Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs

We're rolling out. We're rolling out robots. TK, can you tell us what you're doing with this Pony? Or not? That's speculation. uh look you know obviously is autonomy as we you know in the u.s we have of course do you want to just frame for people that don't that may not be up to speed what was announced or at least why don't you frame it so pony ai is um an autonomous company doing self-driving it's one of the few uh players that actually have cars on the road they're based in china they've got a lot of operations in the middle east they've got a deal with a delivery company called uber which you might be familiar with uh okay so look well the deal was basically that you could partner with uber license in the pony technology and essentially start a competitor i guess to waymo and tesla let me work on this one okay so so in the u.s we have waymo we see the waymos And San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, coming soon to Miami, coming soon to Atlanta, coming soon to DC, or even talking about New York.

Tesla is sort of like, you know, they're doing it the hard way, you know, classic Elon style, like, let's, let's do this sort of in a fundamental, holy shit, let's go all the way kind of, kind of approach. and it's unclear when it gets over the line. Of course, he launched sort of a semi-pilot of sorts in Austin recently, but there's no other alternatives. So what happens is, is some of the folks who are interested in making sure their alternatives have reached out. They've reached out to me and there are different discussions that get going because they're like, Travis, you did autonomy way back in the day, got the uber autonomous stuff going in 2014 maybe there's something to do here to create optionality maybe like i'm of course very interested on the food side i talk about autonomous burritos being a big deal because if you can automate the kitchen the production of food and then you can automate the sort of logistics around food you take huge amount of costs out of the food, out of what's going on in food. And that's, of course, near and dear to my heart. There's folks, of course, that want to see autonomy and mobility. That's a real thing.

It may be that, or I would say, if you get the autonomy problem right, you can use it to apply to both problems. So there's a lot of folks interested in moving things, moving food, moving people. And if there is some kind of autonomous technology that maybe I get involved in, it might apply to a bunch of different things. And so I've got some inbound. Let's just put it that way. There's no real deal right now, but there is definitely some inbound. And I think there's some news about some of that inbound that may or may not be occurring. That's probably the best way to put it. That is long-winded. I'll try to tighten that up next time.

No, no. I think it's great to get the overview here first on All-In. Thank you for sharing it with us. And everybody knows you have been doing a bowl builder. Yeah. Lab 37, I think it's called. You can throw it up on the screen. Not sure what the status of it is. And then I'll let you go, Chamath, with your follow-up question. But I think there's a pretty interesting concept here of the bowl getting built and then put into a self-driving car. Now, that machine looks huge, but it's actually 60 square feet. That picture makes it look monstrous.

You know, sort of, I like to say, you don't have to be wealthy to be healthy and just infrastructure to get that cost down. And so you're doing something as a service that we used to do at home. i think in the super long run you're like what where's the story on grocery stores if you go to like in in 20 years i think everybody agrees you you will have machines making very high quality very personalized meals for everybody this would be good for keith because he measures stuff down to like five calories based on his histogram what's your what's your body fat like seven percent eight percent It's like 10.

Just opened his Instagram. He posted four times today about his body fat. He's like so disgusted with himself at 10%. It's like bad at 10. But I actually think the vision of this, actually the natural implication and maybe the home run version of this is everybody has a private chef in their house, a robot in their house that actually does this personalized because people do want to cook at home, but they don't have the time. Yeah, or space. And infrastructure, but man, these delivery services are charging. Rich people do this all the time, right? They do these crazy meal delivery services for 200 bucks a day. And this is just going to abstract it down to everybody. And man, people get creative when there's that empty space, to your point, Shamath, about what happens to all this space. When I lived in New York in the 80s and 90s, it was common to, in Tribeca, in West Chelsea, where I lived, to take storefronts, put your little architect's office in the front and live in the back.

and many people were hacking real estate we still need five ten million homes in this country and they're already doing this with malls i i keep seeing malls being turned into colleges and creative spaces one of them in boston they turned like the second and third floor into studio apartments for artists so you know where there's a will there's a way we could use the space i mean you know where this goes with chamas saying and where the real estate goes is we call it the internet food court where you know you're on amazon right it's the everything store now imagine that for food and then imagine you have an 8 000 square foot facility where basically anything can be anything can be made because if you have that machine you saw has 18 sort of dispensers for food 10 different sauces you get the idea now what what about when it's 50 or 100 dispensers for food what if you have multiple machines with 100 dispensers for food that's crazy you can the combinatorial math in terms of what's possible what could be made sort of you know goes exponential and so the internet food court is sort of the vision for where this all goes another example of the bitter lesson the bitter yeah we're going to get to that i guess

today in a very full docket before we get to that just a little bit of housekeeping here september 7th 8th 9th in los angeles the all-in summit again all in.com slash yada yada yada lineup is stacked and we're going to start announcing the speakers people have been begging us to announce the speakers i don't know maybe you gotta hold some back careful hold a couple back but we got some really nice speakers lined up it is going to be extraordinary it is the best one yet i mean well done every year we have this well done yeah yeah every year we have this little bit of panic like um you know we're going to get great speakers and man they started flowing in this week it's going to be extraordinary almost as extraordinary as this delicious tequila behind my head here get the tequila tequila.olin.com deliveries begin late He's moving to the side.

