Why Pfeiffer sees a real opening for Andrews in South Carolina

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 12:42

   Is this one as close as it seems? What do you think? You wrote a message box on this. I do. I think it, by all accounts, it seems to be incredibly close. I think this poll is a validation of the idea that Andy Andrews can very much win this race. It's not just that it's tied, because the race has been tied or within a point or two for a couple months now. But previously, the polls were like 44-43, 45-44, and 44% is what Jamie Harrison got in 2020 in that Senate race.

2. 13:10

   So the New York Times poll shows that Annie Andrews can grow her vote share to the point where she has a real shot of winning. You look at the internals, people do not like Darlene Graham. She has a, there is a negative, she has a negative favorite. rating. A plurality of South Carolinians think she does not have the experience to be an effective senator. People like Annie Andrews, although her name ID is still a little bit low, which is a little bit shocking this far into the race. But 54% of South Carolinians think she has the experience to be an effective senator. The plurality think that she is not too far to the right or too far to the left which is a huge thing there um on the issues people the people south carolina think trust her more to handle all the majors issues except immigration all very positive and the

3. 14:00

   thing is 48 48 there are two third party candidates on the ballot in this election they did not show up in this poll they both they both came in at um less than one percent are they combined are they also named darlene graham they're there we'll get there yes darlene darlene with a y graham um Um, and they have shown up in other polls though. Um, so we'll see. And I, I don't know whether the times ask them by name or ask just, are you voting for another candidate?

4. 14:27

   So it's like, I think it like, is it, this is a Trump's a state Trump won by 18 points. This is a very hard state, but listening to the excellent podcast, still counting and which they made the point that I think Nate made this point that if South Carolina is a state with a gigantic black population, there's evidence of early voting and voter registration data that turnout could be through the roof amongst black voters.

5. 14:49

   We saw this in the primaries in some states, especially in the South, that if you had presidential year turnout among black voters and midterm level turnout among everyone else, which is white voters, the state would shift nine points to the left. So it still doesn't, which still doesn't quite get you there. But you need independence. And in this poll, any interest does crush you with independence.

6. 15:12

   And then interestingly enough, also in the Spartanburg-Greenville area, which is where Ralph Norman's from. She's underperforming significantly there. And, you know, there is now a sort of undercover write-in Ralph Norman campaign happening. Oh. That Ralph Norman has not disavowed, per se. And he will not be campaigning with her. And he's not happy with Darlene Graham or Donald Trump for the situation we're in.

7. 15:35

   Yeah, I mean, I think everyone should just, the fact that it is tied in this poll and the fact that we're even talking about this at all when Donald Trump won the state by 18 is crazy. Yeah. And also evidence of like just how far the country has shifted or the electorate has shifted. And how bad a candidate Darlene Graham is. And how bad a candidate Darlene Graham is as well. You know, some people are saying, well, everyone got really excited about Jamie Harrison in 2020.

8. 16:03

   And, you know, the polls showed that he was close and then he lost by 10 to Lindsey Graham. But like someone pointed out the Times-Siena final poll in 2020 did have it had Graham ahead of Harrison by six. Yeah, we ended up winning by 10. But so like there was no tied poll from from Times-Siena in 2020. And that was a year where all the polling was off and overestimated Democrats. And the Times polling, too.

9. 16:30

   And the Times polling, too. So that and, you know, it's a presidential year, so it's hard to compare both. But you're right. Like if you get if everything has to go right for Annie Andrews to win, right, which is incredibly high black turnout, midterm white turnout, some depressed turnout among Republicans, crushing with independence and, you know, some Republicans crossing over to vote for Annie Andrews.

10. 16:54

    Yeah, it's I mean, like they said, it's very, very hard, but it's also worth noting that Trump is in South Carolina, was in South Carolina today. the Republicans are spending a ton of money in South Carolina. They believe it's a real race, too. This is not just us huffing copium somewhere.