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LA Fires, Trump Trades, TikTok, and Legacy Media’s Fate — ft. Andrew Ross Sorkin | Prof G Markets

Andrew Ross Sorkin says bond markets may constrain Trump’s agenda, while trust and reporting offer legacy journalism a path to adapt.

Prof G Markets · Scott Galloway & Ed Elson

  • Andrew Ross Sorkin is editor-at-large of DealBook at The New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC’s Squawk Box.

The best minutes

  1. 28:10Private equity is stuck until firms can exit investments4 min
  2. 35:12AI infrastructure may have a stronger moat than language models4 min
  3. 23:53The bond market could constrain Trump’s agendaPro pick 3 min

Also worth watching

  1. 14:09California’s fire insurance backstop faces a large funding gap4 min

Skip the Kalshi and tipping discussions, plus the 14-minute TikTok, media and career conversation.

Full analysis · 6 min read

Real Alpha · Nov 8

Rates close to 5 may check Trump, Andrew Ross Sorkin says

  • Sorkin said rates were supposed to be in the twos but were close to five.
  • Bond buyers could constrain Trump, but Sorkin offered a possibility, not a forecast of retreat.
  • Budget for higher financing costs while testing whether AI products can defend prices.

Free with an account

Read the rest of the analysis

6 sections, the 5 other voices it tests Sorkin against, and what it means for you. Every episode we cut gets one.

Signed up before? The same buttons sign you in. The episode, its moments and the transcript stay free.

25:51

Bond buyers may constrain Trump’s agenda

Sorkin’s opening economic constraint was the price of government borrowing. He called bond investors the only potential governor on a unified Republican government over roughly the next two years.

If investors demand higher yields, federal borrowing costs rise, and financing becomes more expensive across the economy. That can reach business investment and customers’ access to credit without directly changing policy.

Benn Steil made the supply point on The Real Eisman Playbook in October 2026. He said heavier debt issuance requires attracting more rate-sensitive buyers.

Chamath Palihapitiya on All-In in October 2026 linked AI borrowers competing with Treasuries to economy-wide rate risk. Those comparisons show exposure, but do not establish that bondholders will force a political retreat.

“the only potential governor on them is oddly enough the bond market”
25:51

Our read

Our reading is that bond yields are a potential transmission channel, not a guaranteed veto. Put them in financing stress tests, not political base cases.

27:34

High valuations leave little room for disappointment

Sorkin’s caution was not a call to rotate out of U.S. assets. He said the country remained better placed than much of the world, while valuations looked high.

That combination matters more than a simple bullish or bearish label. Strong recent returns and optimism about Trump’s policies do not erase inflation, tariffs or financing risks.

Ed said he thought the P/E was in the 30s and asked whether international flows could reverse. Sorkin said he did not see that reversal necessarily happening in the next year.

The episode offers a risk map, not a fair-value estimate. Sorkin named no earnings path, tariff outcome or yield level that would justify current prices.

A finance team cannot use these comments to time a market turn. It can test whether projects still work if borrowing costs rise or demand falls short.

Our read

Our reading is that Sorkin offered caution without a timing call. Boards need their own sensitivity analysis because he supplied no valuation target.

28:53

Private equity marks cannot free pension cash

Private equity’s immediate blockage, in Sorkin’s account, is cash conversion. He said there had been so few exits that many pension investors could not provide fresh capital.

For example, firms can report rising portfolio marks while their investors wait for proceeds to recycle into new commitments. Sorkin said those marks might be real, but exits test them against market prices.

He separated venture capital’s longer private-company duration from private equity’s difficulty selling at its desired multiples. A slow exit market does not prove every holding is overpriced, but it delays that test.

Danny Moses and Steve Eisman discussed slower realizations, fund gates and fundraising pressure on The Real Eisman Playbook in October 2026. Their account supports the liquidity concern, not a finding that every fund is insolvent.

For fund managers and investors, the distinction is between reported value and returned cash. Rising valuations cannot pay an LP or finance the next fundraise.

“most U.S. pension funds have no cash to give”
28:53

Our read

Our reading is that realized proceeds matter more than marks when investors decide whether capital is available. Slow exits are a warning, not proof of insolvency.

36:10

Infrastructure looks sturdier than model pricing

Ed’s question put OpenAI and Anthropic somewhere between 60 and 80 times revenue. Sorkin did not independently validate that range.

He was more confident about chipmakers and energy, saying demand for AI infrastructure had a long road ahead. His software question was whether similar language models become commodities, weakening the case for premium valuations.

For example, he pointed to xAI’s rapid launch. Sorkin said that with enough money and NVIDIA chips, a team could create a relatively competitive model in a year.

That example tests defensibility, not training costs, inference costs, energy supply or customer retention. Sorkin did not quantify those factors, and infrastructure demand alone does not prove every investment will earn an adequate return.

Garrison Lovely on Future of Life Institute Podcast in October 2026 described the risk that capable open-weight models could weaken frontier pricing. Erik Bernhardsson on Latent Space in October 2026 raised another risk, as falling hardware prices could punish firms locked into costly supply.

“you too can create a large language model that is relatively competitive with others”
37:12

Our read

Our reading is that AI demand and AI rents are separate questions. Chips and energy may see more use while model providers still struggle to defend price.

48:34

Trust depends on reporting and audience connection

Sorkin did not frame the media question as a choice between legacy reporting and citizen journalism. He said established outlets can resource reporting, while phone footage can help and false material can spread.

Speaking about Ed and Scott, Sorkin said their audiences might trust their good faith and homework without treating every word as accurate. That point concerned the podcasters and their audiences, not a universal standard he set for legacy reporters.

Later, he said traditional media needs to connect better with readers, viewers and listeners. That is his application of the trust problem to legacy outlets, not a guarantee that connection will restore their economics.