You can't even tell it's tequila. Summer back here. Oh, nice. All right, listen. Oh, wow. Lots to discuss this week. Obviously, AI is continuing to be the big story in our industry. And for good reason, our bestie, Elon, released Grok 4 Wednesday night. Two versions, base model and a heavy model. $30 a month for the base. $300 a month for this heavy model. which has a very unique feature you can have a multi-agent feature i got to see this actually when i visited xai a couple of weeks ago where multiple agents work on the same problems and they and they do that simultaneously obviously and then compare each other's work and it gives you kind of like a study group the best answer uh by consensus really interesting according to artificial analysis benchmarks you can pull that up nick rocks for base model has surpassed open AI's 03 Pro, Google Gemini's 2.5 Pro as the most intelligent model. This includes like seven different industry standard evaluation tests, you can look it up, but reasoning, math, coding, all that kind of stuff. This is, you know, book smarts, not necessarily street smart. So it doesn't mean that these things can reason. And obviously, there was a little, there was a little kerfluffle

on X, formerly known as Twitter, where XAI got a little frisky. was saying all kinds of crazy stuff and needed to maybe be red teamed a little bit more decisively. Many of you know Grok4 was trained on Colossus. That's that giant data center that Elon's been building. And we showed the chart here, Chamath. You sent us a link to the Bitter Lesson by Rich Sutton in the group chat. That's the 2019 blog post. We'll pull it up here for people to take a look at and we'll put it in the show notes. Maybe just generally your reaction to both how quickly Elon has, and that chart showed it, how quickly Elon has caught up.

And I don't think people expected him to take the lead, but here we are. Before we start, Nick, can you please show Elon's tweet about how they did on the AGI benchmark? It's absolutely incredible. Two things. One is how quickly, starting in March of 2023. So we're talking about less than two and a half years, what this team has accomplished, and how far ahead they are of everybody else as demonstrated by this.

But it's not like there was some tablets floating in space that weren't drafted by humans that we've trained on. As you get in non-LLM-based models, you may be totally right, but almost no one's really using non-LLM-based models at scale. On driving specifically, Travis is totally right, that humans are actually really good drivers, except when they get distracted. They get distracted by drugs or alcohol. They get distracted by being tired. They get distracted by turning the radio. They get distracted by chatting with their passenger. So training against human behavior has actually turned out to be a great decision because what for whatever sort of darwinistic reasons humans are pretty ideal drivers and so you don't have to reason from first principles

this is a much better path and i think again there may be a a broad level uh sort of lesson there the most important thing i think as a vc that you said uh as we've been debating for years

so what does it mean for everybody that's not grok when they wake up today and they have to decide how do i change my strategy or double down i think look i'm i'm not in the investment game but if i were it would be all about scientific breakthrough so i sometimes get in this place where i'm looking i'm going down a path i you know i'll be up at four or five in the morning uh my day hasn't quite started but i'm not sleeping anymore and i'll start going like i'll be on quora and see some cool quantum physics question or something else i'm looking into and i'll go down this thread with gpt or gra and i'll start to get to the edge of what's known in quantum physics and then i'm doing the equivalent of vibe coding except it's vibe physics and we're approaching what's known and i'm trying to poke and see if there's breakthroughs to be had and i've gotten pretty damn close to some interesting breakthroughs just doing that and i you know i pinged uh i pinged you on at some point i'm just like dude if i'm if i'm doing this and i'm super amateur hour physics enthusiast like what about all those phd students and postdocs that are super legit using this tool. And this is pre Grok 4. Now with Grok 4, there's a lot of mistakes I was

seeing Grok make that then I would correct and we would talk about it. Grok 4 could be this place where breakthroughs are actually happening, new breakthroughs. So if I'm investing in this space, I would be like, who's got the edge on scientific breakthroughs and the application layer on top of these foundational models that orients that direction is your perception that the llms are actually starting to get to the reasoning level that they'll come up with a novel concept theory and have that breakthrough or that we're kind of reading into it and it's just trying random stuff at the at the margins it's uh or maybe it doesn't happen no no so what i what i've seen and again i haven't used grok for i tried to use it early this morning but for some reason i couldn't do it on my, on my app. But so let's say we're talking grok three and existing chat GPT as it is. No, it cannot come up with the new idea. These things are so wedded to what is known.

