The labs may be strongest at financial engineering

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 48:59

   hey, that's that's undervalued or something you're like, oh, I don't know what's going to happen to that. I think coding agents are massively valuable. It's unclear to me how much of the actual use is truly valuable, like it being like net positive is different than it being worth all of the money put in that is probably a product question for them to figure out if they actually are truth seeking they probably have a better answer to this like did some people like just token max too hard or are they actually getting the relative value that spending that would make a difference on so i don't think i'm informed enough for that i have my guesses on what percentage gain coding agents are for various levels of projects and skills of engineer um and i wouldn't say that software is anywhere close to solved but that doesn't mean that they're not valuable i just

2. 49:47

   think that there needs to be like a pragmatic take here i think that it's possible that the coding i could see the coding agent market going either way like i could imagine going very up and very down very up in the sense that as people learn to actually get more value can people use it more i believe so i could imagine it going down because a lot of people have like overdone it because like there's so much fomo in the field and actually my sense of the state of ai is not that it's been like an upward exponential but a lot of like hills that keep going up down up down up down and then um eventually having like a little bit more uh at the tro trough trough of disillusionment i actually don't know how that word's pronounced the trough yeah yeah and then eventually it becomes like more stable usage and i think that you know like the the flatlining

3. 50:31

   revenue might be indicative of that people are like realizing that maybe they spent too much i think so from a product perspective i think that there will be better experts than me at that. I actually get the sense that the greatest strength of the labs is not models or product or distribution, but financial engineering. This is the thing that everyone who's like very veteran at the labs always talks about, where my understanding is they structure these deals in incredibly beneficial ways to not fuck themselves over, but fuck other people over who are taking the risk and trying to latch on to the rocket ship and are willing to accept whatever terms that would...

4. 51:15

   On the compute side? Yes, on all sorts of sides, but especially compute. I think that financial engineering, as far as I've heard, is their greatest strength. And I have no idea how much of a rat's nest that is and how vulnerable they would be to any which direction of the market going. You know, like a bubble can pop just because expectations are not met, not because it's not truly a transformative technology.

5. 51:43

   So I'm a little I try not to I try to be calibrated in my predictions. I try not to be overly confident when I have no privy information. And I would I'm I'm a more conservative person. I get this. A lot of the expectations baked in are ones that are not just product level, but based on, like, misunderstandings of the future of AI and what it can do. So my guess is that because some people might be valuing, like, building God is basically infinite, there will be some amount of miscalibration there. And I think that, you know, like, the let them cure cancer is going to be like Marie Antoinette's, like, let them eat cake.

6. 52:28

   oh that is a that is a good lot yeah i mean obviously maybe i maybe it didn't spicy then