Why Pfeiffer expects a larger wave than in 2018

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 1:03:13

   about the polls, that somehow the polls are wrong, that this is going to be 2016 or 2020. And I'd say a couple of things with that. One, a polling error is very possible. And you also don't need a polling error for us not to take the Senate. As I mentioned before, the polls could be right. And in a margin of error race, either outcome is within the range of possible outcomes. So the polls could be historically correct.

2. 1:03:40

   And Ashley Henson could win in Iowa because she's only down like two points in the polls, whatever it is, right? Same thing in basically in all of these states. We should not assume, and then second, I'd say it is worth noting that the polls are more accurate in midterms than general elections. Like that has been the case. The polls were relatively accurate in 2018 and 2022. I just would state again that we should not assume that every single polling error is bad for Democrats.

3. 1:04:11

   In fact, in 2022, in the individual states where the polls were off, half of them were off underestimating Democrats. And previously, like in 2012, the polls underestimated Barack Obama. Like that does happen. And it is possible that the pollsters are so worried about not counting Republican voters that they're waiting, they're overcompensating, waiting in the polls in the wrong direction. That is what happened in 2025 when in Virginia, there was a six-point error.

4. 1:04:37

   and in New Jersey, there was a 10-point error, all underestimating Democrats. I would say, put all the polls aside. Pretend there were no polls. And you had to predict sort of what's going to happen just based on the environment. Last time Donald Trump was president and there was a midterm election, it was 2018. The economy was doing quite well. He was only two years into his term. and there was no war in Iran.

5. 1:05:09

   He went into that midterm. He lost the popular by eight and a half points. Now, this is the second time he's been president where there's a midterm and there is a war going on in the Middle East that we are involved in that has spiked gas prices to a level that they have never been on election day in as long as we can remember. on top of inflation, on top of tariffs that have been also hurting consumers in a period where people's inflation has outpaced people's wages.

6. 1:05:46

   And if you put all that together and you think he lost by eight and a half points last time, it reasons, it stands to reason that this time around it would at least be eight and a half or more, but probably more. Yeah. Especially because now he's been president. I mean, think of everything that's happened between 2018 and now. There was the whole insurrection thing. And like we've seen, you know, his approval rating, even in the elections where he outperformed his polls worse than they were in 2018.

7. 1:06:19

   And so it's like just if you if you just put all the polls aside and you never looked at a poll and you looked at the map, you would think, yeah, he's going to do at least if not worse, at least as bad, if not worse and probably worse than 2018. when it was eight and a half points. If it's eight and a half points this time, does it guarantee that we win the Senate? No, because again, you need to like, some of these states are like double digit Trump wins.

8. 1:06:41

   But, you know, if it's 10 and a half points, like the Times-Siena poll has it nationally, yeah, that's probably enough to take the Senate. I mean, a blue wave is coming. It's just a question whether it's big enough