And they're so like, even when I come up with a new idea, I have to really, it's like pulling a donkey source. You see, you're pulling it because it doesn't want to break conventional wisdom. it's like really adhering to conventional wisdom you're pulling it out and then eventually goes oh shit you got something but then when it says that when it says that then you have to you have to go okay it said that but i'm not sure like you have to double and triple check to make sure that you really got something to your point when these models are fully divorced from having to learn on the known world and instead can just learn I don't know.

synthetically yeah then everything gets flipped upside down to what is the best hypothesis you have or what is the best question you could just give it some problem and it would just figure it out so where i go on this one guys is it's all about scientific method right if you get if you have an lm or foundational model of some kind that is the best in the world with the scientific method game the f over you basically you just light up more gpus and you just got like a thousand more phd students working for you keith you're nodding your head here i agree with that i think that's fantastic because the scientific method also the faster it is the more you when you have a hypothesis the faster you get a response you're more likely to dive in and dive in and dive in recursively and recursively and every lag every millisecond lag causes you to like lose your train of thought sort of so to speak so you get the benefits that travis alluding to plus speed and you go places you never really guess this happens all the time when you run a company and you're doing like analytics and you have a tool that allows you to constantly query quickly quickly quickly double click triple click you get to answers that you never get to if there's

even a second or two second or three second delay let alone sending it to a human secondly where you actually see this today it's already happening if you look at foundational models that just apply to science there's lots of things about the human body let's say in health biology that we humans don't actually understand all the connections like why do we do x why do some people get cancer what other people not get cancer why is the brain work this way models trained solely on science tend to expose connections that no human has ever had before and that's because like the raw materials there. And we only have a conscious awareness of thought one, 10%. But when you apply it to other human domains, where you're training on human sort of data, human produced data, human produced output, they're limited to that output. So I think you just take the science and apply it writ large, and you're going to wind up finding things that no human has ever thought before. And it's the thing about science, though, is that it's the hypothesis that you then have to test in the physical world so the you're like okay have you got this hive mind this like you know this computation engine this brain of sorts you wanted to say consciousness but you stopped

yourself yeah i was like how do i describe the big c word yeah but but you need to be able to test in the physical world. So you could imagine a physical lab connected to one of these systems where then you could say, okay, like if it's a chemistry experiment, you could do chemistry experiments or physics. You get the idea. What could go wrong? It would be, it's yeah, no big deal. It's going to be fine. Okay. So, but, but this is where it goes because if you have a scientific method machine, you still have to be able to test your hypothesis. You have to go through the science and verification yeah exactly yeah wow it's kind of mind-blowing reminds me really mind-blowing if you remember i don't know if you guys remember dark matter and like the discovery of it and everything and as explained to me by lisa randall you know the the discovery was made not by knowing there was dark matter there and observing it but observing there was something you know gravitational forces around this other matter and then they said but wait what's causing that and that's why they found dark matter so these ideas you know the idea that an llm could actually do that come up with something so novel is it doesn't it feels

like we might be right there right like we're kind of on the cusp of it one of the seven most difficult problems in math with the most important problems in math is proving a general solution to this thing called mavi stokes which is basically like viscous fluid dynamics and conservation of mass we use it every day in the design of everything you know what it hasn't been proved isn't that the craziest thing where you're just like how is this even possible we use it to design airplanes to design And everything, it hasn't been proved. And so you could just point a computer at this thing, and you would unlock all these incredible mysteries of the universe. And we would probably find completely different propulsion systems. We could probably do things that we didn't think were possible. Teleportation. I mean, who knows what's possible.

But remember, remember, you know, how Elon talks about Brock and about AI generally, is about why are we here? What is the purpose? meaning of the universe what is the meaning of the universe how does it work and a sort of fierce truth-seeking mechanism there let me ask you a question keith travis jason if you guys were running grok 4 to be so much fun how do you judo flip open ai because they are marching steadfastly towards a billion Mao, then a billion Dow. It's a juggernaut. So how do you use the better product in a moment to judo flip the less better product? Look, yeah, I mean, here's the thing, right? So you do the Elon way. So you get a bunch of missionary, like full on missionary engineers that work twice as hard. And you have a culture that is ultra fierce, truth seeking. And you don't, you don't get caught up in politics, bureaucracy, BS. And you just you go for it. And I think, you know, that's where you know, and then you go, wow, scientific breakthrough scientific method, like you start winning on truth. And that will start, I believe that will start to give the product awesomeness of OpenAI a run for its money. But like the product of OpenAI, the product department, those guys are rushing. They're really good. They're not only ahead of the game, but they

