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Prof G Markets · 3 min · Feb 27, 2026
Kalshi spent four years getting regulated before launch
Tarek Mansour
Tarek Mansour says Kalshi spent four years getting regulated before launching a product and argues financial services need regulatory oversight.
In this episode
Full analysis- 22:00Prediction markets can improve forecasts when trading is informed7 min
- 29:55Insider trading can destroy trust even when it improves pricesPro pick 6 min
- 35:43Prediction markets can hedge risks insurers struggle to price3 min
- 12:29Kalshi says its fee model avoids sportsbook loss incentives6 min
- 41:34Kalshi spent four years getting regulated before launch3 min
“So we spent four years getting regulated before we launched a single product.”
Tarek Mansourat 43:28 · Prof G Markets
Takeaways
- Kalshi spent four years on regulation before launching a product.
- Mansour says financial services need regulator oversight.
- He says resolving market questions also requires regulators and policymakers.
About this segment
Tarek Mansour says Kalshi spent four years getting regulated before launching a product and argues financial services need regulatory oversight. That history makes regulation part of the company’s founding approach, not a later add-on.
Tarek Mansour is cofounder and CEO of Kalshi.
Built Kalshi, the federally regulated exchange for event contracts, with co-founder Luana Lopes Lara.
Scott Galloway, Host
Ed Elson, Host
From “Prediction Markets vs. Gambling: Where’s the Line? | Prof G Markets”, Feb 27, 2026. Watch the full episode
Thanks. We'll look at and fix what's off.
Transcript
Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.
- 41:43
in prediction markets that actually is embracing regulation. I think prediction markets are here to stay. I think the genie's out of the bottle. This is happening. So the thing that I think is really important for you, and I guess I'd want to hear more about, is how will you embrace the regulation that so many tech companies throughout history have tried to shirk on? because it eats into margins, it eats into your bottom line.
- 42:12
It can be an annoying problem. How do you deal with that? I don't think of it that way. Look, I think, let me just address it in two folds. First, the model. You may or may not, you know, people may or may not agree whether trading on option is a good or bad thing. I strongly believe that trading on prediction markets is a good thing. And we've seen the results. People are being more engaged in the political process.
- 42:33
They research different things. and you if you talk to our traders you see like it you know it brings them community like you know i i you know the going back to the joel example like i think one of his best men is someone who he's met in a prediction market in calci in our discord and i think there's a lot of like beauty that's coming out of these markets where like you're seeing this sort of like subjective debate that usually happens uh people insulting each other on twitter and you know this you know polarized on Instagram, happening more quantitatively, more objectively, in a more engaged way, more intellectually on prediction markets.
- 43:10
And I think that's a good thing. I think we're not talking about like, when you have a position on something, you get more self calibrated. Like, you know, when social media is incentivizing clickbait, prediction markets are incentivizing truth, calibration, objectivity, the pursuit of truth. All of these things are good things. And I think over time, you know, when I think about people, like even, you know, when we think about like, you know, our generation, like we want people to value things like being accurate, being precise, thinking critically about the world.
- 43:34
And I think prediction markets brings a lot of that. Our regulatory position. So we spent four years getting regulated before we launched a single product. So the reason why you heard about Polymark and a lot of other, you know, Polymark is really primarily in other places, they just launched without a license, without anything else. We were committed to like, we'll get the license up front, no matter what.
- 43:52
And let me tell you, like when I was 22, the idea of spending my 22 to 26 year olds just doing regulation and law and legal stuff without a product, I mean, it was horrendous. It was really difficult, but I'm very proud of that decision because it led to the outcomes that we're seeing now or we're leading in the market, but I want to build an enduring company. And I just don't see a way to build a financial services company. I can't talk about social media and other places, but a financial services company without proper regulation. I think it's not right. I think you need a regulator overseeing every step, where the money is going, reporting on transactions, everything needs to be public um uh but then you know i also think that like there are questions like the ones that we're discussing that you know over time we need to get better at solving and at
- 44:37
Something as a company I can do alone. We need the regulars to work with us. Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and chief executive officer of Kalshi. Tarek began his career as a quantitative trader at Goldman Sachs. And as a global macro trader at Citadel, he went on to co-found Kalshi in 2018.