For example, he pointed to reporters on the ground during the Los Angeles fires, alongside useful citizen footage and material he said was made up. Neither source type has automatic credibility.

Sensational falsehoods can win attention before corrections reach the same audience. That makes verification harder to monetize, even when it remains valuable to readers.

“they believe that what you're saying is in good faith”
48:34

Our read

Our reading is that credibility can distinguish reporting only when audiences can see the work behind it. It does not, by itself, prove a profitable model.

54:38

Sorkin sees reporting as the core of his work

Asked where he would invest his own effort, Sorkin said journalism remained the core of his career. Reporting, interviews and source work, he said, feed books, television and other projects.

He said he started at The New York Times at 18 and named advertising columnist Stewart Elliott as a professional model. Sorkin described Elliott as deeply embedded in his industry, trusted by readers and willing to hold that world accountable.

That example describes Sorkin’s own approach, not a prescription for every media company. He said journalism could still offer business opportunity amid the trust problem and AI, though outcomes might divide winners and losers.

He did not explain how AI might change newsroom costs, revenue or staffing. The episode offers a view of his own work, not a publisher investment plan.

An editorial implication is to measure whether reporting quality affects audience retention, rather than assume that trust will pay.

Our read

Our reading is that Sorkin sees reporting as the foundation of his own work and a possible source of opportunity. Publishers still need to show how it supports their business.

What it means for you

  1. Stress-test financing. Model projects against higher borrowing costs and weaker customer credit. Identify which expansions or refinancings become difficult before committing capital.
  2. Track realized exits. Compare private-market marks with cash returned to investors. Ask how much capital is actually available for new commitments.
  3. Separate AI exposure. Budget infrastructure and model software as different risks. Test whether a product retains customers and pricing power as competing models improve.
  4. Measure audience trust. Ask readers what makes them trust a story, then track whether visible reporting and corrections affect engagement and retention.

What to watch

  • Whether bond yields rise enough to lift financing costs and constrain policy.
  • Whether private equity exits return cash that investors can commit again.
  • Whether language models keep meaningful pricing power as competitors and open-weight options improve.

Send this to a CFO or product leader budgeting AI and refinancing risk.

24:22

Watch the minute where Sorkin says rates were close to five

Written by Real Alpha from the episode's transcript and the other moments it links, then checked against the transcript. Quotes are the speaker's exact words.

Minute by minute

  1. 4:21Kalshi hires Trump Jr

    Scott Galloway treats Kalshi’s appointment of Donald Trump Jr. as nepotism and argues that firms may seek political access under the incoming administration. Ed Elson compares it with Hunter Biden’s role at a Ukrainian energy company, arguing that elected officials’ children should not sell access. Galloway says companies may view aligning with the administration as a way to protect shareholder value.

  2. 8:44Tipping prompts breed resentment

    The headline reports that the average full-service restaurant tip fell to 19.3%; 38% of consumers said they tipped 20% or more, down from 56% in 2021. Elson says ubiquitous digital prompts make tipping feel like a tax. Galloway says he likes tipping but stops adding a tip when a service charge is already included. The hosts also criticize a GoFundMe prompt that defaults to a 14% tip for donations under $200.

  3. 14:09Fire risk strains insurance

    Galloway says rebuilding could make Pacific Palisades highly desirable, but fire risk and construction materials will shape the insurance market. He says California’s FAIR plan has almost half a trillion dollars in exposure, up 61% year over year, with about $200 million in cash and $2.5 billion in reinsurance. He argues taxpayers should not have to subsidize people who choose to live in fire-prone areas.

  4. 17:55Climate and fire response

    Elson says climate change has been empirically shown to catalyze wildfires; he cites 2024 as the hottest year recorded, 2023 as the second hottest, and U.S. wildfires doubling in 40 years. Galloway says the specific role of climate change in these fires is not yet known and argues that the immediate priority should be saving lives and property. He credits government and community efforts with protecting lives despite extensive property loss.

  5. 23:53Bond yields may constrain Trump

    Sorkin says inflation, tariffs and AI will shape the next four years. He points to rates near 5% despite expectations that they would be in the 2s, and says the bond market could constrain the administration if investors demand higher returns to buy U.S. bonds. That would raise borrowing costs across the economy.

  6. 26:18U.S. stocks look expensive

    Galloway notes that U.S. stocks account for half of global market capitalization and trade at a price-to-earnings ratio in the 30s. Sorkin says he does not expect investment flows to reverse away from the U.S. in the next year, calling it the cleanest shirt in the hamper, but says valuations are high and seem priced for perfection after strong market years in 2023 and 2024.

  7. 28:10Private equity is stuck

    Sorkin says private equity is close to broken because firms have made few exits and pension funds have little cash to commit while their money remains tied up. He says venture-backed companies are staying private longer, while private equity firms have held assets rather than sell at multiples they do not like. He questions whether some private valuations reflect the public market.

  8. 31:42Investors weigh Trump trade risks

    Sorkin says investors are watching the 10-year Treasury note because higher yields raise costs for businesses that rely on credit. He says optimism after Trump’s election reflected hopes for less regulatory restraint on technology companies, as well as expectations for more dealmaking. He reports hearing that bankers and lawyers were working to get deals announced before the new administration.

  9. 35:12AI models may lose their moat

    Sorkin favors chips, infrastructure and energy as AI demand grows, but questions whether large language models can sustain their valuations if they become commoditized. He points to xAI building a competitive model in about a year and asks whether models will become features or leave other businesses without a defensible moat. Galloway frames the valuation gap by citing revenue multiples of 0.5 to 3 for consumer and retail companies, 6 for SaaS, and 60 to 80 for OpenAI and Anthropic.

