonds unless you're going to pay us a lot more for them, in which case everything becomes a lot more expensive for all of us. And that is the only thing, frankly, that I can even imagine that is a governor on the politics of our country over the next, call it two years.