Why Pakman expects Israel to be a 2028 litmus test

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 1:24:34

   Because in the UK, I'll be honest with you, in the left, it's a huge issue. It's a huge issue. I would even argue that it's practically impossible for someone on the left to come out and say that, for instance, you know, have a nuanced opinion or maybe be pro-Israel in certain instances and actually have a future, certainly within the mainstream left party. It's a good question. There's a couple different things that are going on at the same time.

2. 1:25:00

   If you poll Democratic voters, it's a very low priority. All foreign policy, for the most part, is a relatively low priority for voters big picture. If you're on Reddit and Twitter, your perception would be that it is the issue. if you pay attention to, you know, it seems like every town hall has a protester that is solely focused on that issue. So I think that much like in 2020, if you were just looking on Reddit and Twitter, you would assume Bernie Sanders was going to run away with that primary. If you spoke to Democratic voters in Michigan and South Carolina, you would have said, oh, actually, they actually do seem to like Joe Biden better. I think that depending on what spaces you occupy, your perception of the issue can be different. I do think, though, to your point, in the 2028 primary, it is probably going to play a somewhat prominent role as a litmus test for some or maybe

3. 1:25:57

   all of the candidates. That's really interesting. But it makes sense because one of the things I always realize, every time my feet touch on American soil, I go on what's happening in the UK and I'm like, I don't really care. Do you know, it's kind of, oh, I don't care as much as when you're there because when you're here he's a traitor it feels further afield it just feels further afield because you're so it's so big here there's so much going on you're so far away from everything that why would you care as much about something that's happening in the middle east and you're largely insulated from the consequences as well so that was what i was going to get to next which is some of these things do have i mean listen it's legitimate to say the iran war is far away but it's affecting our day-to-day lives totally legitimate it's legitimate to say well

4. 1:26:44

   we have an interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because we send a lot of aid to Israel. And so the United States is involved and that's different than Rwanda or whatever. So like, I think that that is a legitimate argument, but in the polling, which is really the only thing we can go by, it continues to rank like trans issues are, they're just nowhere. The most foreign policy is, is nowhere on there. Guns are very low. Um, but crime, immigration, economics, education are ranking really high and in a sense it does it does make sense because that is what is most day-to-day affecting people uh in their lives and what do you think is the sensible uh position on israel and palestine or for the left to take well i so what is the sensible you'd have to ask a lot of different i'm asking you yeah i have laid out a plan that has been relatively

5. 1:27:36

   consistent over the last 15 years as to what i think is the most likely path to lead to peace and i don't even think we're at a point right now where that conversation can seriously happen i highly doubt that hamas and likud and under netanyahu are going to be the likely arbiters of a durable peace in that region so like just putting that very much of a warrant skepticism i think if we were able to get to a point where we felt all right the per the negotiators in the...

6. 1:28:01

   are people we think are credible in terms of being able to figure something out. I've talked about like, listen, I'm for a two-state solution. I think that there are going to have to be some land swaps for some of the settlements that are in place, which Arafat was okay with at a point at which, you know, he was alive and weighing in on it. I think that Jerusalem is going to be complicated because there are, there's a lot of conflict over Jerusalem. East Jerusalem probably is going to have to be part of an eventual Palestinian state. The contiguity of the Palestinian regions is going to be a topic because Gaza and the West Bank are physically separate.

7. 1:28:41

   And so, like, I've seen proposals where it's like, well, you quite literally kind of like need to put a road that would make that a more contiguous state. I've laid out all of these different things. This is all genuinely great, but we're in dreamland. Yeah. And so, like, I don't think that, I mean, listen, so here, what are the big things? If you're arguing that the solution is Israel no longer exists or isn't a Jewish state, I don't think that that's going to go anywhere. If you're arguing that Gaza and the West Bank are absorbed into Israel and Palestinians have no state, I think that that's totally on the other end. And that's also not really going to get us anywhere. I mean, those are my big picture views.

8. 1:29:18

   Yeah, well, I agree with that. The problem is, though, that none of that is actionable today. No, it's not. And the left screams genocide. People who are pro-Israel will say that's complete nonsense, and they'll have a good explanation of why, which is why you have the complete stalemate that you have. And frankly, at this point, just an endless sloganeering with no relevance to the actual solution.

9. 1:29:46

   Yeah, I completely agree with you. And so I think a more salient question for today is what would it take to even get credible negotiators to the table, and I have no idea what it would take. Unfortunately, it seems completely intractable. Well, right. If you're pro-Israel, you say, we can't negotiate with Hamas, who are the people who organized October 7th. And I imagine if you're Hamas, Bibi Netanyahu is not your favorite guy to talk to either. Right. Right. But where does that leave American support for Israel, in your opinion? Well, it's very fragmented. I mean, a public relations perspective. And it seems irreversible for as long as Netanyahu is in charge. I mean, it does seem as though that is going to be, at this point, that would have to change before there would even be the consideration of opinion being revisited in the United States

10. 1:30:41

    among many. You also are starting to see people on the right who are just sort of like, hey, we're kind of sick of this. Let's stop sending money over there, et cetera. And you have more calls from left and right to cut foreign aid, which I actually kind of think that, you know, even Netanyahu has now acknowledged that he has a plan for off ramp ramping foreign aid. I think that that's probably a good idea from an optic standpoint so that then a lot of people can say, OK, well, we've we've dealt with that piece of it that a lot of you are against. Let's now see if we can move to the next step. But I I wish I had better and more robust ideas on this, but it does not seem like it's going to be going anywhere anytime soon.

11. 1:31:19

    Are you optimistic for America, David?