  10. 39:39A TikTok sale raises questions

    Sorkin says a sale of TikTok to Elon Musk would be ironic after Democrats had supported a ban, and he notes that some Republicans might also oppose Musk gaining control. He raises questions about concentration of power and what a China-only-to-Musk sale would imply about China’s leverage through Musk’s Tesla business and factories there.

  11. 41:22Musk and Trump share incentives

    Sorkin says he does not know whether Musk is compromised, but doubts that the relationship with Trump will end quickly. He says Trump needed Musk’s money before the election, while Musk now needs the president given his businesses, particularly SpaceX and Tesla. Sorkin argues that their incentives make it difficult for Musk to separate himself from Trump.

  12. 42:46Legacy media must defend trust

    Galloway argues that traditional media’s fact-checking and liability standards put it at a disadvantage against social media, where false claims can spread without similar checks. Sorkin says established news organizations can still offer credibility and fund reporting, while citizen journalism can be useful. He warns that sensational false stories often get attention before corrections do.

  13. 46:54Trust depends on good faith

    Sorkin says audiences may trust journalists not because every statement is accurate, but because they believe the journalists are acting in good faith and have done the work. He says legacy media must connect more directly with readers and viewers, and that large media companies will need to gather trusted people with direct audience relationships. He sees the need for trust as an opportunity for journalism.

  14. 50:00Journalism remains Sorkin’s core

    Sorkin names former New York Times advertising columnist Stewart Elliott as a professional hero because he knew his field deeply and held it accountable. Sorkin says reporting remains the core of his work and that news may still offer business opportunities, including with AI. He is less sure that entertainment can generate the same returns as it once did, given streaming’s effect on the business.

Published Jan 16, 2025.

Transcript · 44 min read

Prof G Markets, hosted by Scott Galloway and Ed Elson, with Andrew Ross Sorkin.

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there. Where the podcast’s audio and the video part ways, some times are a minute or so off.

  1. That's the record amount Brits spent on music last year, which includes subscription and vinyl. People in the UK haven't spent this much on music since 2001, when CD sales peaked. Ed, just another story about British media. What did the American say when he was watching the UK porno? The British are coming. The British are coming. Oh, it's funny because it's simple. Welcome to Prop G Markets. This episode is presented by Funrise. You can't imagine they're going to stick around for long. And we're speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin. This will be the last time he's here after he hears that. Editor-at-large of DealBook.

  2. at the New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC's Squatbox. And I would argue, I think, well, I'm curious, I think he and Anderson Cooper are the two most trusted journalists in the world right now. Your thoughts? I think Andrew Ross Sorkin might beat him out on that. Anderson's got the CNN mark. A lot of people don't like CNN, but CNBC is pretty neutral. Yeah, Anderson's so dreamy, though. He is dreamy. Andrew's pretty dreamy as well, though. He's a good-looking guy, too. Yeah. It's a close competition. How are you, Scott? I'm great. I'm back in New York, excited to be here. I was in... I think I told you I was at the Faena in Miami for a while.

  3. Yeah, what were you doing there? I had a conference Friday at Jeffrey's in Boca, and then I just fell off the wagon. I haven't been drinking, and I just went— You're doing dry jam? Well, I'm not doing dry jam. I'm doing trying to drink less, Scott. And I just totally slipped, and I went out. I went to Palm Beach, got fucked up, had the best time, and I'm like, oh, my God. When you went out to Palm, you would have had to, like, take maybe a serious drive there, you know, just sort of slip out to Palm Beach, right? Well, I was in Boca. I was in Boca, and I was going to go to Miami, and I didn't have anything going on in Miami.

Read the whole transcript
  1. And then a friend of mine said, oh, we're having dinner in Palm Beach. And then I ran into another guy. I'm one name-dropped I'm dying to because they're both really cool, famous people. Please do. I can't do it. I've been doing too much for it lately. Elon Musk. Got it. Okay. Yeah. And then I went down to Miami. and Saturday night, I'm like, oh my God, this alcohol thing. I forgot how great this alcohol thing is. And I went out with my friend Pablo Doritos and we went to this great restaurant called Sparrow Italia, which actually has a London sister, which I didn't know about. I had a great time there. And then I went to Houston yesterday for a hot minute. Not as much fun, not as much fun. And I was there for a total of like 90 minutes. And I made this, I spoke in front of this great organization that brings together event planners. And you can imagine when event planners are at an event, they're so cheery and so nice and so mutually supportive. And I was their keynote. And I got up and the woman came out at the end and asked me a question. And I broke into my song about young men and mentoring. And I immediately got, you know, I was jet lagged and upset and hung over. And I go, Michael Jackson and the Catholic Church have fucked it up for all of

  2. us and men want to be involved in young men's lives and it doesn't mean there's anything wrong with them and she was sort of like okay that's sort of and then unfortunate programming note immediately following me was the houston boys latino choir and i'm like did i just talk about pedophilia before like nine eight-year-olds rolled out here to sing and it was so i'm literally like That was poor programming on that part. No, no. You don't follow Scott Galloway with a choir. Yeah, and I'm sitting back in the green room with my head in my hands and they're supposed to have this like VIP guy. gathering for me where I sign books, I'm like, no one's going to come to my VIP gathering.

  3. Anyway, so let's get to work and make some money here. Get on with the news, Ed. Now is the time to buy. I hope you have plenty of the well at all. Prediction market Kalshi has named Donald Trump Jr. as its new advisor. The company said Trump Jr. will play a key role in expanding its reach and building strategic partnerships. Tipping in America has hit a six-year low, with the average tip at full-service restaurants falling to 19.3%. Meanwhile, only 38% of consumers reported tipping restaurants 20% or more, and that's down from 56% of consumers in 2021. And finally, the wildfires in Los Angeles could become the most expensive in U.S. history, with total economic losses estimated to reach up to $275 billion.