feel like it just, they're just leading in a lot of different ways. But if you are better at truth, you will eventually have an AI product manager. Yeah, and on a tactical basis too, people forget how good Elon is at factories and physical real world things. What he did standing up Colossus made like, Jensen Wan was like, how is this possible that you did this, right? So pressing that, his ability to build factories, and he said many times like, the factory is the product of Tesla. It's not the cars that come out of the factory or the batteries it's the factory itself so if he can keep solving the energy problem with solar on one side and batteries and standing up you know colossus two three four five he's going to have a massive advantage there on top of travis you know the missionary individuals which by the way was what he backed before sam altman corrupted the original missionary basis of opening i made a closed ai and a you know this is nothing derogatory towards him but he did hoodwink and stab elon in the back it's not nothing personal i mean he just screwed him over and would you say he bamboozled him bamboozled him screwed him hoodwinked him you know pick your term here but uh he did it he

didn't dirty the original mission was to be like a thousand open source all this content that's the other piece i think is a wild card you know and then i'll i'm interested in keith's position But open sourcing some of this could have profound ramifications. I think open sourcing the self-driving data could have a really profound impact. Elon wanted to do something really disruptive, like he open sourced his patents for, you know, charging. If he open sourced the data set and self-driving, does anybody have the ability to produce robo taxis at the scale he can do it? I don't think so. Well, if Travis's hypothesis is true, then everybody will.

Well, everybody will what? Sorry, everybody will what, Shimon? If you have access to the money that buys the compute, everyone could solve that problem. What's the hardware piece I'm talking about? Which problem? He said if he published all the FSD data, could somebody build an autonomous vehicle? Well, yes, but could somebody produce 100 million robo-taxis from a factory with batteries in them? Okay, that's a different question. That's the thing I'm saying. And not really, because last time I was a guest on, you know, and we talked about vertical integration, products really require vertical integration. So ultimately, you have a self-driving something that is custom built for knowing it's going to be self-driving and it interacts differently. The cost structure is different. The controls are different. The seating is different. Everything. You build a product taking advantage of where in the stock you have the most competitive advantage, but then you leverage that and it reinforces.

It's still why Apple, despite missing the AI wave, is still a pretty good company from any empirical standpoint. I mean, their performance is absolutely miserable on the most important technology through the last 70 years. But the company is still alive and still worth trillions of dollars because it's vertically integrated. OpenAI, at a career point, they do have a good product team. And they need to stay ahead of the product level because they can't compete on the factory level. The way to stay ahead of the product level is shipping a device. They've got to ship the device. It's got to be good.

It's got to be right. It's got to be the right form factor. It's got to do things for humans that are unexpected. But then if they do that, they're like Apple plus AI. Chamath, what's the paper you're talking about before? What was the name of it again? The Bitter Lesson. It could apply to autonomous driving is right now it's still like, hey, how do I drive like a human? We talked about that. But the leapfrog moment here could be like, hey, drive a car, make sure it's efficient, don't hit anybody. and just simulate that a quadrillion times and it's all good, right? But right now we're still trying to drive like humans because we don't have enough data and therefore can't do enough compute.

That's the global lesson, by the way. Chamath, you're totally right. Conceptual, you know, the blog post is right, but that's only true when you have enough data. And depending on the use case, the level of data you need may not be possible for years, decades, and you may need to hack your way there through human interactions. Physical world AI is lacking in data, and so you just try to approximate humans. I don't know if you guys have seen this.

it's worth it to, you know, sort of perplexity to make this waypoint, perhaps, if you look at it as a waypoint between the ultimate vision, which is a command line and earpiece. How do you get distribution, Jason, for the 19th web browser in 2025? Well, yeah, that is a challenge. And I think most people are speculating Apple, which has a lot of users might buy perplexity or do a deal with perplexity and give them that distribution because of the Justice Department case against Google.

So there's been a lot of speculation about that. But Keith, what do you think? Well, I don't think they'd buy anything worth it. Like, what is Apple going to get? I mean, we continue this failed strategy of Apple. Right. Apple has missed every possible window on AI and continues to miss it. And it has cultural, I think the CEO has challenges. I think culturally they have challenges and they have infrastructure challenges. So it's not an easy fix, but buying perplexity is not going to help. Chabot's strategy is actually a pretty coherent one for perplexity, co-op perplexity. So I think that's not about it.

Pick a vertical and own it strategy. Not a bad idea, especially because you need unique data sources. Some of those data sources may or may not license their data to OpenAI. So you can do some clever things there. But I don't think there's any residual value that Apple would get out of perplexity, except there's some product taste. But what are you going to spend? Like a billion dollars for product taste? I mean, Mark's spending hundreds of millions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars or whatever he's spending these days. And, you know, Grok, if anything, Grok 4 shows that Mark really does need to spend money to build a whole new team because everything they've done in AI has also missed the boat.

