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Michael Kofman

Senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Led foundational research on Russia’s military and studies Ukrainian forces and Eurasian security at Carnegie.

Real Alpha has cut 8 moments of Michael Kofman (Senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) talking, from an interview on Lex Fridman Podcast published Nov 10, 2026.

What Michael Kofman said

    1. 24:47

      Offensive success depends on suppressing enemy drone units

      “And the side that is able to suppress the other side's drone units through drone strikes”
      at 27:19
    2. 1:03:21

      Analysts over-rationalized Russia's invasion plan Pro pick

      “I learned as an analyst that even if all the pieces kind of look right, people naturally want to believe it's anything other than that.”
      at 1:04:37
    3. 1:25:58

      Bakhmut's symbolic value outlasted its military value

      “the loss of Bakhmut wasn't nearly that critical at the end of the day.”
      at 1:27:37
    4. 1:34:51

      Russian battlefield reports can distort fire support

      “In some ways, we are fortunate that they have such a cultural falsification of battlefield data because they then organize fire support around lines and positions they don't actually hold.”
      at 1:38:23
    5. 2:39:20

      A ceasefire could leave Ukraine exposed to renewed attack

      “Ukraine is very vulnerable some months after a ceasefire. Eventually, it'll have to demobilize all the men at the front line”
      at 2:39:29
    6. 1:47:11

      Political leaders may ask how to delay defeat, not win

      “what is the amount of troops you need for me to kick this can down the road so that we don't lose the war on my watch?”
      at 1:50:35
    7. 2:06:24

      The Russian military adopted Wagner's assault tactics

      “So I just want to put this postscript that Wagner as an organization may have died, but it in some ways infected the Russian military.”
      at 2:08:27
    8. 2:20:56

      Russia is spending a large share of its economy on the war

      “Russia's spending 44% of the government budget on the war and maybe somewhere around 9% to 10% of GDP.”
      at 2:25:26

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