  4. Analysts have estimated that insured losses from the fire could exceed $30 billion. Scott, your thoughts, starting with Kalshi, the prediction market, hiring Don Jr. to the board. Well, I mean, he's a very thoughtful, experienced business person who brings a lot of gravitas and insight to platforms and technology companies. So I just think this is a great—look, this is more kleptocracy. and people would throw back in my face, well, okay, now do Hunter Biden. Yeah, I don't think it's, like, it's not that unusual. It's not that big a story. Obviously, Don has, Don Jr., through no fault of his own, has very strong political connections.

  5. It's pure nepotism, but we live in a world of nepotism. You know, Donald Trump Jr. going on the board of Kelsey, who gives a fuck? I don't, you know, put a jacket on and go to Greenland. I don't, I don't care. I think what I found strange was, I mean, you made the comparison to Hunter Biden, which I think is the correct one. But I find it strange that you're framing it as like a defense of Don Jr. When in reality, I mean, these guys have been criticizing Hunter Biden for years about the time when he was an advisor to this energy company in Ukraine. And I've always thought that criticism was completely valid.

  6. We shouldn't be having the children of elected officials selling access to their parents. Well, here we are a week before Inauguration Day. That's exactly what Don Jr. is doing. So I think the comparison to Don Jr. and Hunter Biden is the correct one. He is the new Hunter. But that's not a defense of Don Jr. I mean, these guys shouldn't be doing this in the first place. But at the same time, credit to Kalshi in my view, because as I've said over and over, if you can buy access to this administration, it is your fiduciary duty to do that. Because as you've said, this economy is turning into a kleptocracy.

  7. And I think CEOs need to get wise on that and figure out how to capitalize on that if they want to create shareholder value. Well, look at this. Unusual Machines, a drone parts manufacturer, and PSQ Holdings, an anti-woke e-commerce platform, popped more than 200 percent, tripled, after adding Donald Trump Jr. to their boards post-election. I mean, shares of Liberty Energy surged 12 percent the week after Trump named its CEO, Chris Wright, as his energy secretary. Tesla surged over 60 percent between the election and the end of 2024. I mean, and it's a race to the bottom. What are you going to see?

  8. You're going to see Democrats and other people say, fuck it. I'm going to put my family members on boards under the auspices of – and they can buy stocks. And by the way, our elected representatives, Speaker Pelosi, can still buy stocks because the punishment is almost nonexistent. If you could make tens of millions of dollars investing in a defense contractor the day before it's publicly announced that they're about to get an enormous contract to build multibillion-dollar nuclear-class submarines, tell your husband to go buy it and he says, well, isn't that illegal? Yeah, but we're not – we're not – so what?

  9. We'll be out of here. We'll be out of here by the time it's illegal and we'll have to pay. We'll get slapped on the risk and nobody cares. The guys at the SEC are our friends anyway. And nobody cares because – and Pam, the attorney general, is not going to go after any Republican. And nobody cares because everybody instead is looking at the real, you know, all-caps kleptocracy on Pennsylvania Avenue. So this is a downward spiral where we all – no one wants to disarm unilaterally. No one wants to not engage in tax avoidance to be a good guy or good gal. They're like, well, everyone else is doing it.

  10. I'm going to do it. Let's go to this tipping story where tipping is declining. And Lois, it's been six years in America. I find this so interesting because the whole point of all of these digital tipping platforms that you see at the coffee shop, you know, those tablets where it gives you all of your options, the whole pitch with those technologies was that it was going to make tipping easier. It was going to make it frictionless, seamless, etc. theory, that should have increased tipping. But it's so fascinating that like many other technologies, it's actually having the opposite effect. Instead, because everywhere we go, we get this prompt to tip, it's made people resentful of tipping. And now instead of feeling that you don't want to thank your server, it feels like you're just paying this tax.

  11. And so in response to all of that negative sentiment around tipping, it looks like tipping is actually now decreasing. So what is your reaction to this decline in tipping and perhaps tipping culture is ending in America? It's really interesting. And I can't figure out if it's an indicator on the economy where people just don't feel as generous because they're having to tighten their belts. Sure, that's part of it. Or as you said, it's a cultural or it's pushed back on the zeitgeist. I was at Heckfield Place, which I love, and I spent time there with my dogs and my boys. In my bill, I stayed there for the better part of a week. My bill was 5,500 pounds, which is a lot of money. And I saw this 550-pound charge that said service charge. And I said, what's a service charge? And they said, well, it's a gratuity for the staff. And they said, but it's optional. And I'm like, well, it's not optional if you didn't point it out. I have to ask about it. It's uncomfortable for me to say to you, to ask you what it is. And they said, the only problem would take it off. And I'm like, I'm a big boy. I know how to tip people. I'm not afraid to tip people. And as a matter of fact, because I grew up in services jobs, ranging from

  12. box boy to waiter to bartender to parking cars, I love to tip. It's fun. It makes me feel strong. I'm an outstanding tipper. The moment I see service charged included, that's it. I'm done. I don't, nothing more. Because my attitude is, well, if you have decided the service was excellent, and it used to be the general rule is 15%, so 20% was for good slash great service. I did not know that. When did it change? When I was a kid, the general math you did was 15%. Wow. And in Europe, you remember. In Europe, it's like 10. Yep, they didn't tip it. Or nothing, yeah. In Europe, when I was your age, the general consent, if you had a restaurant, you'd leave like some change.

  13. You wouldn't tip 10%. No way. You'd leave a few shillings or quid or whatever the fuck you guys call your monkey money. I don't think anyone was giving shillings back then. It happens. What do they call it? Unfortunately, you'd like to think, and there's probably some truth to this, it's increased wages at the low end. And at the low end, you have seen a dramatic increase in wages post-COVID. But not because anyone's more ethical about it, but because people have decided, I have had it with the general public. And if you want me to work at Panera, you better pay me 20 bucks an hour, not 12, right?