Well, I mean, Keith, the way you phrase it there almost makes it worth it for Apple. to throw a Hail Mary, have a team with some taste because that's how they tend to do things is something that is elegant. And why not just throw your search to it? Throw 10 billion at complexity team and see what happens. What's elegant would be if there's a bunch of agents in just a chat box. Seeing a bunch of visual diarrhea is not elegant. It's lazy. On our little Bloomberg clone, I'll give you naming rights. So you can call it the polyhapatea. So, hey, can somebody bring up the polyhapeteer? You know what's so funny?

Actually, it just rolls right off your tongue. TK, listen, we were trying to do a screen of companies and it maxes out at five companies on a specific type of screen where you're like, you're trying to compare stock price to EBIT and you're like, okay, I can only choose five, I guess. So, which five should I choose? That happens when LaFont was on, right? Like two episodes ago, he was like, I can't pull this up. It's limited to six companies. Dude, so what do people use Bloomberg for? They have a back five. They use it for the messaging. Now, like my team has traded huge position via text message on Bloomberg.

So there is something very valuable there. But the core usability and the core UI of that company has not evolved. I have my contribution. And Perplexity is very good at that, by the way. They do a very good job. I got a new domain named Travis. Let this one just sink in here. This is my way to weasel my way into the deal. Begin.com. Begin.com. You own them, don't you? I do. I'm just a little, I snipe some good ones once in a while. I got begin.com and I got annotated.com. Those are my two little domains. Bro, you're like one of these old people that show up at those flea markets. Oh, like the road show?

And then they almost said you got a Picasso? The antique road show. And you're like, oh, I have this thing that I bought, 1845. Guys, Jason is the daddy in GoDaddy. Okay, that's just what it is. I'm your daddy. That's what it is. Who's your daddy? Hey, speaking of daddy, let's go on. to our next story is now the right time for a third party elon seems to think so last week he announced that x he would be creating a new political party i'll let you decide who daddy is in this one uh he said quote when it comes to bankrupting our country with waste and graft we live in a one-party system not a democracy he's not yet outlined a uh a platform for the american party we talked about it here last week i listed four core values which seem to get a good reaction on x fiscal responsibility slash doge sustainable energy and dominance in that manufacturing in the u.s which elon has done uh single-handedly here pronatalism which i think is a passion project for him and shabat you punched it up with the fifth technological excellence according to polymarket 55 chance that elon registers the american party by the end of the year. And, you know, one thing I was trying to figure out is just how unpopular are these

candidates and these political parties. This is a very interesting chart that I think we can have a great conversation around. It turns out we used to love our presidents. If you look here from Kennedy at 83%, his highest approval rating, his lowest was 56%. That was his lowest approval rating. So he operated in a very high band. Look at Bush 2 during after 9-11. 92% was his peak. His lowest was 19, right? Wartime president. But then you get to Trump 1, Biden, and Trump 2, historically low high approval. Their high watermark, 49 for Trump 1, 63 for Biden, one of one and then 47 for Trump too. And their lowest 29, 31, 40. So maybe it is time for a third party candidate. Let's discuss it, boys.

I have no idea how to read this graph. I'm like, what is happening here? This is the worst formatted. chart this is a confusing chart but well the reason i'm putting it up is for debate so you should be saying thank you we're debating that it's creating great debate why did you put it up here's another one gallup poll americans desire for a viable third party 63 percent in 2023 so it's it's bumping along an all-time high okay i'm really concentrating on this one okay anyway i'm going to stop there what's the gray i'm going to let you okay god those are the different sense during that time period and how popular parties were. Let's stop here. This is a good place to stop. I just blew a GPU. Yeah. A couple of points. Yes. The idea of Elon creating a third party is for any other human being like absolutely absurd and ridiculous. Elon has obviously done incredible things. So dismissing anything he's touching is a bad idea. However, I think the best metaphor I've seen is it's a little bit like Michael Jordan tried to play baseball and he became a replacement-level baseball player, which is actually really hard to do, by the way.

Elon is probably a replacement-level politician. He's Michael Jordan for entrepreneurial stuff, but the third-party stuff is not going to work. First of all, that chart is misleading. It's a flaw of average. It's both badly designed and it's a flaw of average. Trump is incredibly popular among Republicans. He actually has the highest approval rate of any Republican ever measured in recorded history. it's 95 reagan was peaked out at 93 it's just democrats don't like them which is perfectly fine being polarizing is is an ingredient to being successful including with people on the show like the point of accomplishing things in the world is you don't really care what half the world thinks you need to make sure that there's a lot of people who like you and really approve and are enthusiastic about what you do and trump is about as popular with his party as anybody's ever been ever, period. No exceptions. Secondly, MAGA has kind of already changed the Republican Party. Trump is sort of like a third party takeover of the Republican Party. And so it's kind of already happened. And maybe you can do this every 20 years or 30 years. I don't think you can have like this kind of transformation on one party within a too compressed period of time

for a lot of reasons. Third is really smart parties absorb the lesson of political science. Unfortunately, I studied political science. I wasted kind of my college years. And instead of saying CS and maybe then I'd be coding stuff and doing physics like Travis. But one thing I did learn is smart parties absorb the best ideas of third parties. So the oxygen is usually not there because there's a Darwinistic evolution of if you get traction on an idea, it's really easy to conscript some of those ideas and take away the momentum. No third party candidate that's a true third party has won a Senate seat since 1970.

