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Moonshots · 3 min · Oct 24, 2024
Kurzweil has held to his 2029 AGI forecast since 1999
Ray Kurzweil says he set 2029 as his AGI target in 1999, when a Stanford conference put the timeline at 100 years. He still sees the end of this decade as conservative.
Ray Kurzweil is an inventor, AI researcher and futurist.
Peter Diamandis, Host · Founder & executive chairman, XPRIZE Foundation
Co-founded Singularity University and founded Zero-G; co-wrote the books Abundance and Bold.
About this segment
Ray Kurzweil says he set 2029 as his AGI target in 1999, when a Stanford conference put the timeline at 100 years. He still sees the end of this decade as conservative.
From “The Man Who Predicted AGI Decades Ago w/ Ray Kurzweil | EP #125”, Oct 24, 2024. Watch the full episode
Answers “When will we get AGI?” See all 10 answers
Answers “What will AI look like in the next few years?” See all 74 answers
Thanks. We'll look at and fix what's off.
“I think saying by the end of this decade is conservative. It could happen faster.”
Takeaways
- Kurzweil says he set 2029 as the AGI date in 1999.
- A 1999 Stanford conference reportedly expected a 100-year timeline.
- He says AGI could arrive before the end of this decade.
In this episode
Full episode- 20:00Computing power keeps accelerating across hardware and software4:32
- 27:02Automation will displace jobs before creating new kinds of work4:18
- 42:50Kurzweil expects longevity escape velocity around 20325:41
- 52:18Simulations could compress early drug discovery to days2:51
- 36:25Brain-to-cloud links may not need molecular nanomachines3:34
- 40:21AI-designed proteins could help target cancer cells2:36
- 4:05Larry Page offered to buy Kurzweil's startup outright2:24
12:44Kurzweil has held to his 2029 AGI forecast since 19992:37
Transcript
Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.
- 12:48
yourself on stage with me at the Abundance Summit, which was awesome. Jeffrey Hinton was with us. Elon Musk was with us, and I loved that, you know, Elon said, yes, Ray is prescient and he's conservative. So I think it's the first time you're being called conservative about your AGI estimates. Well, GAI... The AGI is going to be, do you still believe it's 2029? Yes, and he's actually saying next year.
- 13:23
Yeah. So I'm conservative compared to him. I think saying by the end of this decade is conservative. It could happen faster. I see no reason to increase my estimate. I said 2029 in 1999. Yeah, 30 years. And people like Jeffrey Hinton was there. Stanford actually organized a conference. Several hundred people came. and their consensus was 80% thought it would be 100 years, including Jeffrey Hinton, and he's saying that he was wrong.
- 14:01
It's actually more like 30 years, like what Kurzweil was saying, in 1999. But no one was saying 30 years at that time. Yeah. No, it's your... And for those who don't know, Ray's predictive accuracy has been outstanding. If you go and you Google, there are many cases in which all of your books are documented about when you predict something is going to happen. And within, you know, giving a leniency of like 12 to 24 months, I think your accuracy rate is at 86%.
- 14:35
So not too bad. Not too bad at all. You know, the other thing that happened at that summit last year at the Abundance Summit, and I hope we'll have Elon and you back next year, is that... I mean, that happened a year ago, and it seems like in ancient history. Yeah, it is ancient history. So much has happened in the last year. It's just remarkable. And it's going to keep happening faster and faster each year.
- 15:04
So, 2029 for AGI is conservative. And on the predictive, you know, 12 to 24 months, accurate.