  14. People have had it. If I got to wear a mask to work and be one of the few people that actually has to get my ass out of bed and get into work, they've had to pay. And this is a wonderful thing. They have to pay more money. But what I worry about, and I'm wondering if there's any data on this, it's a transfer of wealth mostly to the host institution that is now paying people less because they say you're making more in tips, and so they're paying them less. So I don't— Oh, definitely. Let's stop calling it tip. Let's just say it's a charge, and you have no choice. It's not a tip. Right. And I do find it obnoxious when I'm getting a coffee and they just flip it around and then stare at you.

  15. And it's like, you know, it's like 20%, 30% are herpes. You pick. I mean, it's like, okay, what am I supposed to do here? But that's not the barista's fault. That's Square's fault for making those the default options or the restaurant's fault. 100%. And now we have to take it out on the baristas. And, you know, you look at that look on their face and you assume it's them who's imposing this tax on you. It's not them. Well, here, and this is my latest pet peeve, tipping is now even offered as an option on GoFundMe on top of transaction fees. The transaction automatically defaults to a 14% tip for any donation under $200.

  16. And I've been looking at, again, I'm never one to not virtue signal. I'm doing a bunch of GoFundMes for people in Los Angeles. it is so they take such extraordinary fees 14 default tip is what gofundme is charging it so in in other words this is like a huge business opportunity and let's let's use this as a way to segue into the la fires headline this is like a huge business for them but wait real quick let's change let's let's let's just do some branding here instead of gofundme i want to say oh i'm doing a go fuck yourself good people at gofundme let's wrap ourselves in a virtue blanket as we charge people to get money to people suffering from the fires and call it a tip i just can't believe that who are we tipping tips are for servers not for software engineers who exactly are we tipping yeah exactly that's all i have to say on the gofundme point but what is your reaction to just all of the amounting damages that are piling up in la right

  17. Scott Galloway · 4 min

    “I don't think taxpayers in California should have to bail out people who decide it's their birthright to live in fire-prone areas.”

  18. anyways what are your thoughts the thing i've been obsessing over maybe wrongly but i've just been thinking about a lot is this dei conversation that this has created elon saying that this is you know all a result of dei programs he said dei means people die people calling the mayor of la a diversity hire basically this big conversation that the reason this has all happened and the reason it was not managed as it should have been managed is that we have all these dei policies and it's making California terrible.

  19. You know, there's such a simple explanation for why this has all happened. And the answer is climate change. 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history. The next hottest year in history was 2023. So the earth is rapidly overheating. It's resulting in droughts, mass heat waves, and yes, wildfires. And this isn't like a question of correlation. This is pure causation. This has been empirically proven to be a catalyst of wildfires. And that is why we've seen the number of wildfires in the U.S. double in the past 40 years. So I think this is an important moment for America because we have a choice again.

  20. Do we want to subscribe to this cultic religion? anti-DEI, which has totally devolved into groupthink? You know, it's the same groupthink that the entire movement was supposed to dismantle in the first place. Or do we want to actually do the research and figure out what the problems in our society actually are? And in this case, it's very, very simple. If you do the research, you will come to a conclusion quite swiftly, this was a direct result of the Earth getting too hot. Well, just as the pendulum on a clock, you can never visually spot it at the bottom, at the middle. America has become unable to spot nuance and have any middle ground.

  21. But when you immediately leap to bigotry and hate field invective around a tragedy and you use it as a means of separating people. Or if you use it as a means to just completely not address the elephant in the room, which is the fact that climate change is causing mass wildfires around the world. I mean, the fact that the conversation has not been about climate change is crazy, because this is like, what worst situation do we need to be thrown into our faces to basically tell us, OK, we should probably start to take this thing seriously? What you're doing is a bit of the same, but it's Diet Coke. It's not as mendacious.

  22. And that is you're leaping to an assumption. I think the thesis that climate change played a role here is a fair thesis. But the honest answer is we don't know yet. No, we know. It's possible that this might have happened without climate change. Now, having said that, nine out of 10 superfires in California in the last century have taken place in the last 10 years. Something is going on. But what I would argue is in the middle of a crisis, it's not helpful to go there, nor is it helpful to go to bigotry under DEI. Where should we go? Where is this conversation, in your view, supposed to be going. All eyes, all efforts, all hands on deck should be to the following.

  23. How do we save lives and property? And what people don't want to acknowledge about this crisis or isn't getting enough news is that the job of the government and of the community is to save lives and property in that order. And while 13,000 houses have been destroyed and there'll be massive economic loss and there's a reckoning, a time to look at it, if the government and the community's responsibility is to protect lives. They've done an A-plus fucking job here. And that doesn't get... any recognition. So my thinking around this stuff is I've tried not to go on social as I do a lot and assign Blaine and use it as a means of cementing, sanctifying, validating my political beliefs. I think climate change is real. But to be focused on, all right, what can we do to be as supportive as possible, get people out of harm's way, try and reduce these fires, bring attention to the incredible aerial firefighters.

  24. And by the way, I'm announcing our next trip and event, our next live whatever is going to be in Los Angeles. We are going to LA. Me and Scott are buying a house in Pacific Palisades and we're going to live together. We're in Pacific Palisades. We'll be right back after the break for our conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin. And if you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Prof G Markets wherever you get your podcasts. to make informed decisions. AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance utilizes a Yahoo Scout powered assistant to build a personalized view around exactly what you want to analyze, then syncs it with your portfolio for real-time tracking. You can compare multiple tickers, explore everything from candlesticks and line charts to fundamental data and layer in indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and more. So I'm in that space in between what I'd call your standard retail investor and a hedge fund manager. I think a lot about stocks, I spend a lot of time managing my money.