And that's actually Bill Buckley's brother. And so he has some name ID. The other thing Elon, I think, is missing in the proponents of what he's doing is people vote not just for ideas, they vote for people. It's a combination. The product is what do you believe and who are you? And you can't divorce the two. Trump is a person, and that generates a lot of enthusiasm. And it's one of the reasons why he has challenges in midterms, because he's not on the ballot. His ideas may be on the ballot, but he is not specifically on the ballot. So unless, because Elon can't be the figurehead of the party, he literally can't constitutionally, you need a face that's a person, Obama, Clinton.

Like, there's reasons why people resonate with Reagan. without that personality specific ideas just are not going to galvanize the american people

And that includes many people on this podcast, people in our friend circle. And I think just the idea that Elon could create a platform that people could opt into and support, just the existence of that would make the other two parties get their act together. By the way, the other thing that- And I think that's what we need is a little bit of a stick there and a carrot. Yeah. Hey, if you don't control spending, there's this third option. And if Travis and I are in it, and Keith, I know you'll never leave the Republican Party, but Chamath, you know, you're probably set where you want to be right now.

But I can tell you, we go through our top 10, 20 list. Out of those, 50% will join Elon's party day one. The other thing, Jason, that Keith said, which I think is really important is, if he were to run people, I think they have to transcend politics and policy. And I think they need to be straight up bosses, people that have enormous name recognition, so that effectively, what you're voting is a name and not an agenda. Equivalent to, I think, what happened to Schwarzenegger when he ran, he ran on an enormous amount of name recognition in the Great Davis recall he didn't run on the platform i don't think any of us could mention jd vance had this great book capture people's imagination he's an incredible speaker he pisses off a third or two-thirds of the country depending on where you are in the country but you can't ignore him i think elon can find 10 jd vance type characters and back them fairly easily he is a magnet for talent people will line up i have been contacted by high profile people i was i was actually thinking of running can you put me in touch with elon i was thinking more like actors and sports stars meaning where they just come with their own inbuilt distribute like i think you almost have to

to rank x followers and instagram followers and do a join and say okay these are do you know what i mean like i think it's like totally different guys it's painful like let's not get more celebrities as politicians like let's get like people who've led large, large efforts, large initiatives, complex things. Ideally, but they still have to communicate, right, Keith? They have to be able to communicate on a podcast. That's the new platform. If they can't spend two hours, three hours chopping it up on a podcast like this or Joe Rogan, you know, that's Kamala's, the reason she couldn't even contend was because she couldn't hang for two hours in an intellectual discussion.

If you can't hang, you're out in today's political arena. Yeah, I get that. It'll be interesting to see if he can tune his algorithm for talent, which is epic, to tune for politics because it's a slightly different audience. But if you can tune the algorithm and quality, that might work. I think you can win a few house races. I think that's doable. I don't think you can win a Senate race. Well, there it is, Elon. Keith doesn't think you can win a Senate race, but he thinks you can win a couple of congressional ones. Thanks for giving him the motivation, Keith. I appreciate it. I'm sure he's going to love that.

That is the biggest mistake you've ever made. He's not going to win two. So people in the Republican Party right now are going, oh, no, don't poke the tiger. Listen, that's how Trump got into politics. So I don't want to be Obama here. You just Obama. Elon, right. Yeah. Congratulations. All right. Listen, SCOTUS made a big decision here. This is a really important decision. They've sided with Trump for plans for federal workforce rifts, reductions in workforce, for those of you who don't know. So, as you know, Elon, Trump, they wanted to downsize the 3 million people who are federal employees.

This is just federal employees we're talking about. We're not talking about military and we're not talking about state and city. That's tens of millions of additional people. If you remember, Trump issued this executive order back in February when we got in office implementing the president's Doge Workforce Optimization Initiative. and he asked all the federal agencies hey just prepare a rift for their departments consistent with applicable laws was part of this eo okay in april the american federation of government employees afge sued the trump administration saying the president must consult congress on large scale workforce changes this is a key debate because the congress as you know has power of the purse they set up the money but the president and the executive branch they have to execute on that. And that's what the key is here. So they accused Trump of violating the separation of powers under the Constitution Act. AFGE has 820,000 members. In May, a San Francisco-based federal judge sided with the unions blocking the executive order. The judge, who was appointed by Clinton, said any reduction in the federal workforce must be authorized by Congress. This is a key issue. And the White House submitted an emergency appeal, yada, yada. Eight of nine

