A ceasefire could leave Ukraine exposed to renewed attack

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 2:39:24

   Why won't Ukraine, why won't Russia just agree? Because ceasefires can often just become rearmament periods to renew hostilities. Ukraine is very vulnerable some months after a ceasefire. Eventually, it'll have to demobilize all the men at the front line who want to go back to their lives, to their families. Russia's force is largely contracted. Russia may not demobilize its force. And then Ukraine could be very vulnerable after a ceasefire.

2. 2:39:54

   It's signed six to eight months into it if there are no genuine security guarantees from the United States or anyone else. All they got was a piece of paper saying ceasefire, Russia had the opportunity to rearm, and the war is renewed. Except this time, Russia is in a much more advantaged position given how things developed after the ceasefire. And for those not familiar with this war, it starts in 2014.

3. 2:40:19

   And there were two failed ceasefires that never led to a political settlement, the first Minsk and the second Minsk agreement. And so naturally, those of us who are familiar with this history both want to see a ceasefire, but also wary that a ceasefire is just a piece of paper, those words on it, but doesn't lead to a lasting peace. And it's my concern that we will potentially see a third. duration of this war, that how this war ends takes us to the next one. And there are plenty of conflicts like this, wars between India and Pakistan, Arab-Israeli conflict, Armenia, Azerbaijan, where there are multiple wars in that series.

4. 2:40:53

   You're implying there's a low probability of success in the near term about the negotiation efforts. If it turns out that they are successful, what does that look like? What do you think? What is the the inkling of light as we search for some optimism that they are successful they get at least a partial ceasefire in place compartmentalizing this war ideally beginning with strikes against critical infrastructure by both sides maybe also in tradition strikes in the black sea okay and then maybe we start to see uh an agreement on a ceasefire for some period of days to then show both sides commitment to the fact that they want to engage in this political process in earnest.

5. 2:41:39

   You usually have to start somewhere and having a ceasefire lasting some period of days, a week, two weeks, a month, is that beginning. Right now, I don't see Russia there willing to agree to something like this. Because if they were, there's nothing that's been stopping them. That proposal's been on the table for a long time now. Their position is they don't want to agree to a ceasefire, They wish to settle all these complex, difficult issues, and only then will they offer a ceasefire. But the thrust of that position is they don't see a ceasefire and negotiations right now as a better alternative to fighting at the end of the day. And that's because Putin's perception of the situation, from my point of view, is different from ours, and also, I think, differs to some extent from objective reality, or at least I suspect that that's one of the inputs into his calculus.

6. 2:42:31

   If we look at longer-term future, what does Ukraine look like after Zelensky? What does Russia look like after Putin?