  25. I advise hedge funds. This suits me perfectly. I want something more robust, better charting, that's AI-enabled, that I can ask questions, that I can create baskets of stocks to track, and it has the same intuitive visual feel that I really like from Yahoo. You can explore Alphaspace with 50% off your first year of Yahoo Finance Gold at yahoofinance.com slash prop g. That's yahoofinance.com slash prop g. Billed is $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter. For new subscribers in the U.S., cancel anytime. Offer ends December 31st, 2026. Welcome back. Here's a conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, editor-at-large of DealBook at The New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box. Andrew, thank you so much for joining us on Prof. G Markets. Thank you for having me. As you know, I'm a huge Scott fan and I'm a huge Ed fan. So here we are. You're an ad fan. That's amazing. So I just want to start with

  26. Andrew Ross Sorkin · 3 min

    “the only potential governor on them is oddly enough the bond market”

  27. I get to see you, Andrew. So U.S. stocks now represent half of total market cap globally. They're trading, I think, a P in the 30s. They're sort of at a store. It's historically expensive right now. Do you think there's a chance 2025 might be the year we see sort of the rivers reverse? We might see flows out of the U.S., out of tech into non-U.S. markets?

  28. I think we've been waiting for that for a long time. And so I fear that if I tell you this is the year, I probably would have told you this was the year in 21, in 22, in 23, in 24, in 25. We are, what do they say? What's the phrase? We're the cleanest shirt in the hamper. In the hamper. I think we are still probably in a better place than much of the rest of the world. I don't see that actually reversing itself in the next year necessarily, but I do think these valuations are clearly, you know, I don't know if they're at the top, top of the range, but they are high. it is very hard to not to look around and go, this whole situation is relatively priced for perfection. And then you start to think about all the things that could go wrong. And you look at the fact just historically that, you know, we just had a banner a year in the stock market, 24, go back to 23, same thing. And so at some point, just history will tell you that it's got to go and it should go the other way. I remember many, many years ago, this is actually during the financial crisis, Jamie Dimon's daughter, who I think was in high school at the time, said to him, Daddy, what's a financial crisis? And he said, it's something that happens every eight years.

  29. Well, if that's the case, we're long overdue. Yeah, it's nuts. What trends, if any, do you see?

  30. Andrew Ross Sorkin · 4 min

    “Every year you're marking up these investments as if they're worth more, but you haven't exited.”

  31. Yeah. Just in the theme of getting kind of a temp check on Wall Street, we've seen a somewhat significant decline in the markets over the past few weeks. at least the headline this week, is that the S&P 500 has erased almost all of its gains since Trump was elected. How do you think investors on Wall Street are feeling right now going into Inauguration Day? We talked a little bit about what you're paying attention to, but what do you think they are paying attention to right now?

  32. I think they're paying a lot of attention to the 10-year note, which, as I said, has gone up, which means that our costs are going to go up, and that becomes more complicated for just about any business that relies on any type of credit. And frankly, the entire economy, if you think about it like that. I think there was a lot of excitement, as you know, in the fall about this sort of idea that Trump was going to come in and this Trump trade and all of that. And, you know, at some point, I think people actually started to think, like think clearly or a little more clearly about just what kind of challenges and headwinds we face. And they're real. And I think there was almost a, I don't want to say a delusion, but there was lots of commentary about the complications of what was going to come next after Biden, what Trump could bring, what he couldn't bring. And the market for the most part, most people in the markets, I think, are professional optimists. They have to be. And by the way, being optimistic has been a good thing over time. It's very hard to be a short seller. You know, I'm a journalist.

  33. I'm supposed to be a professional skeptic. So it's sort of. I'm at almost at odds with this whole sort of theory of the case. But I do think that there was an optimism. I think there still is an optimism. I don't want to say the optimism has gone away, but I think there's a recognition that by default, there's going to be greater challenges. Yeah, what do you think was that optimism when he was elected? I mean, you talked about the Trump trade. We've gone over a few of those in the past. Maybe the defense industry was something that could be a beneficiary of this administration. But what was fueling that optimism, do you think, in the markets? Was it sort of a regulatory optimism? Was it just, we have a new lease on life in America? What fueled that? I think it's probably best represented by the view of what Scott has talked about on this broadcast and in other places, sort of the tech bros.

  34. this view that, you know, Silicon Valley was being reined in by Washington, D.C., they're being reined in by the European Union, that all of a sudden they were going to have someone who had their back. Now, it's very hard to quantify what that actually means, but all of a sudden, but the concept was that the Lena Kahn's of the world and the Gary Gensler's running the SEC were going to be completely hands-off or a lot more hands-off and that they were going to be able to do lots more things that they have been up until now unable to do. I don't know if that's true. And I really don't know how you quantify that. And I think that's the hardest part. So you had, I think, people, this sort of animal spirits excitement period. I also think, by the way, mergers and acquisitions, there's going to be a lot more dealmaking over the next couple of years. There's no question the backlog, the pipeline that I hear from talking to bankers and lawyers who are working literally around the clock right now, trying to actually get deals announced, even today, knowing that in two weeks, it's going to be a different administration. That's real.

  35. I want to pivot just for a moment to a sector you must be talking so much about on CNBC and

  36. Andrew Ross Sorkin · 4 min

    “And what does that say about the defensibility and the sort of the moat around the large language models?”

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  38. describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data. Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals. Ready to rule your business? Head to rippling.ai slash markets to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization. That's r-i-p-p-l-i-n-g dot a-i slash markets. Sign up for exclusive access today. We're back with Prof G Markets. Yeah, I just want to pivot us to TikTok, which is on the chopping block right now. It's set to be banned before Trump is inaugurated.