Supreme Court justices sided with the White House in overturning this block. And so the reasoning, it's very likely the White House will win the argument of the executive order. They have the right to prepare a rift. The question is, can they actually execute on that rift? And who has that power, Chamath? Does the power reside with the president to make large scale rifts? Or do they have to consult Congress first? Your thoughts on this issue? It's an incredibly important ruling, incredibly right, I think President Trump should have absolute leeway to decide how the people that report to him act and do their job. If you take a step back, Jason, there are more than 2,000 federal agencies, employees plus contractors, I think number almost 3 million people. If you put 3 million people into 2000 agencies, and then you give them very poor and outdated technology, which unfortunately, most of the government operates on, what are you going to get? You're going to get incredibly slow processes, you're going to get a lot of checking and double checking. And you're going to ultimately just get a lot of regulations because they're trying to do what they think is the right job. So since 1993, what have we seen?

Regulations have gotten out of control. It's like 100,000 new rules per some number of months. It's just crazy. So eventually, we all succumb to an infinite number of rules that we all end up violating and not even know it. So if the CEO of the United States, President Trump, isn't allowed to fire people, then all of that stuff just compounds. So I think that this is a really important thing that just happened. It allows us to now level set how big should the government be. But more importantly, the number of people in the government are also the ones that then direct downstream spend that make net new rules and if you can slow the growth of that down you're actually doing a lot in many ways i wish elon had come in and created doge now like could you imagine if doge was created the day after this supreme court ruling it would have been a totally different outcome i think because with that supreme court ruling in hand these guys probably would have been like a hot knife through butter Travis so I think it's a big deal except that ruling doesn't happen without Doge that Doge caused that ruling to occur true well the EO did you could have passed that was all Doge style though you know what I'm

saying yes if they wasn't firing people yeah they probably wouldn't felt the need to your point

I don't know if they can. That's where it gets borderline unconstitutional, where you actually prescribe that the president, in the exercise of his constitutional duties, has to hire a certain number of people. That feels pretty precarious. Well, I'm not sure, Keith. It's just like they prescribe a whole bunch of other things. You must appropriate money to this specific institution to do this specific work.

But that's not an executive function. Like if you said like the secretary of state has to have X number of employees doing something, the secretary of state is your personal representative to conduct foreign affairs on behalf of the president of the United States. It gets a little bit more messy as you translate it to people that the president should. I mean, yes, Congress does set, you know, which people are subject to Senate confirmation, what their salaries and compensation bans are. So it's never going to be fully binary where the president can do whatever he wants. And it's never going to I don't think it'll be constitutional for Congress to mandate and put all kinds of handcuffs on the president.

Well, then you also have performance that comes in here. What if you look at the Department of Education and say, scores have gone down, we've spent this money, we're not getting the results, therefore these people are incompetent, therefore I'm firing them for cause, and I'm going to hire new people. How are you going to stop the executive from doing that? There's been a bunch of litigation in parallel to this litigation about the president's ability to fire people. And for the most part, the Supreme Court's basically, with maybe the exception of the Federal Reserve chair, said that the president can fire pretty much anybody he wants. I mean, that's the way to go. I hate to be cutthroat about it, but if the results aren't there, then you fire people. Yeah. If they're a presidential appointee, the president should be able to fire you at will. Just like if you were a VP at one of our companies, the CEO should be able to fire you at will. But what about, Keith, if the whole department sucks? Hey, you guys were responsible for early education. You had to put together a plan. The plan failed. Everybody's fired. We're starting over. You should be allowed to do that. How are we going to have an efficient

government? Some of these departments were created by congressional statute, like the Department of Education in 1979. And you're right. Every single educational stat has got worse in the United states since the department was created but there is a law on the books that says there shall be a department of education so you may have to repeal that all right listen we're at an hour and a half gentlemen do you want to do the fico story or should we just wrap jama and we got plenty of show here it's a great episode anything i don't really have much to say on the fico story i thought these other topics were really good though we did great today this is a great panel i'm so excited of you guys are here let me just ask you guys um any off-duty stuff that you can share with us with the audience any recommendations restaurants hotels trips movies you watch books you read keith i know that you are an active guy what's on your agenda this summer anything interesting you can share with the audience that you're consuming conspicuous or otherwise well i don't want to share any good restaurants or hotels because oh you're gatekeeping you're gatekeeping come on man give us your favorite it's like if you had a babysitter yes can i get your nanny's

