Masad uses exponential compute trends to predict what comes next

Transcript

Transcribed by machine (Whisper) from the episode’s audio, so a word may be off here and there.

1. 40:25

   Yeah, I mean, I sort of started answering some version of that early on in our conversation. And I was saying, and you had a good point that it's not just about sitting and thinking about it, but I think a component of it at least is that I actively try to predict things and I actively revise my predictions and look at them. And I think it's a skill you can get good at. And there are some certain principles that you can follow.

2. 40:52

   Early on, I read Ray Kurzweil. Ray Kurzweil's whole thing is if you look at, if you chart like a log linear chart of like old compute flops in the world, it's this like freaking straight line. And actually, AI didn't bend it, which is crazy. It's still a straight line. It needed AI to happen. It needed AI to happen. It's almost a religious sort of thing. It's like it'll happen anyways. Yeah, I saw someone say, you know, treat this. He said, it's not that AI brought on the compute, the compute brought on AI. That's true. Which is a fascinating thing. Like deep learning would not have happened without the compute. Everybody thought neural networks didn't work. Back in the 80s, that was the thing about neural networks. They didn't work. But it turns out if you give them 10 billion times as much resources, then they start to work. Yeah. Who knew? So that line,

3. 41:43

   There's a lot of predictions you can make by truly understanding a line more broadly Okay, so the reason you're so good at living in the future is because you have normalized that line You're you assume that you're not living in a static world. In fact that you're living in an exponential Yes exponential world and a lot of what you talk about in your essays is Is understanding the exponential and I think once you truly understand the exponential like you can look at an LLM I can look at GPT-2 and extrapolate a lot better than most people and just say I imagine chats I imagine agents I imagine personal assistant all of that back in 2019 when I first saw GPT-2 so I think but you just have to like believe and you have to because most people have like this almost like you know there's a suspension of disbelief like suspension

4. 42:38

   of like you have to actually believe you have to truly embrace that and go against your instinct to because like i think there's a human instinct oh there's all these reasons why this would not work and all people implicitly treat things as static yeah and the difference with you is that your default assumption is that things will change exponentially yes that's what's unusual about you yes so so having embraced that as as a as a as a kid like reading sci-fi and reading Kurt Ray Kurzweil and all of that.

5. 43:09

   I think just you created two things in me. One is an ability to accept change and like be okay with change. Computers are gonna do more and more of the things of my skills. Not just accept, expect. Expect, and then expect and build towards that. Let's get where the puck is going. And the puck is moving faster and faster. It is moving faster and faster. That's what it needs. But I feel more like in my elements right now because...

6. 43:40

   Well, because nobody else can keep up with you.