  39. And now there are rumors that it's going to be sold to Elon Musk. This is apparently what Beijing officials are talking about. I'd just love to get your view. Do you have any thoughts on how this TikTok saga will play out? Well, the idea that it would be sold to Elon Musk I think is fascinating. There's a great irony in that, in that, by the way, there were a lot of Democrats that were pushing to have TikTok banned, if you remember. And so all of a sudden, this would get pushed into the hands of elon musk um and whatever algos they are running um you know or that he's running i i think they wouldn't ultimately be happy with at the same time i think there are republicans i'm thinking of steve bannon and others uh you know even with the party that would say they don't want Elon Musk having control of these things. There's probably, you know, an even larger question about just concentration and power. And I don't know where a Donald Trump would land there. And then to layer on top of all of that, there's a real question, which is if China is prepared to sell to Elon Musk and only to Elon Musk, what does that say about the leverage and influence that China must think that they have over Elon Musk by dint

  40. of his factories and Tesla business in the nation state that is China. And then it probably raises a whole secondary order of questions, which is if China feels this way, how should we as Americans feel that people are calling him the co-president of the United States? Yes, exactly. Yeah. How do you think that dynamic between Elon Musk and President Trump will play out? I think this is a big question many of us are asking ourselves. Scaramucci, who we had on, says Elon's going to get stabbed in the back and then he's going to be thrown out. I mean, that's his view on anyone who works with Trump. But it is beginning to maybe feel that way. The more that people say that Elon Musk is our co-president and the more that people might assume that, as you're pointing out, perhaps he's compromised in certain ways because of his ties to China. How do you think that relationship with Trump will play out? First of all, I don't know if he's compromised or not.

  41. I like to think the best of folks. I do want to say that. All of these people, there's like a betting line on how quickly this relationship is going to end. I actually don't think it ends so quickly and I'm not sure it ends at all. And the reason is prior to the election, Trump actually needed Elon. By the way, he needed Elon's money, right? That was what tied them together. Now that Trump is president. Elon needs Trump, given his businesses, both Tesla, particularly SpaceX and the like. So I think that there's lots of, you know, if you always just follow the money and think about the incentives, you have to say to yourself that Elon would want to align himself with the president now. And I think it would actually be hard to extricate himself, meaning if the president pushes him away, that's a problem for him.

  42. Yeah. So I was on your sister network, MSNBC, and I said that... You were awesome, by the way. I watched it. Oh, thanks, Andrew. And I loved it. And I'm not pandering. you. You were so good. Go on. Anyways, the part you probably didn't see because MSNBC clipped it was I said that for the first time in a nation's history, a 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents, which is why we put an insurrectionist and a rapist in office in the White House. And Mika took the time at the end of the show to fact check me and said he was found liable of sexual abuse. I think she was doing her job. What I said was technically inaccurate, and she did her job. If I had said that, if they had posted the full clip on social media, social media would have loved it and circulated it, and they would have made more money. But instead, traditional media, Comcast, under the auspices of being sued, has to hire bright people to fact check me. And I appreciate it. I get it wrong all the time and not put it out there. And as a result, traditional media under the quote unquote auspices of moderation or censorship, if you're left or right, is shrinking because their means of production and fact checking, they're basically trying to run a race with one foot tied behind their back.

  43. And meanwhile, social media is playing tennis without a net. So there's a long-winded way and a word salad of asking, what do you think of this decision to no longer moderate or censor from meta? And are you worried that traditional media just can't compete when they are subject to a set of standards and liability that the medium where two-thirds of people now get their news no longer needs to fact-check, no longer needs to have anything resembling liability? I mean, quite frankly, let me put it this way. Isn't Comcast just fucked? Well, I hope not, and I don't think so. I actually do think that people come to establish news organizations that hopefully do have credibility.

  44. And I know people have lots of questions about it. No, and I recognize that. I recognize that. But I think that there's a distinction between journalists who hopefully are trying to act in good faith and institutions that can put resources behind real news gathering. I mean, you go look at this LA wildfire and some of the folks who've been out there on the ground. Now, you could argue. that there's classic sort of legacy traditional news reporters out there doing that work. And then there's all sorts of other people. Some of it is great citizenry journalism, right? And you're seeing it right off the phone. And that's great. And some others are making up stuff left and right.

  45. And the big question that I have is, as a society, just how we're going to contend with that piece of it. If we are not holding the social media companies effectively accountable for some form of truth, and again, I know there's debates about what truth is today, but right now the sky is blue here in New York. No, it's not. It's DEI. But that's the point. If we can't agree that the sky is blue, if we can't agree the sky is blue today and there is not a cloud in the sky, we've got a problem. And so I think on the basics, We need to actually at least make sure that those things are taken care of.

  46. They are not today. And clearly the worst part is that the most sensational news, which is often wrong, gets the most attention. And by the time there's even an opportunity to, quote unquote, correct it, nobody sees it. And that is, to me, the scariest part about what's happening in the social media sphere. But this has been a perennial problem for more than a decade now. I've been thinking about this a lot as someone who is kind of in the media, especially now that we've got Trump coming in on January 20th. I've been trying to think about how to maintain trust and how to just stay on top of this cultural shift that really antagonizes people like you.

