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Pod Save America · 4 min · Oct 30, 2026

Why Pfeiffer sees a wider Senate map for Democrats

Dan Pfeiffer

Dan Pfeiffer says Democrats have expanded their opportunities beyond four difficult states, while individual Senate races may break differently.

The episode’s best minutes

Full analysis
  1. 23:19Why Pfeiffer sees a wider Senate map for Democrats4 min
  2. 1:03:00Why Pfeiffer expects a larger wave than in 20184 min
  3. 4 more moments in the full episode
“the map is wider for Democrats, which just gives us more shots on goal, which is incredibly important.”
Dan Pfeifferat 25:02 · Pod Save America
25:02

Takeaways

  1. Pfeiffer says Democrats now have more competitive states to target.
  2. He argues the Senate races are not all likely to move together.
  3. He says different states hinge on different voter groups.

About this segment

Dan Pfeiffer says Democrats have expanded their opportunities beyond four difficult states, while individual Senate races may break differently. He argues state-specific demographics matter more than assuming a uniform national swing.

Dan Pfeiffer, Host

From “A Blue Wave is Coming for Trump. How Big Will It Be?”, Oct 30, 2026. Watch the full episode

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

  1. 23:31

    So I think the way to think about it is you take the House. If you just look at the seats that the Republicans have already conceded, it suggests they've basically conceded the majority and are now just trying to put up firewalls to stop Democrats from winning in hugely Republican districts and deep in Trump country. It is clear that the race has been actually remarkably steady for two months, But the trend has been growing momentum for Democrats and expansion of the map.

  2. 23:57

    Just today, Democrats put money into North Carolina 9, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson, who also happens to be the head of the NRCC, the Republican House campaign arm. So they're going after him. You also see Democrats making moves in New York 21, which Trump won by 21 points, which was Lee Stefanik's old district. So Democrat, like the map is moving in Democrats' direction.

  3. 24:21

    I think on the Senate, where I would put this is, all of the key races, the ones we care the most about, are within the margin of error. It's still that way. Yes, and that has been that way. Democrats have had a pretty steady lead in the polling averages in all of those states. That lead has not really grown in any way, shape, or form over the last couple of weeks. It's stayed the same. But it hasn't tightened.

  4. 24:43

    But it hasn't tightened. And you have to dig really deep to find any polls that show Republicans leading in any of the main races. But we started this cycle with this idea that somehow Democrats could possibly win two seats out of four deeply red states, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska. They can get the majority. What has changed in the last month is now we don't have to win 50% of those races because you also have, as possibly winnable races, South Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi, and Nebraska.

  5. 25:15

    So the map is wider for Democrats, which just gives us more shots on goal, which is incredibly important. Yeah, if you sort of look at all the polling in the last couple of weeks, I would say that in Michigan, at least the polling there shows Abdul sort of creeping up. Yeah, it's hard to say. There's been so many different polls of middle in quality that some of them have had a duel with bigger leads than we've seen anywhere.

  6. 25:42

    The CNN poll, which is a high-quality poll, had that today, seven points. But then a lot of other bad polls would have it, two points. Well, the Glenn Gariff poll, the CNN poll, there was another Detroit News poll that was not that, that was also the same. So that one's going good. Hasn't been a lot of polling out of Maine. Still wondering about that. But the Texas polls have just been like really steady.

  7. 26:07

    Yeah. Like I can't, I've lost kind of how many polls showed James Tallarico with like a two-point lead in Texas. Yeah. And the CNN poll had him up a little bit more today. Yeah. So I don't know. And then same thing with Ohio has been steady at two or three, but you're right. It's all within the margin of error. Yeah. But do you think these things break, is it more likely they all break one way? Or do you think that in a midterm like this, you really could see one state going one way for certain reasons and another going another way, even though they were both like two-point races in the polling up until now.

  8. 26:40

    In a presidential election, the states are highly correlated because it's the same two candidates in every case. That is not, the states are not as correlated in midterms. And you do have some geographic differences and some demographic differences among the electorate that does matter. Like the question in Texas is, is the Hispanic swing what we think it is? right? And if it is what we think it is, then James Alarico will win. If it is not, that doesn't tell you anything about what's likely to happen in Ohio, Alaska, or Iowa, right? South Carolina and Mississippi, very, Ohio is very dependent on high black turnout, right? That tells you a little bit less about Iowa and Alaska.

  9. 27:19

    Obviously, we don't like to dig into the early vote, which has disappointed us before reading