email there are there are things that are what do you call it no marginal cost consumption like netflix so for example um you know this documentary on osama bin laden is phenomenal like i don't know if any of you have seen it i haven't seen it and you know i i'm a student of this stuff and i i thought you know i knew the whole story and etc watch episode one just start with episode one and it just blew me away with new information new New footage, just absolutely incredible stuff. So I highly, highly recommend it. What was the big takeaway for you so far? I don't know if there's any specific takeaway, but just so many parts of the story are misunderstood and not really understood, and how various confidences of somewhat random things lead to a very catastrophic result. But it's as dramatic as the best movie, but it's a full documentary and you will learn things and absorb things i i just i've had friends while i've been recommending it to friends and for a story you think you know it's incredible incredibly revealing okay travis anything you got on your plate there that you're enjoying the restaurant a dish i mean look you know i mean jason you know i go to austin a lot yes like basically from march

till October. I do about 15 weekends in Austin. I have a lake house. Jason's hung out a couple times. So I, I love water skiing. That's my whole thing. That's my like, that's, I just love it. It's just my thing since I was a kid. Yeah. And it's like it's, I call it lake life. So that's a thing. And then I recently, this little bit of like a side quest. i recently purchased the preeminent backgammon engine xg xg that's right it's uh acronym is it's extreme gammon and so the preeminent engine so all the pros rate themselves based on this it was done it was built by this amazing entrepreneur this guy zavier who is just a full-on sort of ultra ultra i mean just what's the word i'm looking for it's not like a savant essentially but hasn't worked on it for many years so i'm getting back into it and love it and making it like taking modern machine learning sort of deep learning techniques and like big compute and saying can we push the game of backgammon forward so super exciting and ultra training apps to get people up to speed quickly i played in my first backgammon tournament in cached so that was pretty cool no wait yeah okay yeah all due respect you found uber you're very high profile you go to this back and is this like held at the motel eight

in like a conference room in the back. It was amazing. It was like a month ago or so. There's like a big tournament and it was, so the United States Backend Federation had this big tournament. I guess it was at the Los Angeles LAX, at the LAX Hilton. Oh, yes. It was in the basement of the Hilton. Great. And it was like... Next to the Dungeons and Dragons convention? It had those kinds of legit vibes. I love it. And like people, so I went in super low pro, just did my thing, but eventually was recognized. But I was not recognized as the founder of Uber. I was recognized as the owner of XG. Ooh, the owner of XG is here, well.

And then there was like a full on melee that basically occurred. They're like, oh, the owner of XG, Travis is here. Chamath, I feel like we've got a window here to do the all in backgammon. high-end tournament we gotta lock this down now we gotta lock down the all-in backgammon set i get the co-branding rights on this okay absolutely xg well no the all-in xg you know like because i love a great backgammon set if we could make like a ten thousand dollar one chamath we could kill turtles or white rhinos all the animals that you know um freeberg's trying to protect we could murder them and then make that would be so great yes like maybe the white could be you know rhinos and then you could take something else elephants Something, you know, just really tragic, and then eat the meat and make the backgammon set for you.

I love backgammon. Honestly, like, if I wasn't attempting to be like expert poker player, that is the game. I mean, if you're talking about a Pandora's box where once you open it, oh my God, you can go down the rabbit. Backgammon is a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful game. I love the vibes of sitting. Travis and I sat. I got some cigars out. We pour a little of the all-in tequila, tequila.allin.com. We get that going. A couple of the all-in cigars, and then we have the all-in back. It's a wonderful hang. Yeah. Keith, would you consider giving us some of your money playing back? Absolutely. We got to get some of that money on the table because you don't play poker with us.

I don't play poker, but backgammon, yeah, that sounds great. and I'll bring better tequila. I'll bring better tequila. We're going to upgrade your tequila. We'll do a little taste-off. Yeah, so you've insulted now Elon with the Senate seats and sacks with his tequila. My tequila's much better, trust me. Wait, what? Okay, who is left in the PayPal mafia you'd like to insult before this episode? Yeah, and you can talk about Reid Hoffman. Or Peter. Anything about Peter? Reid can join Elon's party. He's collecting a bunch of misfits, so we might as well take Reid too. All right, listen, this has been another amazing episode of the number one podcast in the world, the all-in podcast for your sultan of science who couldn't make it today.

He's at the BEEP conference that we don't mention. And David Sacks, who is out making America safe in AI and crypto. Chamath Palihapitiya, World's Greatest Moderator. Travis. Keith, thank you for coming. Thanks for participating. You guys were great today. What a panel. See you all next time. Bye-bye. We'll let your winners ride. Rain Man David Sacks I'm going all in And it said we open source it to the fans And they've just gone crazy with it I'm going all in Besties are gone That's my dog taking out It's in your driveway sex Oh man We should all just get a room and just have one big Hugh Georgie because they're all just useless.

It's like this sexual tension, but they just need to release them out. Wet your feet. Wet your feet. We need to get merch. I'm doing all in. I'm doing all in.