  47. And I feel like you're kind of the most, in my view, the most sober, um you're the most sober figure in the traditional legacy establishment media engine whatever we want to call it and so i was very interested to hear just how you are dealing with that and perhaps if you have a plan or if you have any ideas for how you're going to deal with the news in the next four years you know look ultimately i think this is an issue it's it's it's this age-old question of trust and who do you trust and i think that actually one of the things that this medium by the way podcasts and social media and everything else as uh while social media can undo trust very quickly you can also create trust and clearly has created trusted brands and trust people. And I think that, I hate the word authentic, but I do think that you, Ed, and Scott are super authentic and the people who follow you, if you will, genuinely trust you. And it's not necessarily that they trust every word that you're saying is accurate. They trust, hopefully, that they believe that what you're saying is in good faith. It's that you believe what you're saying is true, that you've done the homework, that you've thought about these things, that you've

  48. spent time with other smart people debating these things. And so while they may not agree with your conclusion, they look at both of you and say, these guys are trying, right? And I think that matters. I think the traditional legacy media business needs to do, we all need to do a better job of connecting with the reader, viewer, listener in that way. Because oftentimes, I think in the sort of TV business or in the newspaper business, it comes across as more two-dimensional, right? You're reading it on a page, you're seeing it in TV with bright lights and fancy graphics and all sorts of stuff happening. And it's harder to connect in that way. But I do, look, I'm somebody, when I read a newspaper today or watch a television, I'm usually reading the byline, meaning I read the byline, then I decide whether I'm going to continue with the story. And I think big media companies are now trying to hopefully, and will have to continue to try to collect, they have to become people collectors. They're going to have to collect the trusted people that have those relationships with an audience one last question for me um if it wasn't clear you are one of my heroes professionally you know when i think about how

  49. i'd like my career to end up you're sort of one of the first people uh that comes to mind my final question uh to you do you have any heroes of your own is there anyone you look up to professionally with someone who you have drawn inspiration from so many people um you know i started my career at the new york times when i was 18 years old i think scott knows this story working for a guy named stewart elliott uh who is still my hero he was the advertising columnist at the new york times and what he had I don't know. was what I just described, trust with a particular audience. At the time, he covered the advertising industry, but that industry read him like a religion.

  50. They believed in what he was writing because he was so in it. He was so deep in it. And he demonstrated his care for the art of it and how much he both loved that world, but also held that world accountable. And I think people really, you could feel that. By the way, Scott is going to think I'm pandering to him. I remember when Scott, long before he was a podcaster and a great speaker and a great writer, he was trying to take on the New York Times, actually, as an activist investor. Do you remember this, Scott, back in the day? Yeah, I remember, Andrew. You remember. And I have watched with great admiration and more than that, actually, the career that Scott's had and what he's been able to do and describe in sort of the public space as almost a public intellectual.

  51. I don't know if you think of yourself as a public intellectual, Scott, but I think you've forced and created lots of important conversations and discourse in this country that has been super important. So, you know, it's not a long list, but there's a couple of people who I've really admired. By the way, authors. There's some great authors that I've admired and TV writers and all sorts of things. So just before I get to my last question, this is a true story. I was on the board of the New York Times and we go over compensation for the top people in succession plan. And this was in 2008. So what, 17 years ago. So you must have been like five. I don't know how old you were, but you were a big name.

  52. I feel like 29, maybe 30. 29, 30, probably. And your name came up. And everyone we were talking about, I guess, they were thinking about giving you some role, and we were trying to cut costs or whatever it was. And someone brought up your name. And I'm not exaggerating. Everyone around the table, from the publisher, Arthur Sulzberger, to Janet Rodman, just to every board member went, pay him whatever he wants. Everyone was like, this kid is our LeBron James. It's like the entire boardroom was... Pay him. Everyone's like, fuck him. Cut her salary 20%. Let her walk. Let her go to the pub. Oh, that kid? Pay him whatever he wants. I love that. You were literally the Cole Palmer of journalism.

  53. Anyway, my last question. I think of you as an entrepreneur. You've started kind of these businesses within platforms, and you've got obviously media, you've got TV, you've got newsletters, you've got events, you do books. if you were to pick kind of one business or which businesses are you planning to over-invest in and which might you under-invest? Like what side of your business flywheel do you think holds the most potential for you? And which do you think are probably going to decline in terms of your own human capital? That's such a great question. I imagine, look, I still think that journalism is the core of everything I do, interviewing people, talking to people, reporting into the night, working the phones last night on the TikTok story and trying to talk to insiders who are involved. And I still think that is, for me, the coin of the realm. And that's where I learn the most. And that ultimately infuses any kind of side project, whether it be a book or a TV show or this or that so i you know i to me that is always in my career i think going to be the core i would have told you a decade ago that you know the entertainment space seemed like that's where the the riches of the business might be because you know folks who were producing movies or

  54. television shows you know there was back-end points and this and that and all sorts of things I don't know whether, I think given streaming and just what's happened to that whole business, I'm not sure economically that that is, you know, Jerry Seinfeld, they say is, you know, made a billion dollars or whatever it is. I don't think that can be accomplished in the same way that it used to be. I think potentially that the news business could actually, especially with AI, I know everybody's scared of AI in the news business, And maybe it'll accrue only to, you know, a sort of a winners and losers cast.

  55. But I actually do think that there's still huge opportunity in journalism. especially because of this trust question. Because the trust question exists, I think it represents an opportunity from a business perspective and hopefully from a national discourse one too. Andrew Ross Sorkin is a financial columnist for the New York Times and the editor-at-large of Dealbook. He's also the co-anchor of Squawk Box, CNBC's signature morning program and the author of the best-selling book, Too Big to Fail. Andrew, it was an honor having you on. Thank you so much for joining us. It was an honor to be on. God bless you.

  56. And Ed's professional hero, I'm not jealous at all, but let's see if he pays your bonus bitch this year. Jesus Christ. Here you go. Andrew. I love you, man. Canadian spy. No one should forget that. Canadian spy. No one should forget that. Hold on. Now I thought I'm an American spy, part of the 51st state. That's right. Oh, there you go. Well played, sir. Touché. Touché. Andrew, we're obviously huge fans. Thanks so much for your time. Me too. I'll talk to you soon. Thanks. this episode was produced by claire miller and engineered by benjamin spencer our associate producer is alison weiss mia silverio is our research lead jessica lang is our research associate drew burrows is our technical director and katherine dylan is our executive producer thank you for listening to prof g markets from the vox media podcast network if you liked what you heard give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on monday

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